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Seeking Alpha – Risk management Rule No.1: if it can happen then it will happen. Hope for the best but plan for the worst. Recent events have provided good returns for some hedge funds, hard times for other hedge funds but harsher times for long only. Skilled absolute return managers don’t make money every month but they do have milder and shorter duration drawdowns than index funds.
I wrote back in January that the Dow and Nikkei would likely fall below 10,000 this year as a result of the credit crisis and owning stock index option puts has indeed been the top performing strategy this year. But those were just lucky guesses. I can’t time markets so personally I’ll be focusing on funds that can preserve capital, control drawdowns and generate alpha no matter what happens.
Flight to quality? Some real hedge funds are positive for the year even when the aggregate returns for the industry are negative. Performance dispersion is enormous in such a diverse universe. Several strategies have not been affected by prime brokers imploding, changes in short selling rules or the leverage lockdown. The best managed futures CTAs, global macro and options traders have been generating absolute returns throughout the equity and credit mayhem. Strategy diversification is so important since forecasting is difficult. Transitions from one market regime to another often requires a financial revolution. Read Complete Article
Washington Post – It’s easy to explain the continuing financial chaos — and the failure of governments to control it — as the triumph of psychology. Fear reigns, and panic follows. Everyone dumps stocks because everyone believes that everyone else will sell. Only rapidly falling prices attract sufficient buyers. All this is true. But it ignores the real engine of mayhem: "deleveraging." That’s economic shorthand for purging the financial system of too much debt.
Just how this deleveraging proceeds will largely determine the fate, for good or ill, of the crisis. The turmoil has already moved beyond "subprime mortgages," which (it now seems) merely exposed widespread financial failings. These were global, not just American, and their pervasiveness explains why leaders of the major economies have struggled, so far unsuccessfully, to fashion a common response.
Alone, American subprime mortgages should not have triggered a global crisis. Losses are smaller than they seem. Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com estimates that all U.S. mortgage losses will ultimately reach $650 billion. But that hefty amount pales against the value of all financial assets — stocks, bonds, bank loans. For the United States, these totaled almost $60 trillion at the end of 2007; for the world, the comparable figure exceeded $250 trillion.
Times Online – Surging fears of Armageddon in the global financial system ravaged a wide selection of commodities across Asia as groups ranging from hedge funds to day traders spent the day in a headlong flight from risk.
The shock waves from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers reverberated through markets for vegetable oil, soy beans, rubber and industrial metals as confidence in the financial system faltered, global growth prospects dimmed and cash became king.
Broad baskets of commodities — once seen by speculators as a sure-fire bet because of China and India’s apparently unstoppable growth — were sold, with food and metals tracking the sharp declines in crude oil.
Dealing floors in Asia descended into mayhem as analysts forecast a period where commodity markets were effectively “frozen” by a sudden drought of fresh capital.
