Watching hedge fund bets for market trends

International Herald Tribune- If hedge funds are, as is often claimed, the investment vanguard, their latest moves appear to be telling financial markets it is time to take a break from the trading patterns that have dominated since mid-2007.

Investment banks have been poring over the latest data on hedge fund positioning from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission and concluded that a number of speculative bets have been changed.

Société Générale, for example, says long positions on 10-year government bonds have been closed. That is to say, hedge funds are not expecting demand for such bonds to increase and drive yields lower.

Similarly, hedge funds have sharply cut back their long euro-dollar holdings, meaning they now expect the dollar to strengthen or at least stabilize against the single currency.

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