I have been reading the somewhat lengthy (aprox.250 pages) Global Future Analysis report by the Planck Foundation, I’ll try to do a short(ish) review.
“It has been said that there are three types of people: Those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who wonder what happened,” it says on the cover of the report.
The Global Future Analysis report covers the interfacing/interaction between the energy crisis and credit crisis, which has been making headlines globally, also analyzed is the water crisis and its effect on food prices.
The energy crisis has two effects, according to the report, energy will become much more expensive and no longer abundantly available. Firstly it will give a reach/distance contraction within the economy (less transport and less mobility, due to high energy prices). Secondly, due the fact that energy is used for everything, expenses will rise.
“You need to understand currency, credit, minerals, energy and water. Watching the news without some basic knowledge of those five is useless.” The report says, “knowledge of those five make the past, present and future clearer.”
The analysis is very up to date, covering the current dynamic credit and energy situation. Also the governmental bail-out fund (which it explains in depth, non-favourably) proposed by US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson which was turned down on September 29th by the House of Representatives.
”This big figure gambling can only lead to a disconnection with the rest of the world economy for the US, UK/Europe and Japan,” the report says, “due the fact that Euro and the Yen have today the highest possible dollar reserves ever, certainly since their massive support of the dollar of the last month. The Central Banks of Europe and Japan thought that they could fix the US problems overnight in buying lots of dollars since mid July till mid September.”
The report goes on to say, “production gives real payment power, that’s something the US economy is learning the hard way. Increasing production isn’t easy in these times of expensive energy. But combining the bail-out with production increase could do the job.”
One bright spot in all this, it says, “The Energy Crisis certainly will ‘bring the jobs back home’. Long distance travel will also decline (stimulating the national leisure industry) according to the report. Air travel, air transport, road transport and commuting are where we will see the effects of high oil prices instantly. Local is to be king of the 21st century.
The report approves of T. Boone Pickens proposal to re-energize America using peakoil/gas/coal, the benefits of wind energy and the exporting wealth facets (trade deficits and foreign policy) of oil imports. On the other side of the world, it also talks about the Chinese government deciding that sustainable prosperity is the most wanted/economic direction for the 21st century.
”Bail-outs without any structural change it will lead to nothing than more problems. And yes, Obama has a point when he said that mortgage bail-outs during the ‘30ties has proven to be successful. But those were other days: Back then there was no Energy Crisis that put restrictions to growth, something we certainly have now.”
The name of the commercial version is ‘The Perfect Storm: when the energy crisis joins the credit crisis.
About Alex Akesson
Alex has been specializing in hedge fund and alternative investment news since April 2006. Working mainly in research and manager interviews, she has published breaking news on the hedge fund industry on her blog, as well as several industry publications.
Her access to hedge fund managers gives her insight into news stories as well, and the ability to track press releases and other breaking news in real time.
Global Future Analysis Review
I have been reading the somewhat lengthy (aprox.250 pages) Global Future Analysis report by the Planck Foundation, I’ll try to do a short(ish) review.
“It has been said that there are three types of people: Those who make things happen, those who watch things happen and those who wonder what happened,” it says on the cover of the report.
The Global Future Analysis report covers the interfacing/interaction between the energy crisis and credit crisis, which has been making headlines globally, also analyzed is the water crisis and its effect on food prices.
The energy crisis has two effects, according to the report, energy will become much more expensive and no longer abundantly available. Firstly it will give a reach/distance contraction within the economy (less transport and less mobility, due to high energy prices). Secondly, due the fact that energy is used for everything, expenses will rise.
“You need to understand currency, credit, minerals, energy and water. Watching the news without some basic knowledge of those five is useless.” The report says, “knowledge of those five make the past, present and future clearer.”
The analysis is very up to date, covering the current dynamic credit and energy situation. Also the governmental bail-out fund (which it explains in depth, non-favourably) proposed by US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson which was turned down on September 29th by the House of Representatives.
”This big figure gambling can only lead to a disconnection with the rest of the world economy for the US, UK/Europe and Japan,” the report says, “due the fact that Euro and the Yen have today the highest possible dollar reserves ever, certainly since their massive support of the dollar of the last month. The Central Banks of Europe and Japan thought that they could fix the US problems overnight in buying lots of dollars since mid July till mid September.”
The report goes on to say, “production gives real payment power, that’s something the US economy is learning the hard way. Increasing production isn’t easy in these times of expensive energy. But combining the bail-out with production increase could do the job.”
One bright spot in all this, it says, “The Energy Crisis certainly will ‘bring the jobs back home’. Long distance travel will also decline (stimulating the national leisure industry) according to the report. Air travel, air transport, road transport and commuting are where we will see the effects of high oil prices instantly. Local is to be king of the 21st century.
The report approves of T. Boone Pickens proposal to re-energize America using peakoil/gas/coal, the benefits of wind energy and the exporting wealth facets (trade deficits and foreign policy) of oil imports. On the other side of the world, it also talks about the Chinese government deciding that sustainable prosperity is the most wanted/economic direction for the 21st century.
”Bail-outs without any structural change it will lead to nothing than more problems. And yes, Obama has a point when he said that mortgage bail-outs during the ‘30ties has proven to be successful. But those were other days: Back then there was no Energy Crisis that put restrictions to growth, something we certainly have now.”
The name of the commercial version is ‘The Perfect Storm: when the energy crisis joins the credit crisis.
About Alex Akesson
Alex has been specializing in hedge fund and alternative investment news since April 2006. Working mainly in research and manager interviews, she has published breaking news on the hedge fund industry on her blog, as well as several industry publications. Her access to hedge fund managers gives her insight into news stories as well, and the ability to track press releases and other breaking news in real time.