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Palladium Shortages Spur Bullish Hedge-Fund Wagers: Commodities

Bloomberg – At a time when gold and silver are tumbling the most in three decades, hedge funds are holding a near-record bullish bet on palladium as forecasters from Morgan Stanley to Credit Suisse Group AG predict years of shortages.

Demand will exceed output by 1.33 million ounces in 2013, more than North America produces in a year, Morgan Stanley says. Credit Suisse anticipates deficits through at least 2016, and researcher CPM Group says mines won’t catch up for a decade. Prices will average $800 an ounce in the first quarter, 10 percent more than now, and $850 in 2015, the median of as many as 12 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

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