Reuters – Hedge fund assets will continue to shrink this year, falling as much as two-thirds from their 2007 peak, but investors will return and assets will rebound when the economy revives, Alex Ehrlich, global head of prime services at Swiss bank UBS, said on Monday.

Last year was the hedge fund industry’s worst ever, as asset values plunged and investors pulled out record amounts of cash. These trends, which forced hundreds of funds to close their doors and some to impose redemption curbs, are likely to continue this year before the industry rebounds, Ehrlich said at the Reuters Private Equity and Hedge Funds Summit in New York.

"All this proves is that the hedge fund industry is cyclical," he said. "But the idea of the death of the hedge fund industry is crazy. The industry will rebound, though it will not rebound to peak levels."

Ehrlich, who runs one of the world’s largest prime brokerages, said that in just the past year hedge fund assets have fallen from roughly $2 trillion to as low as $1 trillion.

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West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) -  Hedge funds generally are more correlated in bull market runs and more de-correlation at market downturns.

A comparison of the Credit Suisse/Tremont Broad Benchmark Index (HEDG), an asset-weighted broad benchmark of the hedge fund industry, to the MSCI World Index, a broad equity index, shows that the 12-month rolling correlation between the two has dropped from its peak of 0.97 in June 2006 to 0.61 in June 2008. The findings are given in a research report by Credit Suisse Index.

The report showed that during times of market stress sharp declines from HEDG’s previous peak levels of positive correlation with MSCI World demonstrated the ability to de-correlate from broad equity market indices.

Between July 2007 and June 2008, HEDG increased by 4.09% compared with a fall of 12.5% in the MSCI World Index and a decrease of 13% in the S&P 500.

The ability of hedge funds to maintain exposure to a range of asset classes allows them to preserve capital in down markets and, if successful, offer a more balanced investment option compared to traditional equity indices. In addition, the ability of hedge funds to monetise negative views through short selling is clearly effective during market downturns.

Editing by Alex Akesson

Editor for HedgeCo.Net
Email: alex@hedgeco.net

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