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The Independent - Judy Woodruff: You write in your new book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, that “we are in the midst of a financial crisis the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Great Depression.” Was this crisis avoidable?
George Soros: I think it was, but it would have required recognition that the system, as it currently operates, is built on false premises. Unfortunately, we have an idea of market fundamentalism, which is now the dominant ideology, holding that markets are self-correcting; and this is false because it’s generally the intervention of the authorities that saves the markets when they get into trouble.
Since 1980, we have had about five or six crises: the international banking crisis in 1982, the bankruptcy of Continental Illinois in 1984, and the failure of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, to name only three. Each time, it’s the authorities that bail out the market, or organize companies to do so. So the regulators have precedents they should be aware of. But somehow this idea that markets tend to equilibrium and that deviations are random has gained acceptance and all of these fancy instruments for investment have been built on them. There are now, for example, complex forms of investment such as credit-default swaps that make it possible for investors to bet on the possibility that companies will default on repaying loans. Such bets on credit defaults now make up a $45 trillion market that is entirely unregulated. It amounts to more than five times the total of the US government bond market. The large potential risks of such investments are not being acknowledged.
New York (HedgeCo.Net) - The largest hedge fund run by Citadel Investment Group has fallen 30 percent this year stemming from losses tied to convertible bonds. The $10 billion Kensington Global Strategies Fund has been hit hard by the credit crunch, prompting CEO Kennith Griffin to warn investors that returns may be extremely volatile in the next few weeks.
Yesterday, Mr. Griffin sent a letter to investors stating that September was the “single worst month, by far, in the history of Citadel. Our performance reflected extraordinary market conditions that I did not fully anticipate, combined with regulatory changes driven more by populism than policy.”
Rumors of the lagging performance were so strong that Mr. Griffin was forced to set the record straight. He also cited the temporary ban of short selling as one of the reasons for the losses, saying it “created material dislocations across many of our portfolios and disrupted our ability to assume and manage risk.”
Yesterday, Dealbreaker.com had published some of the swirling rumors highlighting Citadel’s problems, fueling fear and speculation in the market. The website eventually took the post down after Citadel expressed their disdain. Dealbreaker wrote: “We removed the citadel post after it was brought to our attention that it was a baseless rumor, and was irresponsible to repeat.”
Dealbreaker had pointed out that the fund uses 4 to 1 leverage, down from 7 to 1 earlier this year. Although they noted that this was high, it is not uncommon for hedge funds to use this much leverage, though some choose to use none. To put it into perspective, Long Term Capital Management and its infamous collapse used 25 to 1 leverage, or for every $1 they had, they borrowed $25.
Citadel was founded in 1990 and manages over $20 billion in assets throughout locations in the United States, Asia, England and Bermuda.
Julie Scuderi Senior Editor for HedgeCo.Net Email: julie@hedgeco.net
Reuters - Union Bancaire Privee has cut its exposure to hedge funds and industry performance has disappointed, while other assets look more attractively-priced, a top executive said.
Christophe Bernard, the Swiss-based firm’s head of asset management, also told the Reuters Wealth Management Summit that the industry, estimated at $2.6 trillion, could shrink by one-third over the coming quarters as investors withdraw assets.
"The extent of what’s happening this year is unseen in the industry," he said, adding the industry’s problems are more drawn out than during 1998’s demise of Long Term Capital Management and Russian crisis or losses it sustained in 2001 and 2002.
"Hedge funds are meant to produce absolute returns. If we say nothing happens (by the end of the year) it will be down 10-11 percent. The basic function of hedge funds will have failed."
Independent - Hedge funds could have an unprecedented level of cash pulled out by investors this quarter, according to insiders, just as they faced millions of pounds of losses from last week’s shock regulation of short selling. It has been a tough year for the industry with high-profile funds blowing up, clients increasing redemptions, as well as public fury over short selling and increased threats of regulation.
One hedge fund expert pointed to The Hedge Fund Implode-O-Meter (HFI) as how he judges the state of the industry. The HFI was set up online in the wake of the credit crunch "to track as hedge funds learn the double-edged-sword nature of the often extreme leverage they use".
The group’s "imploded funds" list has hit 51 companies since the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States kicked off a widespread downturn. That compares with its historical list, stretching back more than a decade to the end of 2006, of just 14, including the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management and Amaranth.
One hedge fund expert pointed to The Hedge Fund Implode-O-Meter (HFI) as how he judges the state of the industry. The HFI was set up online in the wake of the credit crunch "to track as hedge funds learn the double-edged-sword nature of the often extreme leverage they use".
The group’s "imploded funds" list has hit 51 companies since the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States kicked off a widespread downturn. That compares with its historical list, stretching back more than a decade to the end of 2006, of just 14, including the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management and Amaranth.
New York (HedgeCo.Net) - David Ko, a former quantum physicist and Long-Term Capital Management employee, has set up his own hedge fund according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.
Kurtosis Capital Partners will employ a global macro strategy and hopes to attract between $100 million and $250 million initially. Ko has partnered with Stephen Cain, once the global head of currency trading at Deutsche Asset Management.
"Our strategy is to buy options when we think a market is going to become volatile. The closer to the dislocation, the better. Then, at the moment of highest volatility, sell," he said.
Global macro funds generally look for tiny discrepancies in the market using complex equations and mathematical solutions. They then capitalize on those discrepancies by betting on which way they will eventually regulate.
Ko stresses that the fund won’t be using leverage, unlike Long-Term Capital Management, which used heavy amounts of leverage that only magnified the huge losses it suffered. LTCM infamously ended up losing close to $5 billion of investor’s money.
Prior to his hedge fund career, Ko helped to author 10 academic papers on quantum physics while studying at Oxford University.
Julie Scuderi Senior Editor for HedgeCo.Net Email: julie@hedgeco.net
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Baltimore Sun- The price of Cadbury PLC’s Caramello candy bar is up 10 percent over the past 12 months, raising a sticky question: Are hedge funds to blame?
Soaring cocoa prices are driving up the cost of chocolate around the world. The chocolate industry points its finger at speculative buying by professional investors, especially hedge funds.
Hedge funds have been accused of many things over the years, including almost bankrupting countries (the 1997 Asian currency crisis), triggering a run on the pound ( George Soros in 1992), threatening the integrity of the U.S. financial system (Long-Term Capital Management in 1998) and fraud (Bayou Management LLC in 2005). This is their first fight with chocolatiers.