AllAboutAlpha.com – Critics of hedge funds often argue that industry growth has had two negative side-effects: firstly, that less-skilled managers have been attracted to the sector and second, that the number of alpha-generating opportunities has not kept pace with asset inflows. 

Assuming these are true, then it could be argued that recent industry shrinkage may lead to new opportunities.  In our monthly guest contribution from a member of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) Association, Tommaso Sanzin of Hermes BPK Partners suggests that recent headwinds have ushered in a new phase in the “hedge fund industry life cycle”. 

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Tags: bpk, chartered alternative investment, chartered alternative investment analyst, headwinds, hermes, industry life cycle, new-opportunities, pace, shrinkage, skilled managers, tommaso

Seeking Alpha – In 1997, some observers feared an impending global recession as a result of the headwinds stemming from the Asian financial crisis. However, within two years, those fears had dissipated and were replaced with new concerns of irrational exuberance.

In contrast, the U.S. economic downturn beginning in 2008 initially appeared to be relatively benign. Most observers believed that a moderation in U.S. economic growth was essential to prevent an over-heating of the global economy. It was further believed that the problems confronting the U.S. economy were of its own making and would have little effect on global economic growth.

To be sure, some economists did forecast a U.S. recession in 2008 as a result of mounting home foreclosures. Such forecasts were however widely dismissed as being unduly alarmist during the first quarter of 2008.

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Tags: asian-financial-crisis, economic-downturn, economists, fears, first quarter, global recession, global-economic-growth, global-economy, headwinds, home foreclosures, irrational exuberance, moderation, observers, seeking alpha