West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) - The Russian market continued to sell off in October as the global financial crisis continued to wreak havoc everywhere, according to the Pharos Russia Fund, October was the fifth consecutive month of losses for the RTS Index, and its 36% loss was the third worst month in the history of the Russian market after August 1998 (-56%) and May 1998 (-39%).

During the month of October, the Pharos Russia Fund was down 12.9%, the Pharos Gas Investment Fund was down 12.8% and the Pharos Small Cap Fund was down 27.4%. Meanwhile the MSCI Russia Index was down 35.3% over the same period. The Russian government has been extremely pro-active during the crisis with its financing and stimulus packages. Thus far, more than $200 billion has been made available to the banking sector.

The Ruble dropped against the dollar causing the sector to suffer as it was one of the most popular investment themes of the year, with both Long Only funds and Hedge Funds heavily invested into the sector. As Hedge Fund (Emerging Market, Commodities and Global Macro) deleveraging accelerated rapidly during the month, these stocks were aggressively liquidated, causing very sharp price falls.

The last week of October also saw aggressive action from many of the main government actors on the global stage – the US Fed, ECB, IMF, Central Bank of China, Central Bank of Japan and many others all took steps to inject liquidity into their respective financial systems.

In the face of all of this aggressive government action, economic statistics and corporate results continue to paint a very gloomy picture. Again, the bottom line is that while governments and central banks are stepping in with a huge amount of stimulus, the private sector is slowing rapidly and that slowdown may overrun the extensive government efforts to keep the world economy from contracting.

It will take some time before the outcome of this battle to forestall deflation is known, so the next months look certain to continue to be extremely volatile. During this time of heightened volatility, Pharos looks to a few leading indicators to inform their next moves. The oil market needs to stabilize in order to remove pressure on the ruble. Should the oil price remain around $50/barrel or below, then a 10-15% devaluation of the ruble would be useful for stabilizing the Russian economy and its markets. From these levels, both the ruble and equity markets have become extremely sensitive to the oil price.

"We are well aware that these outcomes will take time to resolve, and remain cautious as a result," Pharos says, "Our approach to risk management here is driven by the increase in realized volatility; we size our positions with an understanding that smaller capital usage generates similar market exposures to that seen prior to the crisis. Although today’s global economy is facing some enhanced probability of a calamity, the most likely outcome is that global demand ultimately is restored. Russia will be a major beneficiary of the world being saved."

Alex Akesson

Editor for HedgeCo.Net

Tags: asian-financial-crisis, boston, due-diligence-service, emerging-europe, gas-sector, global-wealth, grandchamp, henry-m-paulson, industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china, loan-deals, private-placements, russian-capital-markets, sole-concern, term-volatility

West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) – The leaders of the world’s 20 biggest economies will hold an historic meeting Saturday in a bid to head off the threat of a protracted global recession and forge a new world financial order. Called together less than two months ago by US President George W Bush, the emergency summit of the Group of 20 (G20) leaders at the Washington National Building Museum comes in the wake of the biggest crisis to engulf the world economy since the Great Depression.

Unleashed by the US mortgage meltdown, the upheaval in the world financial system that emerged in recent months has sent stock exchanges into a tailspin, undercut credit markets and prompted a drive for tighter worldwide regulation of the financial industry.

As the crisis spread from the United States to the wider world, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week forecast global growth would slow to 2.2 per cent in 2009, considered a global recession by the organization. Most advanced economies will contract over the same period.

Billed as a Bretton Woods-style gathering, after the 1944 meeting that established the post-Second World War financial system, this week’s summit marks the launch of a process world leaders hope will lead to an overhaul of the rule book for the global financial industry.

While a revision of the capitalist model itself may not be on the horizon, even financial institutions have recognized that more transparency and scrutiny of their business practices is now inevitable.

"We do believe that coming out of all this will be some rather fundamental reforms in the global financial architecture," said Charles Dallara, managing director of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), the world’s top banking lobby.

The IIF has even called for a new global body that could coordinate such reforms, but Dallara added: "I think it would be the height of misguidedness if we concluded that capitalism is dead. I think we do need to fix the things that went wrong."

But many governments have sought to lower expectations for the summit, while others have pushed for a broader agenda that could include climate change and trade policy.

"The summit has not been well prepared," said Heribert Dieter, senior fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. "It is not clear what those attending the summit really want to talk about."

Indeed, a major risk facing the summit is that it could expose deep divisions between the US and other key G20 states, with the Europeans expected to try press for more regulation than the US believes is necessary.

At the same time, major emerging economies such as China, Russia and Brazil are likely to demand a key role in drawing up the blueprint for the new financial system.

Responding to the slew of proposals for the Washington summit, the White House has said world leaders will agree on a set of "principles" for a regulatory overhaul and leave the specifics to a later date.

Those principles could include raising the low capital requirements that precipitated the current credit crisis by allowing banks to take excessive risks and amass mountains of debt. International credit-rating agencies could also face tougher scrutiny, and the summit will likely set in motion moves towards closer co-operation between national bank supervisory bodies.

In addition, there are plans for a crackdown on tax havens as well as financial sectors that have so far managed to evade regulation, such as hedge funds.

One of the more concrete measures likely to result from the G20 meeting is an expansion of the role played by the IMF, a global lender of last resort that has also traditionally been charged with maintaining economic stability.

Governments, central banks and legislatures around the world have already taken a series of unprecedented measures in an effort to stabilize the financial system, including coordinated interest-rate cuts and billion-dollar rescue packages for struggling banks.

Yet governments attending Saturday’s meeting are likely to face calls for the implementation of generous national economic stimulus plans to help the world economy limp through the current uncertainty.

Morris Goldstein of the Peterson Institute for International Economics said investments of 1-2 per cent of gross domestic product should be offered by every G20 member government that can afford it.

In addition to the world’s leading industrialized countries such as the US, Germany, Japan, Canada, Italy, Britain and France, the G20 also includes key emerging economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil, which have been a major source of global economic growth in recent years.

Coming less than two weeks after Barack Obama’s election and within a few months of Bush’s departure from the White House, the process will ultimately give the new president the chance to help reshape the global financial structure.

Obama will not attend the summit, stressing last week that the US only has "one president at a time," but the White House has said his team of economic advisors will be regularly informed on its progress.

Indeed, the scale of the changes that are to be considered are expected to take several months to implement and consequently form a key part of Obama’s early period in office.

Editing by Alex Akesson

Tags: boston, british-banks, closed-end-fund, dealer-operations, due-diligence-service, emerging-europe, global-asset-allocation, institutional-marketing, producer-prices, roel-campos, savings-and-loan-crisis, u-s-treasury

West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) – Employment offers in financial services fell by 11% in September compared to 6 months ago, according to Powerchex Limited, a pre-employment screening firm for financial institutions.

Research by Powerchex showed that Investment Banks made the biggest cutback with 52% less jobs being offered in September compared to 6 months ago. Uncertainty about the world economy heightened with the collapse of U.S investment bank Lehman Brothers, meaning that investment banks are reluctant to hire with the fear they may be the next to falter. Unemployed stockbrokers will also be worried by the news that there has been an 11% decline in the amount of jobs being offered by brokerage firms.

Despite this, investment managers saw a 22% increase in job offers as rival firms take advantage of the increasing number of financial services workers looking for a job by “snapping up the cream of the crop on much less than they would have been able to 6 months ago”, said Alexandra Kelly, Managing Director of Powerchex Limited.

Hedge fund and insurance companies also made more employment offers than 6 months ago as those companies who have been able to remain stable through the turmoil prepare to put themselves at the head of the pack to take advantage of any economic recovery.

IT contractors based at financial services firms have been the big winners with a 30% rise in job offers. Harvey Nash, whose business is predominantly IT outsourcing, this year announced a large rise in profits and strong revenue growth. The trend towards temporary workers is likely to continue as companies attempt to avoid long term commitments in the current economic climate, coupled with the fact that there are more highly skilled workers willing to take on temporary positions.

According to financial recruitment specialists Morgan McKinley, there has been a 42% rise in the number of financial services workers looking for a job in September, with this number likely to rise, those who are unable to secure permanent positions will be forced to accept temporary roles.

“The employment landscape in financial services is getting decisively more difficult, with offers being made only to the best candidates” says Kelly. “Applicants are well advised to be very candid in their CVs, as even a small discrepancy may disqualify them from a job they can ill afford to lose”. “I expect to see a rise in CV discrepancies, as the competition for financials jobs becomes more fierce”, she concludes.

Alex Akesson

Editor for HedgeCo.Net
Email: alex@hedgeco.net

HedgeCo.Net is a premier hedge fund database and community for qualified and accredited investors only. Membership on www.hedgeco.net is FREE and EASY. We also offer FREE LISTINGS for Hedge Funds!

Tags: advisory-services, boston, emerging-europe, lehman-brothers-holdings, mortgage-lenders, private-client, savings-and-loan-crisis, security-education, tim-howell, trips-to-mexico

West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net)- Hedge fund managers, gurus and ‘Out of the box’ guest speakers are gathering at the Grimaldi Forum to debate distressed investing issues and macro strategies for 2008.

The 14th Annual Gaim International 2008, a global hedge fund industry conference is being held tomorrow through Thursday in Monaco. The conference has 40 slots over 3 days and will cover issues such as the state of the world economy to strategy and hedge fund philanthropy.

1100 investors, distributors and asset managers are expected at the hedge fund industry’s flagship conference, attracting the largest proportion of asset allocators in hedge funds than any other alternatives event.

Hedge fund experts are scheduled to speak at the meeting, and the guest speakers include former holder of the land speed record, Richard Noble.

The conference is taking place as the $2.6 trillion hedge fund industry confronts poor returns and investor outflows and searches for a follow-up to the favored strategy for 2007, which was taking bets on the explosion in subprime loans.

Alex Akesson

Email: alex@hedgeco.net

HedgeCo.Net is a premier hedge fund database and community for qualified and accredited investors only. Membership on www.hedgeco.net is FREE and EASY. We also offer FREE LISTINGS for Hedge Funds!
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