A Five Star Win in Italy Could Mean Pain for Bondholders

(Bloomberg) Italian bond spreads could blow out to levels not seen in five years should a euroskeptic alliance come to power. Though analysts are only assigning a 10 percent chance to the possibility of such a coalition dominated by the Five Star Movement taking office, the prospect may pose a sleepless night on Sunday for traders who are long the nation’s debt. In this scenario, median estimates of analysts in a Bloomberg survey see the 10-year yield premium over German bunds doubling to 260 basis points, a level not seen since 2013, and the euro sliding below $1.21.

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