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This is London – It also led many in the City to believe the Bank favours a weak currency, prompting a series of downbeat forecasts today. “I’m super bearish on the pound,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based head of foreign exchange at BNP Paribas.
“The Bank of England has made it clear it can’t afford a stronger currency.” He forecast the pound would fall to $1.50 in 12 months.
John Taylor, chief executive of New York hedge fund FX Concepts, said sterling will “get crushed” and sink as low as $1.45 in the coming months.
“The fundamentals in the UK are certainly not pretty,” he said. “It’s a race for the least ugly of the candidates, and I would argue that the US is going to be the least ugly for a while.” Others were more upbeat and said the measures taken by the Bank and the Government to ease the slowdown will boost sterling. HSBC predicted the pound would rise to $1.75 by the end of next year — midway between the high of $2.12 in November 2007 and the low of $1.38 in March this year.
Bloomberg – 21st Century Asset Management Co., run by former Nomura Asset Management Co. executive Takanori Shimizu, said it may seek growth through takeovers after the worst year on record for hedge funds.
Shimizu, 63, said he will also cut costs as the Tokyo-based firm strives to boost assets under management to 40 billion yen ($440 million) by the end of March 2010, from 14 billion yen as at Dec. 31, 2008.
“We are carefully considering possible cost cuts just like any other firm,” Shimizu said in an interview yesterday. “Acquiring another asset management firm to boost our assets may be a good strategy and we’re always on the lookout.”
The global credit crisis forced as many as 920 hedge funds out of business last year while the tally of job losses at financial firms worldwide reached 269,000. Last week, Rheos Capital Works Inc., a Tokyo-based hedge fund, said it would sell a majority stake to IS Holdings Inc. to weather the slowdown.
Hedge Fund Net – Alternative investment strategies around the world are trudging through a slowdown, but that is not scaring away the world’s organization, the United Nations, from investing in these areas. The United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund (UNJSPF) is set to move forward with plans to put its money into hedge funds and private equity funds.
The UNJSPF was established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1949 to provide retirement, death, disability and related benefits for staff of the U.N. and the other organizations admitted to membership in the fund, according to the UNJSPF Web site. As of Dec. 31, 2004 the fund served 20 member organizations with more than 88,350 active participants and nearly 53,000 beneficiaries.
The Australian – US stocks fell as another drop in oil prices and a warning from Toyota Motor underscored the unsparing nature of the slowdown.
Toyota forecast an operating loss for the current year, the first in the car maker’s history. The Japanese giant was thought to have developed a watertight strategy that would yield profits through thick and thin, making it the subject of managerial guides like the 2004 book The Toyota Way.
But the spreading recession caught up on Toyota, too, and it blamed a slump in the global automobile market and a sharp appreciation in the Japanese yen against major currencies for a likely loss. American depositary shares of Toyota fell $US3.50, or 5.45 per cent, to $US60.88.
General Motors was by far the weakest stock on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, falling US97 cents, or 22 per cent, to 3.52. Analysts warned that the Government rescue measure may not be enough to keep the car and truck maker out of bankruptcy court.
USA Today – It is last call for investors to ask for their money back from poorly performing hedge funds. Whether that is a bullish or bearish sign for battered stocks is anyone’s guess.
Wall Street hopes the passing of the Nov. 15 deadline — the last day for many investors to make a request to redeem hedge fund shares payable at year’s end — could mark the beginning of the end of "forced selling" by funds to raise cash. If the selling recedes, it could help lift some of the downside pressure on stocks. Forced selling has been blamed for sharp stock price swings and plunging asset values in the financial crisis.
Investors have redeemed an estimated $85 billion from hedge funds through the end of the third quarter, says Charles Gradante, co-founder of hedge fund adviser Hennessee Group.
MarketWatch – For the first time in 17 months, hedge funds in July made more bets on oil prices falling than rising, according to the latest government data.
Short positions from noncommercial investors, hedge funds and other large investors that don’t actually take delivery of oil, surpassed long positions in July for the first month since February 2007, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. Short positions are bets on falling prices while long positions bet on rising prices.
"We are seeing a significant retrenchment of bullish appetite among funds," said Edward Meir, an analyst at futures brokerage MF Global. "The price bias still favors the downside."
