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Los Angeles Times – In a typical recession, stocks start recovering about six months before the economy does. The crisis we’re in right now, however, is anything but typical: Lending is frozen, hedge-fund selling is happening on a massive scale, and economic troubles have spread all over the globe.
As a result, it’s possible the economy will need to show signs of strength before the stock market stabilizes and regains steam. So with readings getting darker by the day, expect more of the same this week: extreme volatility.
Reuters – Up to half of Russian hedge funds could go out of business as the financial crisis sends investors fleeing and the stock market continues to fall, according to industry experts.
Speaking at the Russia Alternative Investment Summit on Wednesday, Simon Fentham-Fletcher, head of fund of hedge funds at Raiffeisen Bank, said in a worst-case scenario, 50 percent of Russian hedge funds could close.
The primary source of failure will be a lack of funding as performance deteriorates and investors redeem their money, he said.
"If they’re not well-capitalised they can’t look after themselves properly. It’s expensive to run a hedge fund out of Russia and you can eat into your reserves very quickly," said Fentham-Fletcher, who is based in Moscow.
Time – Benjamin Graham was well prepared for the Crash of 1929. The now legendary investor had hedged his bets: he would buy preferred stock in a company and sell short common stock in the same company. When stocks crashed in October 1929, common shares fell much faster than preferreds, and Graham made a lot of money off short sales.
But after the crash, most of those preferred shares seemed so cheap that Graham couldn’t bear to part with them, he wrote in his memoirs. They kept falling, and his profit soon turned to a loss. His fund (equivalent to a modern hedge fund) ended the year down 20%. In 1930 it dropped 50.5%; in 1931 16%; in 1932 3%. "The stock market," as Graham resignedly put it in the first edition of his book with David Dodd, Security Analysis (1934), "is a voting machine rather than weighing machine."
It had actually begun voting along with Graham by then — his fund gained 50% in 1933, and he did spectacularly well for himself in the next two decades. "In the short run, the market is a voting machine," he later took to saying, "but in the long run, it is a weighing machine."
USA Today – Given the stock market’s wretched performance this year, your current retirement plan may involve a modest part-time job, such as woodworking or forgery.
Before you take up a life of crime, however, remember that really rotten markets sometimes uncover opportunities. In fact, the worse the market, the more bargains you can find. And right now, you can buy stocks and bonds of the nation’s best-run and most profitable businesses at astoundingly low prices. What’s more, you can collect dividends and interest while you wait for the economy to recover and for other investors to regain their senses.
First, and let’s not whitewash things here, the current market has all the appeal of a weekend in the local viper pit. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 679 points on Thursday alone; it has shed 5,585 points, or 39%, in the past 12 months.
West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) – According to a recent survey conducted by the Association of Investment Companies (AIC), a poll of 1,300 sophisticated private investors showed that 15% believed that hedge funds offer the potential for strong returns in the current environment. However they are also concerned about their perceived lack of transparency (17%) and riskiness (17%).
Investors are also cautious about hedge funds because they believe that they are not regulated (14%), and are concerned about the reputation for high charges (12%). Some investors also find them confusing (11%) and believe they are only accessible to the wealthy (5%).
Although some sophisticated private investors are wary of hedge funds, 6% of those surveyed are already investing in hedge funds, 5% have invested in the past and 3% are planning to invest in the future. Interestingly, nearly half (46%) of investors believe they may possibly invest in hedge funds in the future whilst only 29% of investors surveyed would never invest in hedge funds.
"Many of these investors’ concerns over hedge funds are addressed through the listed hedge fund and fund of hedge funds sectors," Annabel Brodie-Smith, Communications Director of the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) said, "The listed structure of closed ended hedge funds and fund of funds means investors have access to a much higher level of transparency. Shares in listed funds are available on the stock market just like any other share so they are available to those of modest means as well as the super wealthy."
"This is a real growth area of the industry with the hedge fund sector making up 65% of the assets raised this year in the investment company sector. However, it is still a young sector, so long-term performance records are not available for the majority. Investors need to do their homework to make sure they select the right fund for them in this diverse sector and if they are unsure they should take independent financial advice," she concluded.
Ian Plenderleith, Chairman of BH Macro, said, "Hedge funds who can maintain the necessary standards of investment expertise and risk management have demonstrated that they can deliver superior returns on a consistent basis. Listed hedge fund vehicles give a wider range of investors access to alternative investment strategies through an avenue they are familiar with. They get the benefit of the regulatory safeguards and disclosure obligations, and the secondary market liquidity that go with stock exchange listing."
Robin Bowie, Chairman of Dexion Capital, said: "When dislocation in financial markets reaches the present level, it provides an ideal environment for hedge funds, which are well-placed to make opportunistic investments where they recognise value and can hedge out the market risk. Some of those positions will be illiquid, which will be unsuitable for most managers of open-ended funds. Closed-ended funds employ ‘permanent capital’, raised on the stock exchange, which allow managers to blend liquid and illiquid assets and take advantage of the current mismatch in the markets. In essence, closed-ended funds bring liquidity to illiquid situations."
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Irish Times – Seven international hedge funds have bet hundreds of millions of euro that Irish bank stocks will continue to fall.
Although it is normal stock market practice, since last Friday short-selling of the four Irish publicly quoted banks has been banned by the Irish Financial Services Regulatory Authority. While the regulator banned investors from taking new short positions, existing positions can be maintained, reduced or closed.
By maintaining their positions, the hedge funds are betting that Irish bank stocks, already at record lows, are set to fall further. As it is not clear when the initial share trades took place, brokers said the actual monetary value of the bets is unclear.
However, using yesterday’s closing prices, the seven funds hold positions worth €279 million in the four quoted Irish banks.
Five US and two London-based funds have disclosed their short positions.
Bloomberg – Lone Pine Capital LLC, run by Stephen Mandel, and Traxis Partners LLC are among 56 overseas funds that registered to buy shares in India in July, the most in six months, betting on a recovery in stocks.
Helios Capital Management Pte and Stonewater Capital LLC also won approval from the nation’s regulator, nine months after authorities forced hedge funds to register. The Securities & Exchange Board of India will review those rules in Mumbai today.
India’s stock market recovered its $1 trillion in market value last month, helped by the biggest drop in commodity prices in 28 years. The new funds may help reverse record sales of stocks by overseas investors that led to the biggest first-half slump in the Sensitive Index since its 1979 creation.
Reuters UK- Polling and research group YouGov said on Monday it is aiming to raise up to $50 million (25 million pounds) for the launch of a hedge fund that will use polling data to highlight lucrative investment strategies.
The YouGov Alpha fund, which will be managed by investment boutique Four Capital, aims to gain an investment edge through YouGov’s research, which it believes can highlight areas where the stock market is being too optimistic or pessimistic, for example in retail sales.
"We’re looking to use it where the signals we get from the YouGov research are almost diametrically opposed to signals in the marketplace," said Four Capital fund manager Chris Rodgers, previously head of HSBC Halbis Partners’ UK Equity team and a senior fund manager at Schroders
LONDON (Reuters) – Polling and research group YouGov said on Monday it is aiming to raise up to $50 million (25 million pounds) for the launch of a hedge fund that will use polling data to highlight lucrative investment strategies.
The YouGov Alpha fund, which will be managed by investment boutique Four Capital, aims to gain an investment edge through YouGov’s research, which it believes can highlight areas where the stock market is being too optimistic or pessimistic, for example in retail sales.
"We’re looking to use it where the signals we get from the YouGov research are almost diametrically opposed to signals in the marketplace," said Four Capital fund manager Chris Rodgers, previously head of HSBC Halbis Partners’ UK Equity team and a senior fund manager at Schroders.
