RCM Comment: Goldman Sachs continued… Cracks in the foundation of the “better than expected” Q1 numbers from GS. The first story below highlights the rather dubious decision by GS to change its fiscal year, which helped reduce the impact of an awful December. The second story is perhaps even more troublesome as it attacks the very root of Goldman’s “successful” […]
RCM Comment: I continue to believe we will see a significant division within the banking sector during earning season. As I have stated, I expect the big banks (GS, WFC, JPM) – who are in cahoots with the government – to post “much better than expected EPS“, while the smaller regional banks will not. The first test of this theory […]
The cause and durability of this equity market rally continues to be a hotly contested debate. I would like to throw my hat in the proverbial ring and offer some thoughts on durability. Every market rally – whether it be a bull market or bear market bounce – has a group that leads the move. By studying this group we […]
RCM Comment: Update on the FASB decision: Where impaired assets losses are concerned, FASB has caved in and is not requiring immediate write offs for the full amount. Instead, banks must write off the part that is impaired because it was a bad asset, but the rest that is impaired because of market conditions (as determined by the bank) is […]
Nassim Taleb: A brilliant analogy explaining the absurd and fraudulent idea of changing the mark to mark (MtoM) rules for banks. As the theory goes, under the MtoM rules of today banks are forced to use current prices to value assets they intend to hold long term. The proponents of a rule change blubber that this is unfair because the […]
RCM Comment – Gary Rosenthal: Examine the Total Credit Market Debt vs. GDP chart below and you will quickly realize why all of the government’s bailout programs are paper tigers and are destined to miss their intended mark by a wide margin. The credit collapse of 1929-30 did not hit bottom until the early 1950s. The strong U.S. economic expansion […]
RCM Comments: With all the noise about bailouts and payouts and market rallies, I’m afraid you may be distracted from perhaps the most important story brewing. We have highlighted in these pages more than once over the last few months the importance of the movement coming from China to impose its will on the world financial community. Please read these […]
RCM Comment: So, the debate continues to rage: Is this a dead cat bounce or the beginning of the next bull market? Next week’s action will be very telling due to a confluence of events sure to impact traders. The G20 meeting this weekend (bound to focus on currency manipulation), supposed start of the TALF program, and options expiration on […]
