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New York (HedgeCo.net) – In a Sunday Times article this weekend, Bryan Collings, who manages the Investment Fund for Ingnis International Hexam Global Emerging Markets, predicted an increase in the price of precious metals of 25% over the next 18 months. He forecasts that the price of gold will rise 20% to $1,200 an ounce by 2010. Remarkably, other commentators are predicting an even more significant rise to $1,500 an ounce within the next two years.
Gold was pushed to its highest level in the last six months because investors are keen to buy gold as a hedge against inflation. Gold has always been seen as a good investment in times of economic uncertainty. With continued concerns about inflation, the gold markets show no signs of cooling unlike the currency markets which continue to fluctuate.
Jason Cozens, Managing Director of Au, the online gold exchange said, “This is consistent with our predictions for the price of gold as investors are undoubtedly keen to buy gold at the moment. We are seeing an increase in enquiries from all kinds of investors. Media reports, like the Sunday Times article, are encouraging investors and we believe that it is prudent for individuals to invest up to 40% of their total portfolio in gold”.
Similarly, the price of other precious metals has soared since the beginning of the year. Silver has also strengthened with figures from the S&P GSCI Silver index showing a gain of 46.4% since the start of 2009. Copper has risen 102% since the beginning of the year and experts are predicting that with a shortage in supply and growing demand the price will continue to go up. Uranium prices are also expected to rise with an increase in demand for the metal, which is used in the production of nuclear energy.
Seeking Alpha – Usually when Wall Street talks about hard assets, they’re talking about precious metals or commodities, things you can touch or feel or consume.
But hard assets can mean other things – things that bring pleasure like art, vintage cars or rare stamps. Let’s call them ‘real’ assets’ or ‘stable assets.’
So what’s happening to real assets in this volatile environment? Demand is booming. But compelling values still exist.
“Rare diamond and gemstone prices have been steadily rising and auction houses have been selling investment grade gemstones at record sales” reports Reuters.
Gold Seek – This January was one of the worst on record for financial markets. US Treasuries crashed after enjoying a recession-beating run in 2008. Gold and silver were the only major asset class to end the month higher.
Hedge funds that previously ignored precious metals have become converts, with hedge fund star Greenlight Capital buying the yellow metal for the first time.
Another money manager Osmium Capital Management is offering a hedge fund priced in ounces of gold to protect it from exchange rate fluctuations. Subscriptions are in dollars, euros or pounds and then converted into gold.
West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) – Derivatives exchange group CME has hired Mark H. Thompson Jr. as Director of hedge funds. Thompson, 37, will be responsible for serving as the company’s primary liaison to the East Coast hedge fund community and developing hedge fund business within the region across all CME Group product lines. He will be based out of New York and will report to Tina Lemieux, Managing Director of hedge funds and broker services.
Thompson joins CME Group from UBS Securities LLC where he most recently served as a member of the macro/cross asset sales team. In this role, he was responsible for serving as the single point of contact for macro, long/short, transition and asset managers for all derivatives and cash products and performing cross-asset idea generation and research for clients. He also served as a member of the bank’s global futures and options sales team. His background also includes operations and analyst roles with Moore Capital Management and Banque Paribas.
CME Group is the world’s largest and most diverse derivatives exchange. Building on the heritage of CME, CBOT and NYMEX, CME Group serves the risk management needs of customers around the globe. As an international marketplace, CME Group brings buyers and sellers together on the CME Globex electronic trading platform and on trading floors in Chicago and New York.
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Times Online – Several hedge funds face big financial losses after wrongly predicting that oil and gas prices would rise as a result of Hurricane Gustav slamming into the Gulf coast of the US earlier this week.
As Gustav swept towards New Orleans on Monday, catastrophe experts were predicting insured losses of up to $7 billion (£3.9 billion) as offshore oil rigs faced destruction and the storm threatened energy supplies.
Commodities hedge funds saw the glum prediction as an opportunity, betting heavily, using the futures market, that prices would surge in the wake of the hurricane chaos.
In New York, crude oil leapt to $116 a barrel in the hours before Gustav hit the US coastline. On Nymex, natural gas futures rose 45.3 cents to $8.278 per 1,000 cubic feet. However, the experts, and the hedge funds, were caught out. By the time the storm was sending water lapping over New Orleans’s flood barriers, Gustav had been downgraded by the National Hurricane Centre to a Category 1 event. Oil eased to $105.46, with dealers soon speculating that it would fall to $100.
Los Angeles Times – Regulators had long classified a private Swiss energy conglomerate called Vitol as a trader that primarily helped industrial firms that needed oil to run their businesses.
But when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission examined Vitol’s books last month, it found that the firm was in fact more of a speculator, holding oil contracts as a profit-making investment rather than a means of lining up the actual delivery of fuel. Even more surprising was the massive size of Vitol’s portfolio — at one point in July, the firm held 11% of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange.
The discovery revealed how an individual financial player had gained enormous sway over the oil market without the knowledge of regulators. Other CFTC data showed that a significant amount of trading activity was concentrated in the hands of just a few speculators.
The CFTC, which learned about the nature of Vitol’s activities only after making an unusual request for data from the firm, now reports that financial firms speculating for their clients or for themselves account for about 81% of the oil contracts on the Nymex.
