Reducing the Noise: A look at the stories that really matter

Evidence of a Government Manipulated Credit Market: ZeroHedge writes:

“…over the past 30 years, the 1 Year inflation expectations has tracked the moves in the 2 Year bond very closely. Until today: the 1 year inflation expectations jumped from 3.4% to 4.6%, a 1.2% jump in one month, this is the single highest monthly jump in a decade since the 1.4% jump in December 2001, following the deflationary knee jerk reaction from the September 11 attacks. But what is most interesting… the spread between the 1 Year inflation expectation and the 2 year bond yield is now at a record wide. This means that either consumers and bonds are at record odds over how they view the inflationary environment in the future, or that there is no real bond market in the short end (all the way up to the 2 Year bond), which is dictated purely by the Fed, and its monetization activity.”

We have contended for some time now that the 2nd phase of the Precious Metals bull market will coincide with explosive earnings growth of the mining companies. This EPS growth will naturally attract capital flows from Wall St. , which is well versed in the dynamics of price relative to earnings. The story below suggests the drilling companies will be primary examples of ebullient earnings growth….

Reuters Summit-Tight mine labor, equipment to slow future plans

NEW YORK, March 25 (Reuters) – Top North American miners of gold, copper and iron ore all said this week that a sudden ramp-up of mining projects has begun to squeeze labor and equipment and before long will slow or delay projects.

Executives talking to Reuters at this year’s Mining and Steel Summit said, skilled labor, especially geologists and mining engineers, were hard to come by and lead times on heavy equipment has been stretched out for weeks or months.

While none said their current plans were being stalled by shortages–the largest miners have lengthy planning processes and lucrative compensation packages to keep top talent–but, the day was not long off when projects would feel the crunch.

“If you add up all of the projects people want to bring online, there are not enough qualified workers to make it happen,” said Laurie Brlas, chief financial officer for iron ore miner Cliffs Natural Resources , adding, “You are seeing that everywhere. We are definitely seeing it.”Metal prices have advanced to either record or long-term highs since the start of the year, impelling miners to restart idled mines, expand current projects or develop new ones.

At the Prospectors and Developers Conference in early March in Toronto, junior miners and developers also said tight labor was rapidly worsening, and likely to accelerate costs, squeeze margins, and threaten some projects.

Cliffs got a taste of the crunch when it began to develop a new body of chrome ore.

“We asked five engineering houses to bid on our project. Three of them said, We have no resources. We can’t,” she said.

Major Drilling , a mine driller specializing in difficult locations, was surprised by the rapid ramp-up of demand for its services so far this year, comparing it with the swift slowdown of late 2008. Though Barrick Gold Chief Executive Aaron Regent did not think the recent pick up in mining projects was en par with the breakneck pace of 2008’s boom, he said, “It’s obvious that things are heading up.”

Nevertheless, to keep skilled labor in places like Tanzania and South America the world’s largest gold miner was having to pay wage increases of 70 percent to reflect local inflation rates. Western Australia’s multitude of projects also commanded sizable pay hikes, though wage rates in the United States and Canada were fairly benign, he said. While Major Drilling has plenty of drill rigs, it does not have enough crews to operate them. With many miners ramping up at the same time, it has had to curry favor to keep talent. “Some guy wants a special truck. It costs $5,000 more and he doesn’t need it, but he wants it. So, he gets it. You are in a skills intensive industry,” said CEO Francis McGuire.

Goldcorp CEO Chuck Jeannes said his company was not seeing slowdowns, but for some equipment, he might have to wait 50 weeks instead of 35 or 40 weeks a year ago. “It means you place those orders earlier,” he said. As a supplier, Major Drilling must decide which assignments to take. Miners that understand the exigencies of the shortages and are willing to pay will likely win the service. On the other hand, he described one company that stuck to its rules requiring outside bidders for part of a project. “We’re saying, ‘What do you mean you have to go to bid? There are no drills out there. We’re here. We can start today. In that case, our price is going to go way up,” said McGuire. “Companies that do that are going to have a heck of a problem getting their projects done,” he added. Furthermore, he said, a number of critical supplies have been showing up later and later and quality has declined. For example, machines are working 24 hours and equipment gets  stressed, so engines regularly blow. “Something as simple as an engine for a pick-up truck. In September, you could buy that anywhere in the world, any time. Now, it’s a four-month wait no matter where you are,” he said. When Major Drilling found a country with eight of the engines, it bought them and shipped them around the world.

“That is symptomatic of the extremely rapid ramp-up. It’s a very difficult 3 to 6 months as the ramp-up goes forward.”

Disclosure: We own shares of Major Drilling (MDI)

Tags: bond market, Fed, Inflation, Major Drilling, MDI, monetization, precious metals, Zero Hedge

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Over the last couple of weeks we have witnessed a series of conflicting reports from all over the media complex as to why equity markets are under pressure. Predictably, as soon as the markets recover a bit these same pundits come up with all sorts of reasons to cheer.  Needless to say these hysterical reports, bullish or bearish, are entirely worthless.  CNBC, with its ridiculous “fat finger” report, has proved its irrelevance as a financial news source. In fact, this embarrassing story (released with less than an 1/2 hour to go in the trading session) stinks of manipulation and seems to implicate CNBC as a pawn in a propaganda ring.

But I digress, my purpose today is to offer a little clarity to the situation. So without any further ado, let’s map the market developments and see what, if any, conclusions may be reached.

Support:

Government support is the primary reason equity markets have traded higher over the last year. That support has taken the form of, to name a few, ‘cash for clunkers’, foreclosure prevention, home buyer credits and a myriad of Fed liquidity programs.

The result of this support has been the release of government supplied economic numbers that appear promising and suggest GDP expansion (Did you pick up the sarcasm in that sentence? Sorry!).

To sum up, large quantities of Fed-provided quantitative easing and rosy economic numbers are the fuel driving markets higher.

Now Europe and the European Central Bank (ECB) have joined the fray. Supposedly close to $1trillion of liquidity will be thrown into the gaping mouth of the debt monster.

Pressure:

Abysmal – as in the size of an abyss – amounts of world debt are swallowing up prodigious amounts of liquidity.

China - China’s equity markets have for some time been a leading indicator for US markets and risk assets in general.  Recently, the Shanghai Index reached into bear market territory with a 20% decline from the highs of the year.  This is not a good omen.  Moreover, China’s economic expansion could be labeled the lynchpin of world economic growth and the recent measures by China’s central bank to tighten liquidity is, to say the least, problematic for a world drowning in debt. The recent increase in consumer prices of 2.8% in China only exacerbate the problem as it would appear inflation is accelerating.

GS – Common knowledge suggests the markets swooned because of violence in Greece. This is absolutely not the case.  We can draw a direct line to the beginning of this most recent market drop and the day Goldman Sachs faced the Senate tribunal.  Government crucifying of the financial space is heating up and will only get worse as senators fight for re election this November.  GS is the undisputed heavyweight champ of the financial space and if they fall the financials as a whole will experience painful P.E. multiple contraction.  In the last few weeks GS’s credit curve has inverted. Credit protection on GS cost more for 1 year than 5 years. If this trend persists a debt downgrade for GS could be in the offing which would in turn send financial shares tumbling.

This Just In: As I write this the “Senate Finance Committee votes on amendment to create a new ratings agency; yay’s have it 64-35, amendment agreed to…” Can you hear that? That’s the sound of a GS debt downgrade being written. The congressionally approved ratings body will likely remove the conflict of interest inherent in the current private rating agencies business model. Hence, we would not be surprised to see Moody/Fitch/S&P make a preemptive downgrade.

Financial Group (FINs) – FINs have always been a leading indicator for overall market direction. If GS drags the FINs down the rest of the market will suffer. Make no mistake, as the volume of negative news and behavior towards the FINs grows louder the equity markets will suffer.

Andrew Cuomo Investigating Whether Banks Duped Rating Agencies – Huffington Post

Senators Seek Proprietary Trading Ban for Big Banks – WSJ

Greece – I would be remiss if I didn’t include this component as part of the pressure on the markets. The proposed Trillion $ bailout seems dubious at best.  Lest we forget weeks were required to raise just $30 billion and now somehow the finance ministers got together over the weekend and $700 billion was pledged?! Now these ministers must go back to their respective countries and try to get funding. This funding request should be a tough sell. After all, the German people recently voted the ruling party out of one house after the first 40 bil Euro bailout.  In fact, rumor has it a reintroduction of the German Mark may be in the offing. How about England? They have yet to participate in any bailout and now elections have created a coalition (read: do nothing) government.

The simple fact remains that all this talk of bailouts is actually missing the real point: Greece has a solvency issue not a liquidity issue.

Conclusions/Questions:

Q: Will liquidity expansion trump debt implosion?

Q: Will excess liquidity continue to find its way into the equity markets?

Q: Will Chinese tightening and supposed European austerity plans actually drain marginal liquidity?

C: As my mom would say, “we must live the questions and the answers will reveal themselves.” So, remain vigilant, defend principal and let the markets be your guide. Don’t force your will on the market and avoid complacency at all costs.

C: No matter which is the victor, the Tidal Wave of Liquidity or the Trench of Debt, one asset class will not only survive but flourish.  The precious metals, Gold and Silver, are now advancing to new highs against all fiat currencies. I have written repeatedly over the last few years that the true inflection point for Gold and Silver will arrive when their values increase even in the face of a rising US$.  The time is now.  Please hold on to the Bar!

Tags: China, Credit, ECB, euro, Fed, financial, gold, Goldman Sachs, Greece, GS, Inflation, precious metals, silver, US$

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Is it a bear or a windmill we’re stalking?

You may find yourself asking that question as the equity markets drift higher seemingly oblivious to a myriad of negative news.  Classic commentary such as “the market climbs a wall of worry” or “the trend is your friend” are being bandied about with increased regularity.  Of course, these sayings are useless when the bottom falls out of the market but for now they appear reassuring as they add to the overwhelming feeling of complacency pervading the equity markets.

In the interest of  remaining open-minded and having a strong desire to avoid Don Quixote’s fate, I will offer the following analysis that could buttress a case for continued equity price support. 

Instead of relying on hackneyed phases and static commentary let’s focus on the building strength of the inflation trade.  Yesterday, the FOMC minutes were released with the following headlines… 

FOMC Minutes Released: Fed says economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in early 2010, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time

Fed Minutes say if economic outlook worsened or trend inflation declined further, “extended period” of low rates could last “quite some time” – Reuters

Read complete FOMC Minutes  

 The Fed clearly feels inflation is of no concern. Apparently, all FOMC members with the exception of Hoenig are unwilling or unable to read commodity price charts.  Several key raw materials are experiencing impressive price appreciation as seen in the following charts…

Copper:

Crude Oil:

Platinum:

Palladium:

If this commodity price surge continues then conceivably equity prices could continue to grind higher as often happens at the beginning of an inflationary period.  You may notice, I did not include a Gold or Silver price chart in the above group.  As you will see below, Gold and Silver prices have yet to hit a new high and will need to do so for the inflation trade theory to be legitimate.  

Gold:

Silver:

Tags: bear market, commodities, copper, crude, equity markets, Fed, FOMC, gold, Inflation, OIL, palladium, platinum, silver

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Euro zone gives Greece 30 days to show good on deficit – Reuters

The tsunami of Greek fear begins to ebb and like proverbial clockwork the US$ drops almost 1%, the equity markets rally over 1% and Gold runs back above the $1100 level up over 1.5%.

By now, as readers of this blog, the financial market behavior described above should come as no surprise.  I exposed the market’s playbook on Feb. 9th and directly addressed the perennial gold bears by saying, “They have not owned Gold during its nearly 300% increase over the last 10 years, but somehow, through a haze of delusional arrogance, they are sure prices have peaked.”

In the five days since that comment Gold has rallied 5%.  Coincidence? Maybe. I’ll concede, sometimes we’re simply lucky, but when understanding is acute luck becomes more pervasive and that, my friends, is called success.

For the last few months, the fear of  reduced stimulus and quantitative easing has gripped the markets. In an apparent effort to support the US$, government officials and Fed members have raised the expectations of economic growth and reduced expectations of Q.E.. I have, time and again, called this type of  jawboning nothing more than propaganda. I explained as much in my Jan. 20th post and highlighted the “need for a new round of stimulus” demand from the conference of mayors on Jan. 22nd as the beginning of a shift in the wind.

Well, today, I would like to say, the wind is a steady 10-15kts in the direction of stimulus and looks to be increasing over the coming weeks.  Evidence for this forecast below…

IMF tells bankers to rethink inflation – WSJ

WSJ reports the IMF’s top economist, Olivier Blanchard, says central bankers should consider aiming for a higher inflation rate than they do currently to lessen the chances of repeating the recent severe recession. Mr. Blanchard said the global economic downturn revealed flaws in macroeconomic policy, especially the reliance primarily on interest rates to manage economies. Although Japan had fallen into a decade-long funk despite low inflation and low interest rates, “most people convinced themselves that the Japanese didn’t know what they were doing,” Mr. Blanchard said in an interview. In a new paper with two other IMF economists, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia and Paolo Mauro, Mr. Blanchard says policy makers need to consider radically different approaches to deal with major banking crises, pandemics or terrorist attacks. In particular, the IMF paper suggests shooting for a higher-level inflation in “normal time in order to increase the room for monetary policy to react to such shocks.” Central banks may want to target 4% inflation, rather than the 2% target that most central banks now try to achieve, the IMF paper says.

Australian Finance Minister Says More Stimulus Needed

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Australian Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner said the nation’s economy remains fragile and that it will require more stimulus this year.

Australia’s long-term debt, accumulated through the global financial crisis, is also a serious matter, Tanner said on Network Ten’s “Meet the Press” program.

Read More…

G-7 Vows to Keep Economic Stimulus Even as Budget Deficits Grow

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Group of Seven finance ministers pledged to press ahead with economic stimulus measures even as investors intensify their focus on mounting budget deficits.

Read More…

In conclusion, I’d like to accentuate the following analysis of the Japanese experience with private sector de-leveraging. I feel these issues are at the very center of the problems facing our markets…

Richard Koo’s book about the lessons from Japan’s balance sheet recession: The crux of his analysis is that governments have no option but to stimulate aggressively all the while the private sector is de-leveraging. ANY attempt at fiscal cuts simply results in renewed recession and a further loss of confidence, thus making it even harder and more costly to sustain any subsequent recovery and hence the budget deficit ends up bigger than before.

Tags: equity markets, euro, gold, Greece, IMF, Inflation, QE, Quantitative Easing, Stimulus, US$

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NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The news that the sovereign wealth fund of Dubai requested a postponement of billions of dollars of debt this week could pose a big problem for U.S. banks…

…Bove said the underlying problem is that there is a lot of uncertainty floating around. For example, there’s little information available about counterparty derivatives, guarantees that transfer default risk from lenders to other financial institutions. And it’s unknown how much of Dubai World’s debt guarantee is held by U.S. banks. Read More…

Stock Market Investing: The above story along with many others have filled the airwaves and blogosphere over the last 4 days. I will refrain from adding my voice to the din. Moreover, endeavoring to postulate on the repercussions seems to me a fool’s errand. The sheer plethora of moving parts and back room deals makes a supposition worthless.

I will, however, offer some insight to a more pressing question: How will this event effect the US$, the equity markets and the price of Gold?

An avid reader of this blog will find the answer both simple and familiar. Bad news on the global economic front equates to good news for the U.S. equity markets and the price of precious metals, Gold and Silver.

Investment Strategy: The legend for deciphering this market environment:

Neg.Eco.News = Con’t.Q.E.; (Q.E. = Quantitative Easing; catchall for liquidity creation)

Con’t.Q.E. = Con’t.US$.Dval.; (US$. Dval = US$ devaluation)

Con’t. US$.Dval = Exponential Gold and Silver price increases + higher US equity prices

This legend, in all likelihood, will remain in force until major policy changes occur within the White House, U.S. Treasury and Fed. Never in history has the systematic devaluation of a currency led to sustained economic recovery and long-term growth. However, without fail, said devaluation leads to inflation, often hyperinflation, and a flight out of the currency into hard assets. The move unfolding in the price of Gold and Silver will be for most unimaginable, but for the few, the proud, the aware, it will be a move of a lifetime.

Tags: Dubai, Fed, gold, hyperinflation, Inflation, investment strategy, precious metals, Quantitative Easing, silver, stock market investing, U.S. treasury, US$, white house

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Juggling the recent debt crisis in Dubai, reports of a growing asset bubble, the latest unemployment data, and last Thursday’s turkey leftovers can present a formidable task for even the most seasoned of investors.  During times like these, why not sit back, loosen up the belt, and digest an admittedly ‘lite’ version of market commentary?  Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist and Managing Director of Equity Research at Raymond James & Associates, as well as Bill Gross, Managing Director at the Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), recently weighed in, releasing their own market thoughts.

Saut’s November 30th commentary is titled, “Don’t Worry About the Dollar!” Citing a previous occurrence during the 1970′s, he believes that stock market investors’ worries about inflation are largely overblown.  Most notably, he predicts that any continued weakness in the US Dollar will be more-than-offset by rising stock prices.  As he explains,

Nevertheless, the dollar’s weakness has clearly been very positive for our “stuff stocks” (precious/base-metals, agriculture, energy, cement, timber, etc.), as well as stocks in general, and we have been bullish. Most recently, we have suggested, “that with credit spreads below their pre-Lehman bankruptcy levels there should be no reason why the equity markets can’t ‘fill up’ the downside vacuum created in the charts by said bankruptcy… That gives the S&P 500 an upside target of 1200 – 1250”…

Saut goes on to support his bullish theory with a myriad of facts.  In particular, he points to recent decreasing jobless claims, dramatic increases in labor productivity, rising corporate profits, and lowering inventories as potential catalysts for an economic rebound.  More specifically, after initially cutting back on labor, he expects that businesses will soon look to reinvest profits, hire new workers, and replenish those declining inventories.  Such a move could reinvigorate consumer demand and jump-start our ailing economy.

Furthermore, he views last week’s Dubai debt crisis as a symptom of the previous real estate bubble, and not a sign of another pending systemic crisis.  Finally, as he has suggested over the previous few months, he is near-term bullish large cap stocks.

Meanwhile, in Bill Gross’s November commentary, titled, “Anything but .01%,” he points out the depressingly anemic returns generated by most of today’s money market accounts.  Indeed, although maintaining low interest rates may be in the economy’s best interests, they are also forcing investors to flee supposedly “riskless” investments in order to chase more attractive returns.  This has sparked a considerable rise in asset prices.

Nonetheless, Gross does not foresee the Fed raising rates any time soon.  As we have seen, the private sector has shown little traction this year, with government spending largely assuming the role of oiling the gears of this economy.  Until GDP picks up considerably, unemployment shows signs of reversing, and private sector demand replaces the need for government stimulus, rates are likely to remain low.  As Gross notes,

The Fed is trying to reflate the U.S. economy.  The process of reflation involves lowering short-term rates to such a painful level that investors are forced or enticed to term out their short-term cash into higher-risk bonds or stocks.  Once your cash has recapitalized and revitalized corporate America and homeowners, well, then the Fed will start to be concerned about inflation-not until.

Looking forward, Gross has a few ideas for skittish investors to consider.  First, long term investors must ready themselves for a “New Normal” economy to take effect.  In essence, they should expect that as companies continue to deleverage, corporate growth slows, and the government’s role in the economy expands, corporate profits will take a hit.  As a result, dividend and interest payments are also likely to suffer; end result, investors may need to lower their expectations when it comes to returns.

According to Gross, part of the reason why Warren Buffett recently invested in the railroads was to simply put his money to work, rather than let it languish in a low-yielding account (I covered this subject in more depth  in my previous blog).  Like Buffett, Gross believes investors would be wise to follow suit.  In this “New Normal” economy, he suggests targeting low-growth, high-yielding companies like utilities.  Although utilities may not excite investors from a return standpoint, they do offer reliable cash flow (dividends), and normally grow in line with the broader economy.

Tags: Bill Gross, debt crisis, Dubai, economy, equity markets, GDP, Inflation, inventories, Jeffrey Saut, jobless, labor productivity, New Normal, PIMCO, precious metals, Raymond James, real estate bubble, U.S. Dollar, utilities, Warren Buffett

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Stock Market Investing: A battle between investment disciplines has developed over the last 3 weeks. As discussed in the Oct. 28th post, numerous warning signs of a technical nature are flashing. However, last week’s news headlines were replete with US$ bearish/equity market bullish fundamental data. Which discipline will ultimately prevail, technical or fundamental? The answer is unclear, for now we remain bullish with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Investment Strategy: Never fight the trend. If the equity markets want to advance we will gladly participate and enjoy the ride. Stay focused on the areas of the market that have the strongest fundamentals for moving higher; namely the commodity space as this rally is pure and simple a vote against the US$. Remain over-weighted in the precious metals. The relative out-performance of this group was significant during the last market sell off which was, I will humbly remind you, anticipated by RCM.

Now, I would like to take you on a journey through some of the key events of last week. My intention is to reduce the noise generated from traditional news outlets and focus your attention on the important issues driving the markets. You will see how these issues have led to the resumption of the US$ breakdown and the mirror image breakout of the equity markets.

We will begin with some excerpts from the FOMC meeting on Nov. 4th. There was an expectation that the Fed may change wording to appear more US$ supportive. In the prior two weeks, the simple possibility of a discussion about an exit strategy for the current liquidity glut was used as an excuse by traders to bolster the US$. However, as you will read below, the Fed has no intention of changing the policy at this time…

ECONX Summary of FOMC policy statement; maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent
…Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.

Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time. (Is this a boldfaced lie? Surely the Fed knows inflation is a currency event, so why pretend there is no inflation when the US$ is collapsing in value? Simple: the scenario is called “between a rock and a hard place.” If the Fed admits inflation is a problem then easy liquidity policies are more difficult to maintain.)

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trln of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 bln of agency debt…(Logic suggests rates must remain low while the Fed is buying said debt.) In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee will gradually slow the pace of its purchases of both agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010….

…And so the US$ began to lose its bid the minute this story broke on Wednesday last week. In response, the price of Gold rallied and the precious metals mining companies ended the week at new highs on major volume. Interestingly, this group has seen a lot of volume accumulation during a time when the rest of the equity markets are seeing volume selling and/or low volume rallies. This is one sure reason for the strong relative price out-performance the group has enjoyed.

Why does the Fed have no intention of changing policy? Because the economy is in trouble, plain and simple…

September Consumer Credit -$14.8 bln vs -$10.0 bln consensus, prior revised to -$9.9 bln from -$12.0 bln

As expected, consumer credit fell for the eighth consecutive month. Credit declined $14.8 billion in September, far worse than the consensus forecast of -$10.0 billion. The consumer credit decline for August was revised up to -$9.9 billion from -$12.0 billion. The reason for the decline in consumer credit has not changed. Consumers continue to believe they too highly leveraged and are working to repay their debts.

At the same time, banks are worried about possible loan defaults, and in return, they have tightened lending conditions and pulled available credit from even the most credit worthy borrowers.

…Without the consumer there will not be a sustained economic recovery. Furthermore, the state of small business in America would suggest consumer credit is not likely to see a recovery any time soon…

Business bankruptcy filings increased 7% in October - WSJ reports business bankruptcy filings jumped in October, reversing two consecutive months of declining commercial filings and indicating that bankruptcies could continue to rise as the economy struggles to stabilize.
…Add to business bankruptcy problems the number of banks going bankrupt themselves and you get a morbid U.S. economic picture demanding Fed leniency…

Nine U.S. banks seized in largest one-day haul – Reuters.com reports U.S. authorities seized nine failed banks, the most in a single day since the financial crisis began and the latest stark sign that substantial parts of the nation’s banking industry are being crippled by bad loans.

Last month, 7,771 businesses filed for bankruptcy protection, compared to 7,271 that sought shelter from creditors in September, according to new data from Automated Access to Court Electronic Records, or AACER. After two months of decline, the 7% rise in commercial filings shows that businesses are still struggling to access financing and are facing weak demand for their products..

Five more banks fail – 120 for the year - CNN Money.com CNN Money.com reports five banks failed late Friday, bringing the 2009 tally to 120. The biggest to fall was United Commercial Bank of San Francisco, which had 63 U.S. branches as well as operations in Hong Kong and Shanghai. The bank held deposits totaling $7.5 billion.

A couple of weeks ago, we warned the “equity markets are trading at these lofty levels because of liquidity not reality and if the Fed-controlled gravy train of easy credit stops, then trouble will ensue.” Well, when you combine recent Fed comments with terrible economic data the result is a gravy train of liquidity that continues to roll and keep equity markets buoyant.

Meanwhile, in this Greek tragedy we are watching unfold, the reciprocal of stronger equity markets is a weak currency. The US$ declines as economic numbers worsen and to add insult to very serious injury, the carry traders are having a field day. I warned “The U.S. $ carry trade will gain steam if European economic recovery/inflation outpaces the U.S. and leads to rate increases”. It seems with every passing week this prophecy gains momentum and the US$ value declines…

Australia raises rates for second straight month - NY Times reports Australia’s central bank on Tuesday raised its benchmark interest rate for the second month in a row, as widely expected, and suggested a gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures amid mounting evidence that the Australian economy is rapidly picking up speed. The increase in its key cash rate, by a quarter-percentage point to 3.5%, makes Australia the only country in the world to have ventured two successive rate increases this year.

Inflationary pressure returns as UK PPI rises - DJ reports U.K. input producer prices rose unexpectedly in October, suggesting that inflationary pressures could be building after remaining muted over the past year, official data released Friday showed. Prices paid by factories for raw materials rose to a 16-month high of 2.6% on the month in October compared with a 0.2% fall in September. On the year input prices rose 0.1%, that was the first annual increase since February, and compares with a steep 6.2% year-on-year decline in September, the Office for National Statistics said. The gains came as a surprise. Economists, on average, were expecting a 0.5% fall on the month and a 6.5% year-on-year drop.

Tags: Bank Failure, bankruptcy, consumer credit, consumers, equity markets, Fed, FOMC, gold, Inflation, interest rates, investment strategy, precious metals, stock market investing, US$

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              As our economy slowly recovers, many investors are concerned with recouping the money they lost during the crisis. Pulling your funds out of investments all together will do nothing to bulk up your savings, while sinking your money into risky funds can do further damage. So, with black-and-white options not offering solutions, where can investors put their money to work?

Many investors are turning to investments that they feel are safe, such as bank CDs or money market mutual funds. The problem with these “safe havens” lies in the low returns. “The average money market fund yields .05 percent, or $5 on a $10,000 deposit.” With rates of return this low, these investments may not be able to keep up with inflation, let alone fill the gaps left by the losses experienced over the last 24 months.

Another option is to do nothing. Yvon Chouinard, founder of the Patagonia sports outlets, says, “There’s no difference between a pessimist who says, ‘Oh it’s hopeless, so don’t bother doing anything’ and an optimist who says, ‘Don’t bother doing anything, it’s going to turn out fine anyway.’ Either way, nothing happens.” The idea of holding on to your portfolio “as is” and wishing for the stocks you currently hold to rebound may work in some instances. But, if time turns out to be your enemy, your retirement years will be funded only by the amount you currently have, minus the effects of inflation.

As investors actively search for ways to re-energize their portfolios, many are returning to real estate. The real-estate market is hovering around the bottom, interest rates remain near record lows and a large inventory gives buyers an abundance of options. On the residential side, many foreclosures and bank-owned properties can now be purchased for a fraction of their value. The same opportunities are becoming available in commercial real estate as owners are unable to pay off or refinance their loans.

As I have mentioned before, real estate can help your portfolio win the battle over inflation. Real estate’s value will return over the next couple of years. When it does, those who invested now will not only recoup their losses, but they will also have the possibility of dramatically increasing their portfolio’s value.

Shaking Our Stone Age Tendencies

Letting our emotions dictate our investment decisions is a risky behavior. Out of instinct, we all get emotional when we earn or lose money. It is in our wiring to feel connected with the money we have accumulated. We tend to panic when our money is in jeopardy.

We make a connection between money and safety. Psychology suggests that we are programmed to protect our safety the same way our ancient ancestors were. Even though we encounter vastly different problems than our ancestors did, we still attempt to solve them in the same way. Moving with the herd used to be crucial to staying alive. Today however, moving with a herd of investors can weaken your portfolio. Pushing money into an investment simply because the majority of others are is usually the exact opposite of what you should be doing.

In the same vein as the herd behavior, is our tendency to make investment decisions based on past success. Just because a strategy worked in the past does not necessarily mean it will work in the present. Markets change dramatically from week to week. Strategies you used in the Dotcom boom of the late nineties may lead to an unpleasant outcome in today’s market. Sticking to market fundamentals is one thing, but taking on blind risk a second time because it worked out the first, is nothing more than a gamble. It is the same concept behind betting on red because the roulette ball fell in a red pocket the previous spin. No matter what your past performance, prudent due diligence is always necessary to gauge the current market trends, analyze risk and make sound investment decisions.

I have encountered a number of studies that suggest we remember the bitter feeling of losing money more acutely than the feelings we have when we earn the same amount in an investment. A few lousy investment decisions and an investor can be turned off indefinitely. It is important to learn from our mistakes and use the knowledge to our advantage. Our emotions can lead us to make decisions that, in hindsight, are horrible ideas. A bad decision is bad no matter what the outcome. Making money out of an emotional decision is lucky, but the decision itself was still the wrong one.

There is no way to completely escape our tendencies to invest based on emotion. But, by being aware of the negative impact our emotions have on our investment decisions, we can limit their influence. Wise approaches such as hiring investment professionals, practicing prudent due diligence and planning sound exit strategies can all help us become better investors.

Bank Closures v. the FDIC

Last week, federal regulators seized seven more banks- three in Florida and one each in Georgia, Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin. The bank failures brought the year’s total to 106, which is the most since the savings and loan debacle brought about 181 failures in 1992.  Plus, with 416 banks on the FDIC’s watch list, the number of bank failures is expected to rise before the end of the year. With bank closures quickly absorbing millions of dollars from the FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund, is it possible that our savings accounts are realistically still protected?

The FDIC operates like a basic insurance policy, except banks are the customers instead of individuals or groups of individuals. Banks pay insurance premiums to the FDIC in exchange for its commitment to protect their depositors’ money. In the late 1920s, when banks closed at an alarming rate, depositors had no protection from bank failures. Between 1929 and 1933, banks lost an estimated $1.3 billion of their customers’ money. Today, the FDIC protects several trillion dollars worth of deposits. But as of June, it only had $10.4 billion in its deposit insurance fund—down from about $45 billion earlier this year.

The FDIC’s reserves have quickly depleted as the cost of bank failures outpace the fees the corporation collects. Last month, as bank closures continued to mount, the FDIC’s board of directors considered four ways to bulk up the insurance fund. The options considered were: borrow from healthy banks, borrow from the treasury, levy a special fee on banks or collect regular premiums early.

Borrowing from healthy banks would reduce the amount of money available to the private sector. Borrowing from the Treasury could send the wrong message to the public and have adverse effects on the banking industry. Levying a special fee on banks could push those on the edge into failure. The last option, albeit not particularly attractive either, is to collect regular premiums early. Deciding to follow through with this option, the FDIC stated it “adopted a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would require insured institutions to prepay their estimated quarterly risk-based assessments for the fourth quarter of 2009 and for all of 2010, 2011 and 2012.” The press release indicated that the FDIC estimates prepayments will total approximately $45 billion.

Once approved, the proposed prepayments could give banks a bill for three years of premiums by the end of this year. While the requirement would put banks in a tough situation, the FDIC does not seem to think banks will find it too cumbersome. The FDIC believes that “the banking industry has substantial liquidity to prepay assessments.” As stated in the press release, “As of June 30, FDIC-insured institutions held more than $1.3 trillion in liquid balances, or 22 percent more than they did a year ago.”

The FDIC does have the capability to protect our deposits. However, initiatives that charge banks three years’ worth of premiums at once could help the FDIC weather an onslaught of bank closures without requiring the government to print more money…I hope. 

All My Best,

Thomas J. Powell

Tags: asset management, Bank Failure, Billion, CD, commercial real estate, crisis, Dotcom boom, ELP Capital, FDIC, herd behavior, high return, Inflation, insurance, insured institution, invest based on emotion, low return, Patagonia, prepayments, Real estate, registered advisor, residential real estate, risky behavior, Thomas J. Powell, thomas powell, tom powell, Trillion, Yvon Chouinard

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              Investors at all levels have been tempted to stash their savings away in what they view as safe places: federally-insured banks, gold, their mattresses. But, as retirement creeps closer, or for some of you, continues on, it is difficult to protect the value of what you have. It is even more difficult to take what you have and get it to work for you. However, difficult does not mean impossible. There are tremendous opportunities in this economic climate and these opportunities can do wonders for your future.

              There is no direct financial path to retirement safety, but putting some basic concepts to work can give your investment portfolio a boost and start you in the right direction. A 60-year-old investor needs to plan for at least 30 years of financial security, so investing in the short-term is not sufficient. Planning for the long-term comes with one major obstacle: inflation. Shoving your cash into a large, everything-proof safe will ensure that the cash is always available, but inflation is resistant to safes and will still eat away at your value. Inflation adds to the puzzle of retirement planning, but keeping a stash of conservative investments can help save your portfolio from being deteriorated by inflation.

              Investors do not have to fear that most conservative money-market funds or bonds issued by the federal government will lose their money. But, these are short-term protection strategies. The returns offered by these investments are likely not enough to stave off inflation. If the cost of living significantly rises, you are going to want your savings to do the same. Many investors are turning to TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) for peace of mind. TIPS can be very helpful in side stepping inflation woes, but in a low-inflation environment, your returns will be lower than many other fixed-income securities. So, do not go overboard with TIPS.

              Your best weapon is diversification. Having a diverse mix of investments is a great strategy for both conservative and more risk-adverse investors. Diversification will always be your best hedge against inflation. Setting up a brief meeting with a registered investment adviser will help you to build a diverse portfolio that meets your needs. Playing it too safe now is not something you want to try and correct years after retirement. Running out of money later in life is something you can, and should, protect against now. And, again, this economic climate is filled with long-term investment opportunities.

Living Vicariously Through Predictions

              Despite grim news reported for September that housing starts came in lower than expected, they rose from August rates. The tendency to be disappointed when expectations are not fulfilled adds to the bad news already being forced on us during these difficult times. When a report from the Commerce Department was released in Washington earlier this week, newspapers jumped at the chance to report that the glass was half empty. All predictions aside, housing starts still showed improvement.

              According to The Wall Street Journal, “The rise in housing starts came in at 0.5 percent, climbing to a seasonally adjusted 590,000 annual rate compared to the prior month.”[1]  Housing starts improved, but major media outlets pumped out headlines such as “Bummer for Housing Starts” (Forbes) and “Housing Starts Miss Expectations” (CNNMoney.com). The media ignored projections made by 76 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Their estimates predicted that housing starts would rise somewhere between a rate of 582,000 to 630,000. But, their estimates were made at a time when the August rate was thought to be 598,000. When a correction to the August figures brought the number down to 587,000, the predictions had already been made. If the numbers the economists were using were off by 11,000, then you could assume most of them would have lowered their expectations by the same amount. This would have made the average of the 76 predictions stand at 595,000; which is very close to the recently reported 590,000 figure.

              The point of all of this is that our economy still showed a humble sign of improvement. With the amount of slack still present in the housing industry, it is a small feat to break ground on any amount of new homes. Looking through rose-colored lenses will not do us any good, we need to be realistic. In that same vein, hammering out pessimistic stories when they are not realistic will only bring down the confidence upon which our markets rely. A group of surveyed economists who were making predictions based on false numbers should not have a drastic impact on our economic situation. As Charles Mackay wrote in his well-noted “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” in 1841: “Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”

              Negativity spreads quickly. We have enough to go mad over without becoming disappointed when a group of “experts” do not have their predictions come true. I think the real worry here should be in our experts’ ability to make accurate predictions. Instead of “Bummer for Housing Starts” how about “Experts off Again” or “The Facts the Experts Couldn’t See Coming”?  

Oh! I Didn’t See You There, Small Businesses

              Small-business advocates have criticized the White House for not giving more attention to small businesses. But, on Wednesday the Obama Administration announced that it would use funds leftover from the $700 billion bailout package to aid small businesses. Discussion of the new program came in response to dissatisfaction with the initial wave of bailouts that aimed at helping large financial firms and neglected small businesses. Many policy makers have argued for months that the $700 billion stimulus was only used to balance the books of large banks.

              The new plan, which is still nameless, will aim to increase lending at small, community-based banks. As was the case when individual states were dealt federal funds, the banks will be required to submit somewhat-detailed plans outlining how they plan on using the money. Since the new program will aim to get funds into the hands of small business owners, the banks’ plans will need to detail how they will play a part in this.

              After a number of meetings with community banks that will be scheduled through the end of the year, officials hope to determine the amount of capital that will be distributed. The funds are only to be available to small institutions with less than $1 billion in assets. 

              In his announcement in Washington on Wednesday, President Obama said he was prepared to “shift the government bailout efforts from larger banks to smaller banks because small business owners still have too little access to credit.”[2] Officials behind the new program hope that increasing credit to smaller institutions will energize job growth, which is something that has been reported on relentlessly, but has received little government attention.

              Although the exact amount of the remainder of the stimulus funds is unknown, federal officials agree it is enough to support this new initiative. Having the funds already available and not having to wait on them to be raised will help get the program off the ground. The life of many small businesses could depend on the government’s ability to act quickly. Taking months to consult community bankers may delay the program and inhibit small businesses from acquiring much-needed capital. Small businesses have been ignored thus far and, through innovation and flexibility, they have been able to survive.

Thomas J. Powell

[1] See http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091020-709265.html

[2] See http://www.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUSWAT01385420091021

The discussion of investment strategies in this article should not be considered an offer to buy or sell any investment. As always, consult an investment professional to assist you in meeting your investment goals.

Tags: alternative investments, bailout, Bloomberg, ELP Capital, Finance, gold, hedge, housing starts, Inflation, Investing, investments, mattress, obama, powell perspective, Real estate, Retirement, small businesses, Thomas J. Powell, TIPS

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More economic numbers out this morning that suggest a continuation of the status quo.

The Fed can point to the PPI numbers and pretend there is no inflation…

September Core PPI Y/Y +1.8% vs +2.0% consensus, prior +2.3%

September PPI Y/Y -4.8% vs -4.3% consensus

…So rates can remain low to help the listless housing market…

September Housing Starts 590K vs 610K consensus, prior revised to 587K from 598K

September Building Permits 573K vs 595K consensus, prior revised to 580K from 579K

Somehow, all this data results in a U.S.$ rally, T-bond advance (rate decline) and an equity market sell off. I would expect this counter trend move to be short lived. In fact, there have been some developments regarding the U.S.$ that should concern any U.S. $ optimist.

BEIJING, October 14 (RIA Novosti) – Russia is ready to consider using the Russian and Chinese national currencies instead of the dollar in bilateral oil and gas dealings, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.The premier, currently on a visit to Beijing, said a final decision on the issue can only be made after a thorough expert analysis.”Yesterday, energy companies, in particular Gazprom, raised the question of using the national currency. We are ready to examine the possibility of selling energy resources for rubles, but our Chinese partners need rubles for that. We are also ready to sell for yuans,” Putin said. MORE…

A possible accelerant about to be poured onto the pile of burning U.S.$s may have a UK label. The real estate market in the UK appears to be heating up. Prices for both residential and commercial properties in London are hitting records. If this recovery turns into a trend that moves across the channel to the rest of Western Europe then Ben and Pinocchio could have a real problem.

The U.S. $ carry trade will gain steam if a European economic recovery/inflation outpaces the U.S. and leads to rate increases much like in Austraila (see Oct. 7th post). A lagging real estate market here in the U.S. will make it difficult for Ben to raise rates. Meanwhile, Pinocchio (Geithner) will continue to express the desire for a strong $ as his nose grows…

London Agents ‘Sold Out’ as Home Asking Prices Jump to Record Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — London home sellers raised asking prices to a record high this month and led gains across the U.K. as the shortage of properties for sale intensified, Rightmove Plc said. MORE…

UK property undergoes dramatic recovery - FT
FT reports the UK commercial property market delivered the highest monthly price growth for more than three years in September, capping a remarkable comeback for a sector that looked to have been wiped out only a matter of months ago. Investors are now chasing commercial property and some are complaining that the market has become too hot again. The switch in sentiment has been tangible as investors look to take advantage of a slump that wiped off about 45% from prices from the peak in 2007 by the beginning of the summer. The recovery has been building since, with IPD, the benchmark index, rising 1.1% for September, the highest since June 2006

Tags: China, commercial real estate, Geithner, Inflation, ppi, renewable energy, residential real estate, Russia, UK

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