100th Monkey Phenomenon: A Monkey or a Black Swan?
Pj de Marigny, DITMo Strategies
Director, GARP, S. California Chapter
23Oct2008, Newport Beach, CA. In the Ken Keyes, Jr book “Hundredth Monkey” (http://www.amazon.com/Hundredth-Monkey-Ken-Keyes-Jr/dp/094202401X)there exists a theory that ‘thoughts, views, and concerns are transmitted mind to mind.’
This Hundredth Monkey phenomenon may be used to predict trends in consumer products and is an influence for predicting randomness.
There are those of us (deMarigny is a Hedge Fund Strategist Portfolio Manager / DITMo / americade.com) who believe that the 100th Monkey may predict random events such as the present meltdown (see “demarigny” or “DITMo” on village.albourne.com search term for predictions of unavoidable meltdown late summer 2007). On the side, I even wrote a rock music song (AMERICADE.com / 1995)titled, “100th Monkey Phenomenon.”
However, there is something more basic to the Hundredth Monkey Phenomenon. I believe that when 51% of the thoughts and activities become dishonest, the system fails. Though this view is not widely accepted, I believe this is the cause of the Great Depression. Others try to rationalize after the fact the reason for an outlier event, but the causality was present previous – so why does an event happen when it happens?
The reason is that when 51% of thoughts and activities become dishonest an outlier event of randomness becomes certainty. Sometimes the system is to blame – a bad design. Government and Legislative bodies engaging in social engineering cause adverse impacts at the expense of the system; and there are those who will exploit it. This creates a fertile environment for dishonesty, and when 51% of the activities and thoughts become dishonest (the point where good faith or destructive activities begin) the system melts down. Fortunately, capitalism affords a self-correcting system so that dying leaves in the form of mulch recreates a fertile system (until the next cycle).
This cycle may be viewed as far back as the evil Israel Kingdom of Ahab/Jezebel (OMRI) in which wealth was greatest until 51% tilted to injustice, leading to reform by subsequent kings but ultimately resulted in Assyrian capitivity. The same fate is before the United States in that if the system disappears there will be nothing left to correct or reform. I believe the system will recover but if we were to truly reform the system to an imposed honesty, we would overturn the Federal Reserve Act in favor of a world central bank that controls central banks through a non-governmental body of non-market participant experts in financial risk.
The Hundredth Monkey Phenomenon will change the meltdown into stability in 2009 but by 2011 (see demarigny article on village.albourne.com “Financial Collapse and Creation of the World Currency Unit 2011”) there will be a universal currency that requires a world tax for legal tender. It is said that fear of punishment is the only true form of crime prevention, but the rules on white collar crime provide no clarity – violation is not clear and derived after abuse rather than providing avoidance by clarity. A world organization of financial expert non-market participants is needed, not government regulators, not more criminal proesecution. The system needs change. *.*