Healthcare Vote Drives the Equity Markets Higher?! U.S. – China Trade War Brewing

The equity markets move higher responding to the results of the healthcare vote Sunday? If you can’t see through that illogical logic then no amount of reading this blog will help you. Please stop reading this post, don’t pass go and choose a card from the community chest as that seems to be the order of the day.

For the rest of you, I will say that we are still sifting through the data trying to determine the true fallout from said vote. So far, we are fairly certain the biggest beneficiary will be the Central Bank of North Dakota. I will get back to you with more detail when the situation warrants. Until then enjoy this piece from Jim Cramer. Kindly hold your collective groan, we don’t like Jim either but a broken clock…. 

“Passage Of The Healthcare Bill Means The Double-Dip Is Coming” – Market Insight From Permabull Jim Cramer Who Just Turned Bearish

Obamacare Will Topple the Rickety Market By Jim Cramer RealMoney

Either the market doesn’t care that the health care bill will pass –  and it will — or it doesn’t think that the proposal will cost that much — something I think is nuts. Which brings us to a very tenuous crossroad: We have to wonder if this is one of those occasions, like in 2008, where the market doesn’t see the coming catastrophe. Or perhaps the market sees any resolution as positive….


Meanwhile, I suspect the real story from this weekend that will affect markets going forward centers on U.S.- Sino relations. The U.S. equity markets correlated closely with their Chinese counterparts from March ‘09 to Dec. ‘09. However, 2010  ushered in a rather disturbing divergence that has only accelerated in the last four weeks. The question remains whether or not the weakness of the Chinese markets will weigh on our equity markets, but I suspect the following stories will not be a help….

China’s commerce minister: U.S. has the most to lose in a trade war – Washington Post

Washington Post reports that China’s commerce minister warned the United States on Sunday that if it launches a “trade war” against China by levying punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, the United States will suffer the most. Chen Deming also said the U.S. government’s “obsession” with China’s exchange rate could not be seriously addressed until it stopped blocking the export of high-tech products, such as supercomputers and satellites, to China. “If some congressmen insist on labeling China as a currency manipulator and slap punitive tariffs on Chinese products, then the [Chinese] government will find it impossible not to react,” Chen said in an interview with The Washington Post. “If the United States uses the exchange rate to start a new trade war, China will be hurt. But the American people and U.S. companies will be hurt even more.”

Stunner: China Set To Announce Record Trade DEFICIT In March

Say goodbye to China’s “export economy” paradigm. In a stunning development for trade hawks, and pretty much anyone who follows the biggest liquidity bubble in history, China Daily has announced China is about to announce a record trade deficit (yes, not surplus, deficit) for March. This makes the whole CNY undervaluation debate pretty much moot, as even China now moves into the ranks of net importers….


About Bret Rosenthal

Interpreting the news that moves markets. Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds
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