Author Archives: Bret Rosenthal

About Bret Rosenthal

Interpreting the news that moves markets. Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds

Stock Market Investing, Investment Strategy, Precious Metals Thesis, IMF Sells Gold to India, Conversation with Gary Rosenthal

Stock Market Investing: The equity averages continue to languish, however, as anticipated, the relative strength of precious metals investments soars. The Dow, S&P500 and the NASD all sit at or near their respective lows of the last two weeks while Gold hits a new high for the year at $1,085.65 and Silver crosses $17. Investment Strategy: We have used the […]

Investment Strategy, Equity Market Trouble, “Positive” GDP, Norway Increases Rates

Stock Market Investing: The equity averages are down another 2.5+% today capping off an awful week during which time the uptrends from March and the 50day moving averages have been violated. The price action should not come as a shock but instead as a reminder of the tightrope the Fed must walk in order to keep this economic house of […]

Investment Strategy: Batten Down The Hatches, Quantitative Easing to Slow, Consumer Confidence Suffers, CNBC Viewership Plunge

Stock Market Investing: The action of the equity markets over the last couple of weeks has been, to say the least, suspect. Today, the averages are testing support at the 50-day moving average and the uptrend line that goes back to March, the beginning of this Fed induced, government sponsored rally. For your edification I will highlight just a few […]

Investment Strategy Turns More Cautious, Existing Home Sales, Record Auctions This Week, Galleon Grief

Stock Market Investing: The Equity markets were down across the board Friday as the week ended. Last week was a week of churning and distribution, two actions I hate to see during a market advance as they often mark the end of a rally. To make matters worse the churning has occurred at key areas of resistance on all three […]

US$ Carry Trade Intensifies, Pound Sterling Advances on BoE Comments, Fed’s Yellen’s Comments Add to US$ Decline, Mortgage Apps.Decline

  Just as I suspected!!     Well, apparently my conclusions are sound. Today the U.S.$ price is down more than 3/4% making a new low and news out of the UK is leading the charge. The Pound Sterling has gained 5% this week alone vs. the U.S.$. Today’s comments out of the BoE speak directly to the points I highlighted yesterday…. […]

Sept. Housing Data, PPI, Russia and China Talk of Replacing the US$ on energy Trade, UK Real Estate Heats Up

More economic numbers out this morning that suggest a continuation of the status quo. The Fed can point to the PPI numbers and pretend there is no inflation… September Core PPI Y/Y +1.8% vs +2.0% consensus, prior +2.3% September PPI Y/Y -4.8% vs -4.3% consensus …So rates can remain low to help the listless housing market… September Housing Starts 590K […]

RCM Investment Strategy, Earning GS/JPM/INTC/GOOG, Industrial Production Surges, Michigan Sentiment Misses, 60% Of Borrowers Underwater, Fed’s Fisher

Tea Leaves; in the last couple of days there have been a lot of them, so let’s start reading:The tangible parts of GS’s earnings were suspect (Investment Banking -38%, Asset Management -6%, Trading and Principal Investments -7%) while the FICC unit (Fixed Income, Currency, Commodities) showed all the gain. “Net revenues in FICC were $5.99 billion, significantly higher than the […]

Inflation, Hyperinflation, Stagflation and the Investment Strategy to Benefit, Richard Russell, Fed’s Lacker, Credit Tightens, Banks Sift Reserves

Welcome back, today we will continue our discussion about the inflation/hyperinflation/ stagflation trade. In my last post I illustrated how the important news stories of last week clearly unveiled the footprint of the inflation trade. You may recall that I ended with the familiar refrain: “Inflation (particularly hyperinflation) is a currency event, not an economic event.” Therefore, the investment strategy […]

The Inflation Trade, Alcoa EPS, Obama’s New Stimulus Plan, Australia’s Interest Rate Increase, Commercial Real Estate Woes

Today we are going to follow the footprints of the hyper-inflation/stagflation trade that I have been writing so much about. By simply understanding the impact of the important news stories and avoiding the noise of the traditional media outlets, tracking our quarry will be relatively easy. AA Alcoa beats by $0.13, beats on revs (14.20 +0.31) Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings […]

Gold Hits New High, U.S.$ Approaches New Low, Nouriel Roubini Rants, Geithner and Lamont Looking Similiar, Saudi Central Bank Denies Replacement $

Gold breaks out to a new high up 2.4%, Silver up 4.36%, the equity markets are up over 1.5%, and the U.S.$ is down another .66%. The inflation trade is alive and well. I would like to begin with a quick comment on Nouriel. I have reprinted the essence of his most recent comments for your perusal: Nouriel Roubini appears […]