(Opalesque) DBRS considers that diverging views on Brexit among citizens in the UK could inadvertently lead to the breakup of the Union. DBRS reviews the implications of no-deal scenarios and their potential impact on the unity of the United Kingdom.
At one extreme is a “severe” hard Brexit whereby the UK crashes out of the EU permanently with no airbags or restraints on its impact. DBRS concludes that such a Brexit could quickly change the support for Scottish independence and even over time the support for the unification of Ireland, increasing the breakup risk of the UK. These considerations are exacerbated by a weakening economic environment that intensifies divisions within the UK.
