Author Archives: Bret Rosenthal

About Bret Rosenthal

Interpreting the news that moves markets. Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds

Swedish Riksbank Takes Unprecedented Step, FOMC Minutes, Gold Bullish

This story is a must read and read carefully. The unprecedented actions of the Swedish Riksbank may be the precursor to a whole new phase of the quantitative easing shell game. And make no mistake about it, a true shell game is going on with the worlds fiat money supply. The central bankers are moving ever greater amounts of consistently […]

US$/S&P 500 Correlation, Dollar Cheaper to Borrow Than the Yen, AIG Momentum Discussed

As the graph above illustrates, a serious correlation between the US$ and the US equity markets has developed over the last 9+ years. This correlation is strong and for policy makers in Washington, rather disturbing. The relationship is as follows: If the US$ loses value the equity markets have rallied and if the US$ strengthens equity markets have sold off. […]

Courtesy of Obama ‘Change’ is a Baffling Word, Bernanke Reappointment, “Cure Rate” on Mortgages Plunging, Central Bankers Call for Continued Stimulus

The American people are receiving a true education from our president regarding the various uses of the baffling word that is ‘Change‘. First, during Obama’s campaign for presidency, we were led to believe that change meant ‘out with the old, in with the new’. Old representing all that was bad and new all that was good. Then, after obtaining the […]

Initial Claims Disappoint Again, Failded Banks Weighing On FDIC, Calpers Takes Another Hit, Tishman Faces Office Downturn

The stories below offer further concrete evidence that major issues persist in the US economy. When making investment decisions, we prefer to place more weight behind this type of data than “leading” economic indicators the government likes to laud and CNBC types love to regurgitate. The rally in the US$ last week stalled this week right at the resistance of […]

Consumer Sentiment Dismal, US$ and US Treasuries Reaction A Head Fake

Today’s consumer sentiment numbers offer immediate confirmation that the issues I raised in yesterday’s post are clear and present dangers to the continued recovery of the debt and equity markets. As of this post, equity markets are down about 1.5% across the board, which is not surprising. However, the rally in the US$ and the US treasury market are in […]

Q2 EPS, LIBOR-OIS Spreads Narrow, July Retail Sales, Initail Jobless Claims

Second quarter earnings can be best characterized as light on revenue but strong on cost cutting, leading to better than expected EPS. The more positive bottom line results have helped fuel the equity market rally over the last couple of months. Meanwhile, Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — The Libor–OIS spread narrowed to a level former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said […]

HFT “flash” Trade Fallout, Goldman Sachs Connection, Nasdaq Admission, Earnings of Interest: LINC, LOPE

We have been following this “flash” trading story closely and need to remain vigilant. The fallout from a clampdown on High Frequency Trade (HFT) could be far reaching and is difficult to predict. However, I’ll take a stab at a couple of results that seem like obvious issues: 1) If HFTs are banned we should witness a disturbing collapse in […]

Geithner’s Rant, Obama Administration’s Desperation?, Ramifications of the Clunker Plan

This story is quite disturbing. The Obama administration is sliding down a slippery, or should I say, slimy slope. In Q4 of last year fear mongering was the tactic of choice to push policy (e.g. auguring global financial ruin if senators didn’t quickly pass questionable legislation.) In Q1 & Q2 of this year financial market manipulation was the potion incorporated […]

Credit Thaw, LIBOR Trend, Commercial Paper,M Hanson Real Estate, CA Home Sales Report, Earning of Interest ABX, NETL

We have been following the LIBOR story since the beginning of the credit crisis. Conventional wisdom suggests that if the LIBOR rate is going up then there are problems with the credit markets and if rates are going down then credit is flowing freely. This story highlights a possible wrinkle in this theory. Rates are clearly going down but the […]

Obama on the Recession, Fed’s Beige Book, Treasury Auction Results

President Obama says US may be seeing beginning of end of recession -DJ Sure, and the emperor was wearing clothes… ECONX Summary of Fed’s Beige Book Reports suggest that economic activity continued to be weak going into the summer, but most Districts indicated that the pace of decline has moderated since the last report or that activity has begun to […]