If I tell you that I believe something is likely to happen, what probability would you give my usage of “likely”? How do you know it is the same as my estimate of “likely”? We all use probability expressions in our conversations to express differentiated levels of uncertainty. The problem is that my expression may not match your interpretation. The […]

The Hedge Fund Association, HFA, today announced a European expansion with the opening of a new Chapter in London with future Chapters planned for other major European hedge fund cities. A launch event focused on distressed investing will be held October 5th, 2010 at 6pm GMT at the offices of Brown Rudnick at 8 Clifford Street London, W1S 2LQ, United […]

I was speaking with the risk manager at a new shop when he stopped me mid-sentence and asked, “why wouldn’t I just build this myself in Excel?” Now I’m used to the question, as most of us in this profession are quantitatively savvy and have at least one person in the firm that is a power Excel user, but this […]

“I must concede that my occupation, active money management, may be one of the best examples of the illusion of control in the professional world.” – Michael Mauboussin. If ten randomly selected people play Federer in tennis, they will, with a very high probability all lose. You would get the same outcome if ten people play Kasparov in Chess. If […]