Each business day HedgeCo.Net keeps you informed with the top hedge fund industry news, opinion and insight from around the globe. From the latest hedge fund launches, to the impact of regulation, competition, and investor activism - we track the topics and people that make a difference to you.
Arlington Heights Daily Herald – In a typical recession, stocks start recovering about six months before the economy does. The crisis the United States is in right now, however, is anything but typical: Lending is frozen, hedge-fund selling is happening on a massive scale, and economic troubles have spread all over the globe.
As a result, it’s possible the U.S. economy will need to show signs of strength before the stock market stabilizes and regains steam. So with readings getting darker by the day, expect more of the same this week: extreme volatility.
"Volatility’s here, and it’s here to stay," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research. Last Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average finished down 312 points, "and it seemed like a victory."
Los Angeles Times – In a typical recession, stocks start recovering about six months before the economy does. The crisis we’re in right now, however, is anything but typical: Lending is frozen, hedge-fund selling is happening on a massive scale, and economic troubles have spread all over the globe.
As a result, it’s possible the economy will need to show signs of strength before the stock market stabilizes and regains steam. So with readings getting darker by the day, expect more of the same this week: extreme volatility.
Economist – Hedge funds are supposed to hedge. This year, they haven’t. The fund-weighted composite index compiled by Hedge Fund Research, a firm that tracks the industry, fell by 4.7% in September, the second-worst month on record. Since the start of the year it has lost 9.4%. The industry’s promises of “absolute returns” for investors now ring rather hollow.
To be fair to them, hedge funds have not been allowed to hedge. The restrictions on short-selling (betting on falling prices) imposed by regulators round the globe have played havoc with managers’ strategies in recent weeks.
Take the worst-performing strategy, convertible arbitrage, which lost the average fund 12% in the month. Convertible bonds are fixed-income securities that can be exchanged for shares in the issuing company. Historically, these bonds have been underpriced, because too low a value has been placed on the right to convert them to equity. So arbitrage managers have tended to buy the bonds and sell short the shares. Thanks to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s ban on the shorting of more than 900 stocks from September 19th to October 8th, that strategy no longer worked. And since the managers could not short the shares, they had to sell the bonds. As a result, the bonds’ prices plunged.
New York Post – The next issue for concern in the battered economy is whether there are going to be buyers for the nation’s billions in debt, Mayor Bloomberg said yesterday.
Speaking to students at Georgetown University, Bloomberg pointed out that Wall Street convulsions are being felt around the globe.
"Who’s buying our debt? It’s these overseas funds, these sovereign-wealth funds, these overseas hedge funds. They are in trouble now. So it’s not clear who is going to be buying" US Treasury bills, he said.
Bloomberg was planning to have breakfast in Washington today with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson – whom he described as an old friend – and Christopher Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Meanwhile, city Comptroller Bill Thompson warned that many high-paying jobs on Wall Street may be gone for good.
Tacoma News Tribune – Changes in winning and losing investments have come so swiftly of late that you might not have realized your favorite approach has backfired lately.
International funds – the hot funds of the last few years – have turned more disappointing than U.S. stock funds. Gold has lost its luster or, more precisely, more than $200 since reaching more than $1,000 an ounce a few months ago. Oil is in a bear market – a decline of 20 percent or more. Small-cap funds, which typically would be shunned during rough economic times, have been on a roll.
The last few weeks have shown why financial planners try to discourage clients from loading up on a few winners while discarding everything else. They know that changes in cycles can come quickly, and without warning, turning winners into losers and vice versa.
Many analysts are confessing their surprise at the twists of the last few weeks. It now appears that the globe is not immune from U.S. economic problems, although that was a favorite theory until a couple of months ago.
Bloomberg – Tokio Marine Holdings Inc. will shift more of its 11 trillion yen ($100 billion) in assets to hedge funds and scour the globe for bargains as the credit squeeze forces down prices.
Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., a unit of Japan’s biggest casualty insurer, may boost its investments in hedge funds by as much as 30 billion yen annually, said Fumihiro Nakajima, who runs the firm’s hedge fund investment group. The insurer has almost 200 billion yen in this asset class, he said.
“Our goal is to gradually increase hedge funds investments,” said Nakajima, 44, in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. “In the wake of subprime loan problems, there will be an opportunity to invest in hedge funds that invest in the credit market,” including high-yield bonds and credit-default swaps.
The Money Times – Last year, I read an article in which David Herro outlined his rationale for owning shares of UBS in his Oakmark International fund. He focused on the value of its wealth management unit, which delivers stable earnings and benefits from the spread of wealth across the globe. Fair enough, but UBS’ most recent quarterly results show the bank’s abysmal performance in other areas is now tarnishing its crown jewel.
After a fourth straight quarterly loss due to subprime writedowns, UBS’ Wealth Management unit suffered net outflows of 19.3 billion Swiss francs ($18.8 billion) — its first net outflows since the fourth quarter of 2000.
In response, the bank is reversing its "one bank" strategy by giving increased autonomy to its three businesses: Investment Banking, Wealth Management, and Asset Management. The initiative could pave the way to a spinoff or sale of the investment banking business.
