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Aaron Wormus is the managing director of HedgeCo Networks, and part-time financial and technology blogger for Wormus.com.
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Alex Akesson is the author of Hedgefunds-Weblog.com, providing breaking news and interviews for the hedge fund industry.
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Peter J. de Marigny is Portfolio Manager of DITMo® Strategies, an Equity Hedge, Aggressive-Income Objective, Buy/Write Portfolio for an Aggressive-Income Objective used as an Enhanced Cash investment vehicle. Pj is also Head of Risk Alternative Strategies for Newport Beach, CA advisor Renovatio Asset Management. » View Peter J. de Marigny
Ryan Conner is Principal at HedgeCo Securities. As an experienced industry veteran, Ryan Conner offers his opinions on the hedge fund industry and hedge fund strategies.
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Rashida Fleet is involved with consulting and working with managers during the fund launch phase. Her work includes; interviewing managers, collecting information for the HedgeCo database and contributing to the HedgeCo News feed.
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Tim Seymour is co-founder and managing partner of Red Star Asset Management, as well as Chief Operating Officer of the $116 million Red Star Double Alpha Fund.
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Richard Heller Richard Heller is a partner at the New York City law firm of Thompson Hine LLP. His experience is in the formation of private offerings for hedge funds as well as the formation of registered broker-dealers and RIAs.
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Bret Rosenthal Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds.
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Cameron Hight, CFA, is an investment industry veteran with experience from both buy and sell-side firms, including CIBC, DLJ, Lehman Brothers and Afton Capital. He is currently the Founder and President of Alpha Theory™, a Portfolio Management Platform designed to give fundamental money managers the ability to create their own repeatable discipline to organize the complex process of portfolio management.
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This story is quite disturbing. The Obama administration is sliding down a slippery, or should I say, slimy slope. In Q4 of last year fear mongering was the tactic of choice to push policy (e.g. auguring global financial ruin if senators didn’t quickly pass questionable legislation.) In Q1 & Q2 of this year financial market manipulation was the potion incorporated to conjure up support for far-reaching and possibly destructive government controls. Apparently Q3 ushers in a new age of coercion. When I read the story below I wonder: Is this a show of unbridled audacity (to use an Obama term) or is this the beginnings of something altogether more desperate? As ratings slip and agendas meet resistance is this how our “esteemed” president and his “brilliant” entourage conduct themselves?

Please take a good look at the June 30 post. You may feel a more acute impact of the cartoon’s message after reading about the behavior described in the story below. Shouting, expletives and coercion are a common trait for the gaggle depicted.

Geithner vents as overhaul stumbles – WSJ
WSJ reports Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner blasted top U.S. financial regulators in an expletive-laced critique last Friday as frustration grows over the Obama administration’s faltering plan to overhaul U.S. financial regulation, according to people familiar with the meeting.

The proposed regulatory revamp is one of President Barack Obama’s top domestic priorities. But since it was unveiled in June, the plan has been criticized by the financial-services industry, as well as by financial regulators wary of encroachment on their turf. Mr. Geithner told the regulators Friday that “enough is enough,” said one person familiar with the meeting. Mr. Geithner said regulators had been given a chance to air their concerns, but that it was time to stop, this person said.

Among those gathered in the Treasury conference room were Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro and FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair. Friday’s roughly hourlong meeting was described as unusual, not only because of Mr. Geithner’s repeated use of obscenities, but because of the aggressive posture he took with officials from federal agencies generally considered independent of the White House. Mr. Geithner reminded attendees that the administration and Congress set policy, not the regulatory agencies. Mr. Geithner, without singling out officials, raised concerns about regulators who questioned the wisdom of giving the Federal Reserve more power to oversee the financial system.

Clunker plan gives car sales a lift – WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. auto sales in July climbed to their highest pace in 11 months, as customers rushed to showrooms amid uncertainty about the future of the federal government’s “Cash for Clunkers” incentive program.

Now, car makers, the Obama administration and the Senate face tough decisions about how to respond to the clunker program’s apparent success. The administration on Monday stepped up a campaign to persuade senators to approve $2 bln more in funding before Congress goes on vacation at the end of the week. The House on Friday approved a $2 bln funding extension. Administration officials have warned the program could be forced to end. But some key senators in both parties are balking. White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Monday that President Barack Obama would use a Tuesday lunch meeting with Senate Democrats to push for an extension of the program. The administration gained ground Monday when Senators Susan Collins (R., Maine) and Dianne Feinstein (D., Calif.,) dropped their opposition to additional funding, saying data released by the administration persuaded them that most vehicles scrapped so far have been sport-utility vehicles and trucks, and that 60% of the people using the program had purchased cars.

What they don’t tell you:

These cars need to have a lot of mileage on them to be considered “clunkers”

People driving old “clunkers” typically come from an income bracket that can’t afford a new car

This plan is encouraging these people to spend money they could be using to pay down debt or worse, inducing an increased debt burden
The incentive program requires car dealers destroy each clunker’s engine and drivetrain. This will drive up the cost of used car parts that lower-income car owners who don’t enter the program depend on.

Pulling demand forward, while possibly good for opinion polls, will make the future rather daunting for the auto companies.

History, unfortunately, must repeat itself. This demand pull through is identical to the shenanigans Barney Frank and his cohorts concocted in the real estate market and we all know how that ended. Barney’s bunch forced banks to lend to individuals who could not afford the home they were buying. Predictably, demand dried up and foreclosures exploded when the well ran dry.

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A must read story from the Investors Business Daily. The story illustrates how government meddling clearly led to the ruination of the housing market and in turn the financial crisis. We must understand what happened and raise our collective voice if we are to save the health care system from a similar fate.

Truth In Lending
By INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY Posted Friday, July 10, 2009 4:20 PM PT
Behind The Meltdown: Many Americans are unaware of the causes of the greatest economic calamity of our lifetime. A new congressional report details how government politicized housing, wrecking the economy.
Rep. Darrell Issa of California, ranking Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, has released a report that every American should read.
The analysis details how powerful Democrats in Congress insisted that government-subsidized housing be geared to serve the purposes of social justice at the expense of sound lending.
squeezed out their competition and cornered the secondary mortgage market. They took advantage of a $2.25 billion line of credit from the U.S. Treasury.
• Congress, by statute, allowed them to operate with much lower capital requirements than private-sector competitors.
They “used their congressionally-granted advantages to leverage themselves in excess of 70-to-1.”
• The two GSEs were the only publicly traded corporations exempt from SEC oversight. All their securities carried an implicit AAA rating regardless of the quality of the mortgages.
• The Department of Housing and Urban Development set quotas for GSE investment in affordable housing.
• Encouraged by an inaccurate 1992 Boston Federal Reserve Bank study charging racial discrimination in mortgage lending, the two GSEs were strongly pressured to “lower their underwriting standards, particularly on the size of down payments and the credit quality of borrowers.”
(Barney Frank was perhaps the loudest voice calling for the subversion of underwriting standards. This is one of the reasons why I have repeatedly called for his removal. My issue with Barney is purely based on facts and not partisan prejudice as some may argue.)
• In 1992, Congress directed HUD to establish multiple quotas requiring mortgage quotes for low-income families.
• In 1995, the Clinton administration issued a National Homeownership Strategy, loosening Fannie and Freddie’s lending standards and insisting that lenders “work collaboratively to reduce homebuyer downpayment requirements.”
• The administration complained that in 1989 only 7% of mortgages had less than a 10% downpayment. By 1994, it wanted that raised to 29%.
• Reduced underwriting standards spread into the entire U.S. mortgage market to those at all income levels.
• A complete decoupling of home prices from Americans’ income fed the growth of the housing bubble as borrowers made smaller down payments and took on higher debt.
• Wall Street firms specializing “in packaging and investing in the lowest-quality tranches of mortgage-backed securities,
profited hugely from the increased volume that government affordable lending policies sparked.”
• Wall Street firms, homebuilders and the GSEs used money, power and influence to block attempts at reform. Between 1998 and 2008, Fannie and Freddie spent over $176 million on lobbyists.
• In 2006, Freddie paid the largest fine in Federal Election Commission history for improperly using corporate resources to hold 85 fundraisers for congressmen, raising a total of $1.7 million.

Here are some highlights of Issa’s blow-by-blow account:

• With an implicit subsidy to American homeowners in the form of reduced mortgage rates, Fannie Mae and its sister government sponsored enterprise, Freddie Mac,

(The first three bullets illustrate to perfection what happens when the Gov’t interferes with the private market. Take note because now the Obama administration is feeding us the line that increased Gov’t involvement in the health care system will create healthy competition. THIS IS A LIE! WAKE UP PEOPLE!)

As the Issa report points out, “the real tragedy of the government’s affordable housing policy is the impact on average Americans, particularly those of modest means. “Millions of these borrowers, who were supposed to have been helped by federal affordable housing policy, have now been forced into delinquency and foreclosure, destroying their asset base, their credit, and in some cases their families.”

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RCM Comment: We here at RCM have uncovered the mystery behind the housing troubles in the U.S. We have heard countless explanations and witnessed our colleagues struggle with the conundrum. Well, the super sleuths that we are, we have leaped the why in a single bound and here it is, get ready… “Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat, is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee”:

Changes urged to rules on condo loansWSJ
Democratic lawmakers are calling on Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) to relax recently tightened standards for mortgages on new condominiums, saying they could threaten the viability of some developments and slow the housing-market recovery. In March, Fannie Mae said it would no longer guarantee mortgages on condos in buildings where fewer than 70% of the units have been sold, up from 51%. Fannie Mae also won’t purchase mortgages in buildings where 15% of owners are delinquent on condo association dues or where one owner has more than 10% of units, which the firm sees as signals that a building could run into financial trouble. Freddie Mac will implement similar policies next month. In a letter to the chief executives of Fannie and Freddie, Reps. Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Anthony Weiner (D., N.Y.) warned that the 70% sales threshold “may be too onerous” and could lead condo buyers to shun new developments. (Isn’t that the point? New developments that are shaky need to stop so all the supply from overbuilding can come back into equilibrium with demand.) The legislators asked the companies to “make appropriate adjustments” to their underwriting standards for condos.

RCM Comment: Once again Barney illustrates his complete ignorance, stupidity, philistinism (Click here to continue the cathartic release) with regard to anything resembling sound economics. Has Barney learned nothing from the crisis? Last year I watched him accuse Fannie and Freddie of the very same weak lending practices he is now championing. We ask: Can anyone be this obtuse? What’s the hidden agenda? Will we find out Barney stands to benefit financially if condo communities are artificially inflated?

Let’s not forget that Freddie and Fannie are bankrupt entities. Any reduction in lending standards will likely lead to another trillion of losses. Who will pay for that? The American tax payer. Thanks Barney! Sixty-four thousand dollar question: When will Barney’s constituents wake up and vote him out of office?

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Barney the Dinosaur has a child’s intellect, so he would not understand the damage he is causing. While Barney Frank’s intellect is certainly debatable, he’s an adult, so he should understand the damage, which makes him that much more dangerous.

The answer to the question: Barney Frank!

Barney is my favorite fool on Capitol Hill; the hippopotamus of hypocrisy, the deacon of delusion (I could go on, but the target is so easy it is not really fair) has done it again. He is truly a hippopotamus in a china shop as he makes comments and pushes agendas that create unintended collateral damage. And, like the consummate politician, he never has the courage to take responsibility for his actions. Lest’s not forget his constant use of threats and coercion to force banks to “meet the needs of borrowers in all segments of their communities, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods”. He wielded the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) of 1977 like a cudgel. The CRA was well-intended and effective but like many sound pieces of legislation it was bastardized by fools.

Barney Frank and his ilk are at the very root of this credit crisis. However, instead of taking responsibility for his actions Barney uses the tools of a true grifter and with a little misdirection tries to avoid the blame. For the last couple of days he has gotten up on the bully pulpit and blathered on about AIG trader compensation. Today, he made the comment, “Now is the time to begin acting like owners”. While this may sound good to the untrained ear, don’t be misled. The consequences of the government “acting like owners” would be severe. This action would be seen as a type of (if not all out) nationalization, which would be absolutely disruptive to our banking system and cause further instability in our equity markets.

A respected colleague of ours, Michael Johnson of M.S. Howell explains: “…government attempts to increase the consistency of their approach have increased speculation that all new bank holding companies – especially Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) – could be forced to announce large reductions in their dividends or raise dilutive capital to repay their original TARP loan and reduce government interference.” Naturally, either of these actions would be destructive to share prices. Don’t forget to thank your friendly congressman, Barney, if this should occur.

RCM Comment: Meredith has been on point throughout this crisis, so her thoughts bear close examination.

Meredith Whitney on CNBC says same thing will happen in the financial sector this year as last year, but with different assets being purged. Whitney says banks will purge assets, driving valuations lower, sending the equivalent marks on each others portfolios down. Says so much credit is going out of the system, so even if you’re ok, your credit situation is weakened, leading to a higher probability of default…Thinks April will be a very busy month as the stress test results are released and banks decide what to sell.

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Gary and I are working this week out of our old haunt, New York City. We are having a great time, accomplishing a lot, and enjoying NYC (all together now: LET’S GO RANGERS!!). Plenty has happened in the markets this week and we will get back to blogging the ‘News that Moves’ as soon as possible.

I felt I would make just a few comments to tide you over:

In our last blog (Feb. 6th) we explained that the rally last week appeared to us to be a classic example of the ‘buy the rumor’ type of trade. This week’s trading has completed that phrase as the markets have ‘sold the news’. No surprises here. As the markets move lower during a bear trend you will often see violent moves higher on rumor and then the true trend settles back in as the news is revealed. What must be understood is the following: No one piece of news is capable of changing the trend.

The congressional hearing today illustrated another case of ridiculous political grandstanding. The USA has serious issues that need to be resolved and these jokers are wasting their time grilling the CEOs of the banking industry. I will not waste time on the absurdity of Barney Frank or his cohorts. I will simply say this: If they were wearing togas they would strongly resemble the rabble that surrounded Caesar. Except Caesar, in this example, is the collected citizens of the USA.

One investment theme does surface during this sham of a hearing. Time was wasted complaining about bonuses to management. Cato, Brutus and the rest want to restrict the free market and control payouts of all the banks receiving government funds. While this control has a wonderful populist sound and plays well while pandering, it has one simple effect: The talented people inside these banks – people who are needed to fix this mess – will simply leave. The senators claim to be protecting taxpayers, but this view is completely shortsighted. It is the proverbial cutting off the nose to spite the face. The talent will walk, start their own investment banks when the time is right, and then profit, while the old banks the taxpayer owns will languish and under perform.

So, the investment theme is simply to continue shortselling the banks (including Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan) as the diaspora of talent unfolds. This does not mean these stocks will go straight down. Like all investment themes, a nimble manager will be required to reap the rewards, but reap we will as if it were a full moon.

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