Category Archives: Not Categorized

Debate of QE Termination a Head Fake Expect Market Rallies Upon Completion of QE2

“The USSR had two newspapers, Pravda and Izvestia.  In the Russian language, “pravda” means truth and “izvestia” means news.  The saying amongst the Russian people put the situation in a nutshell:  “There’s no Pravda in Izvestia and there’s no Izvestia in Pravda”.” – The Privateer ‘You heard it here first’ and ‘Mark my words’ are the hackneyed phrases that come to […]

TIC Monthly Reports on Cross-Border Financial Flows

Foreigners’ Acquisitions of Long-term Securities (years ascending, start 2009) 1 Gross Purchases of Domestic U.S. Securities 20479.7 24985.6 21293.9 25844.8 2519.6 2127.4 2191.7 2276.1 2 Gross Sales of Domestic U.S. Securities 19840.9 24075.0 20580.6 24915.0 2426.0 2053.4 2117.3 2243.7 3 Domestic Securities Purchased, net (line 1 less line 2) /1 638.9 910.6 713.2 929.8 93.6 73.9 74.4 32.4 4 Private, net […]

Stock Market Strategy: Liquidity, Yen Carry and the New Paradigm

A paradigmatic shift in market behavior occurred after the collapse of 2008. The commonly accepted drivers of market direction, most especially economic cycles, no longer applies in this post apocalyptic financial farce. In fact, constant Fed / Government intervention and outright manipulation has produced a parallel universe where “good” economic news is bad for the markets and “bad” economic news […]

Will We Ever Learn?: The Scary Similarities of the Subprime Mortgage and Junk Bond Crises

I have never claimed to be a market historian, but the obvious similarities of the Subprime and Junk Bond crises are staggering even to the casual observer. Maybe it is a confluence of my recent reading of Sorkin’s “Too Big to Fail”, Lewis’s “The Big Short”, and Klarman’s “Margin of Safety” that brings the parallels into clear focus, but I […]

Stock Market Strategy: Understanding Fed Speak & Economic Statistics

Guest Post: M.S. Howells & Co. Jose Mazas – ‘The Art of Lying’ To be the top economist in the nation, you have to be a good manipulator. Greenspan let it slip once. He said, “‘I know you believe you understand what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what […]

News that Moves Markets: Further Evidence of Government Manipulated Credit Markets & Continued Evidence of the Phase II Precious Metals Bull Market

Reducing the Noise: A look at the stories that really matter Evidence of a Government Manipulated Credit Market: ZeroHedge writes: “…over the past 30 years, the 1 Year inflation expectations has tracked the moves in the 2 Year bond very closely. Until today: the 1 year inflation expectations jumped from 3.4% to 4.6%, a 1.2% jump in one month, this […]

Understanding the Government Manipulated Credit Market Evolution

The fall and financial destruction of 2008 launched a brand-new era for the credit markets. An era marked by government intervention and outright manipulation all committed in broad daylight under the protection of financial apocalyptic prophecies. Our self-styled financial superheroes (Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben “Helicopter” Bernanke), wield their collective financial imagination and money printing press like Thor’s […]

Japan Tragedy & Gulf of Mexico BP Spill Follow Similar News Cycle / Precious Metals Outlook

The Japanese tragedy continues to unfold and I, like the rest of you, watch on in horror. Meanwhile, the toxic sludge spewing from the traditional financial media outlets is at full throttle with spigots wide open.  Nothing like a good tragedy to create hysteria and boost ratings. I’d like to take it down a notch and offer a reality check: […]

News that Moves Markets: Housing Double Dip, Italy Plunge, Korean Bank Run, ECB Emergency Borrowing, NYSE Short Interest Extremely Low

Reducing the Noise: A look at the stories that really matter A quick perusal of the stories below should result in the immediate understanding of why equity markets are lower this week.  The fairly heady equity gains of Feb. have been mostly neutralized in two days. This should not be a surprise to anyone actually paying attention the the signs. From […]

Precious Metals Outlook: Newmont(NEM) Takeover of Fronteer(FRG) Evidence of Phase II

Update: Three Phases of the Secular Bull Market in Gold – By Gary Rosenthal In our first installment of the ‘Three Phases’ manifesto I wrote: Phase II: During phase II the rising pattern of gold will begin to accelerate .  However, the gold mining stocks will experience rising relative strength verses the metal as explosive quarterly earnings reports bring attention to the sector. Takeovers […]