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HedgeCo.net (West Palm Beach) – Hedge fund investor consultant and adviser, Hennessee Group LLC, today announced some highlights from the first half of 2009 and the month of June, excerpts follow:
“Most hedge fund managers are not buying into the ‘Green Shoots’,” commented Charles Gradante, Co-Founder of Hennessee Group. “While markets rallied sharply in April and May, most managers remained conservative. I think we have reached an inflection point as momentum seems to have faded. We should see a return to stock picking based on fundamentals, which are rather negative. In addition, the technicals are also bad, leading us to believe in a summer correction.”
“Hedge funds have outperformed equity benchmarks by a 10% margin in the first half of 2009,” said Lee Hennessee, Managing Principal of Hennessee Group. “The outperformance is largely due to the ability of hedge funds to profit from their short portfolios, as we saw in January and February. While hedge funds are routinely publicized as high risk vehicles, the reality of the situation is that the average hedge fund has demonstrated significantly less volatility than traditional asset classes for the 22 years we have been advising investors.”
Despite a flat June, the second quarter gain was the strongest quarterly gain since 1998. In June, energy and materials sectors declined as worries mounted that the global economy could experience a drawn out recovery after the World Bank cut the global growth forecast.
Managers remain concerned that the recent rally in the financial markets and resurgence in confidence is built on hope supported by government stimulus rather than a real improvement in fundamentals (i.e., employment and housing).
Long/short equity funds will continue to rely on individual security selection while maintaining low levels of directional exposure as the official second quarter earnings season gets under way with the Alcoa earnings announcement on July 8th. Many managers are overweight technology in long portfolios, the top performing sector for the month and the year, while maintaining short positions in consumer and financial sectors.
Managers have found opportunities in strategic acquisition activity as well as distressed merger and acquisition activity.
After three months of strong gains, emerging markets cooled, declining slightly in June, but are substantially positive year to date. China was one of the few bright spots in June as the equity markets continued to advance. The Hennessee Macro Index declined -1.08% in June (+7.10% YTD).
While May was a record breaking month for commodities, June brought a sharp pull back. Positions in gold, silver, and agricultural commodities all detracted from performance as prices fell. Managers also suffered losses as the U.S. dollar rallied versus most currencies on speculation that the current market rally has ended and reports that the Fed will not expand its purchases of Treasuries. Oil was a positive, up +5.4% in June; although, many believe that prices are being driven by speculation and expect profit taking as oil is up +56.4% thus far this year.
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West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) – There were fewer redemptions in February 2009,($11 billion) compared to January,($30 billion), according to preliminary reports from Eurekahedge, pointing towards the easing of redemption pressures for hedge funds in the future.
The Hedge Fund Index was down 0.5% in February suggesting another month of loss mitigation and strong relative outperformance – The S&P500 was down 11%.
Interestingly, Eurekahedge says, fund of funds managers (-0.2%), on average, have now outperformed hedge fund managers for the first two months of 2009 after 12 months of consecutive underperformance for 2008.
Latin American funds were the only ones to finish the month with decent gains (0.7%), as managers in the region were afforded opportunities with the weakening of most regional currencies against the US dollar, among other things during the month.
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West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) – The top 10 hedge fund adminstraators reported $1.64 trillion in hedge fund assets under administration (AuA) in the Q4 2008, according to HFN, with Citco Fund Services, State Street Alternative Investment Solutions and Goldman Sachs Administration Services taking the top three positions.
HFN also released early estimates for February hedge fund asset flows which indicate the outflow from the industry continued during the month, but at a much slower rate than prior months. Early estimates show hedge fund assets fell an additional 2.2% in February 2009 to $1.746 trillion compared to a reduction of 7.6% in January 09.
The drop was largely due to net investor redemptions and fund liquidations of $35.9 billion during the month and combined with a reduction due to performance losses of $3.53 billion. Early estimates have the HFN Hedge Fund Aggregate Average -0.61% for February, but this figure will likely go lower as more funds report.
Taking into account internal estimates of where month end performance will likely settle, February 2009 should go down as the 5th highest level of hedge fund outperformance over equity markets in the last twenty years.
The Q4 2008 HFN Administrator Survey contains information on hedge fund and fund of funds assets under administration (AuA) from 60 administrators. Results detail total reported AuA, regional concentration, growth rates and top ten lists for more than 20 criteria.
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West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) -The events of 2008 were dramatic everywhere in the world, but particularly so in Russia. Despite the decline of – 74.2% for the MSCI Index in 2008, the Pharos Russia Fund produced a positive 3 year annualized return of 1.3% with 24.8% volatility as compared to the MSCI Russia Index.
The Pharos Russia Fund’s 5 year returns also show a strong outperformance against the MSCI Russia Index. The 11 year period of January 1998 through December 2008, which encompasses two market meltdowns and many other mini-crises, the Pharos Russia Fund has returned a total of 100.33%, against a gain of only 3.81% for the MSCI Russia Index.
"Our long history in the Russian financial markets through good times and bad times helps guide our investment philosophy and makes us mindful of the periodic crises that hit the market," Pharos says, "We seek to maximize our investor’s returns over the medium term, and one of the most important aspects of that is to protect against severe losses in times of crisis."
Their flagship fund, Pharos Russia Fund, has been the most resilient performer in the Russia & CIS universe in 2008 and in January 09, Pharos Russia was up +0.4% whereas the Russian market RTS was down -15.3% and the MSCI Russia down -11.6%.
The market conditions in Russia deteriorated in an accelerating fashion once the May holiday revelry had ended. The commodity cycle reversed as economic indicators began to reflect the demand destruction caused by the slowing of credit availability. Waves of deleveraging of the global financial system soon followed. Russia suffered initially as the commodity focused investors sold positions, and again as investors generally sold down positions to reduce leverage. The last victim was the Russian oligarch.
By this time, Pharos said, they had adjusted their positions to reflect the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the growing instability of global markets. "While our overlay gave investors protection against a collapsing market, we realized that the fundamental structure of the markets was changing, and that our risk management concerns had to change."
While this tale of misadventure is unsurprising for an emerging market, it has also become the dangerous reality in the US and other developed markets as well, Pharos said. "In Russia, there are a few key triggers that we are looking for before investing fully into the market. In past letters, we have identified credit normalization and commodity price stabilization as the two necessary, but perhaps not sufficient, conditions for Russia’s bear market to end. While we do not expect credit availability to reach the extreme levels of the last few years, basic credit does need to flow again for companies to move out of crisis mode and for trade to resume in a normal manner. The Russian government has taken admirable steps to deal with the shutdown of credit, and after a slow start is now using the large reserves built up during the commodity boom to supply credit to Russian corporations that need help rolling over their debt."
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