Author Archives: Bret Rosenthal

About Bret Rosenthal

Interpreting the news that moves markets. Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds

Looming Defaults and the Effect on Currencies, US$ vs Euro

The race to the bottom is on! The only question remaining: Who will blink first? I am referring to the race to default.  As you will see when reading the stories below, the USA and the EU have major cracks in the foundation.  Should Greece and/or Portugal default on debt the Euro would suffer accordingly. However, if and when California […]

Q.E. Will Not and Cannot End at This Time, Zero Hedge/Fed’s Bullard, US Mortgage Originations Seen Plummeting

I wrote yesterday: THE FED WILL NOT REDUCE LIQUIDITY AT THIS TIME. Today, I will reiterate and state: QUANTITATIVE EASING WILL NOT AND CANNOT END AT THIS TIME. This statement may appear to be rather bold in light of the noise emanating from traditional news outlets and the occasional Fed comment.  However, a review of the facts support the notion […]

FED Will Not Reduce Liquidity, Stock Market Investing, China Theme Continued

That’s it! I’ve had it! Enough! Let’s dispense with the absurd, ludicrous, vacuous debate about “imminent” Fed tightening.  The financial airwaves and print are full of this idiotic expectation that the Fed will reduce liquidity soon.  Allow me to be clear: THE FED WILL NOT REDUCE LIQUIDITY AT THIS TIME. The Fed cannot reduce liquidity because the economic environment is […]

Investment Strategy 2010, Welcome to Our Research Room, US$ vs.Yuan

Investment strategy: Many factors will affect our investment strategy in 2010 not the least of which will be the continued development of the Chinese dragon. The transformation of China into an economic powerhouse will lead to many dynamic investment opportunities for those who can separate the proverbial wheat from the shaft. I can think of no better international combine driver than our own research guru, […]

The Inherent Trouble With Too Much Stimulus

  Welcome to 2010!   Now that the holidays are over and last minute Tim Geithner vandalism complete, actual real economic statistics should begin to bleed out.   First up, pending home sales…  ECONX Pending Home Sales M/M -16.0% vs -2.0% consensus, prior +3.9% …Now there is a real figure and one that should surprise no one reading this blog on a regular basis. Moreover, […]

Fannie/Freddie – What Does Treasury Know? By Karl Denninger

Recently, information disseminated by the US government and perpetuated by the financial media regarding residential real estate has confused and misled many.  Apparently, an attempt is afoot to whitewash the numbers in order to increase confidence. Will this ruse succeed? The answer depends on the definition of success. If the object of the ruse is to delay the inevitable, rally the […]

HAPPY NEW YEAR! US$ Strength vs Commodity Strength

Today, let’s review the impact of the December US$ strength on various commodity markets. The results may surprise. Typically, US$ strength leads to lower commodity prices. If a real change in trend has commenced for the US$ then we can expect to see Gold & Oil prices, Copper prices and the CRB index as a whole heading lower.  So, in the immortal […]

December Strength of the US$: Bull or Byproduct

A confluence of dubious “positive” economic numbers, supplied by the U.S. government, has given rise to the US$ bull during the month of December.  If we are to believe the financial media, the debate is over: the US$ reigns supreme again. Almost every day over the last few weeks another commentator, analyst or self-styled market guru jumps on the US$ […]

Happy Holidays, Existing Home Sales, Revised GDP

Welcome to the ‘happy holidays’ edition of the RCM blog. I thought we should begin with a little year end wisdom: “Life isn’t about waiting for the storms to pass. It’s about learning to dance in the rain.” – Vivian Green Managing capital during the last two years required the ownership of solid wading boots and a strong hurricane slicker. […]

The Fed Meeting Fallout, US$ Strength / Smaller than Expected Debt Limit Increase, Shadow Home Inventory on the Rise, State Budget Problems

The Fed chose not to change rates or comments during the Wednesday meeting. While we anticipated this outcome in our Monday post, the market reaction has been anything but expected. In months past the type of Fed commentary exhibited this week led to a lower US$ and inverse strength in commodity and equity markets. This week the results have been […]


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