Each business day HedgeCo.Net keeps you informed with the top hedge fund industry news, opinion and insight from around the globe. From the latest hedge fund launches, to the impact of regulation, competition, and investor activism - we track the topics and people that make a difference to you.
The Economic Times – The mavens continue to pore over figures and analyse the why, how and after-effects of bankruptcy of the major-league investment bank Lehman , on September 15 last year. It’s clear that financial innovation in the mature markets was way ahead of the curve vis-a-vis regulation and prudential norms in this decade, and especially in the run-up to the recent global financial crisis.
A recent working paper at the National Bureau of Economic Research in the US has looked into how ‘shocks to fundamentals’ that affect wealth, read capital, of key financial institutions can well set off a severe downward spiral.
MarketWatch – Soros Fund Management had $24 billion in assets at the start of July, up more than 14% from the end of 2008 and more than 41% from a year earlier. That made the firm the fifth-largest in the hedge fund industry, up from sixth at the end of 2008, AR said.
Soros was one of the few investment managers to foresee the global financial crisis that erupted last year. As markets collapsed, he stepped back into trading, helping the firm’s flagship Quantum Endowment fund gain almost 10% in 2008. This year, the fund was up almost 19% through the end of July, AR reported.
Reuters – Foreign exchange trading volume in Japan has fallen 16 percent this year after many hedge funds closed out investments during the global financial crisis, and Tokyo’s turnover in spot trading now lags behind Singapore.
But steady turnover in FX swaps has helped Tokyo remain ahead of Singapore, its key rival as Asia’s dominant FX trading hub, in overall foreign exchange product trading, data on traditional FX instruments from the Bank of Japan showed.
New York (HedgeCo.net) – Hennessee Group LLC, an adviser to hedge fund investors, voiced concern in early 2009 that the global financial crisis could enter a new and more dangerous phase, one that could push several international countries to the brink of failure and further hinder the global economic recovery.
Of particular concern to the Hennessee Group was the dramatic growth in external debt exposures of G7 and emerging countries and the increasing risk of another outright failure similar to that of Iceland when they had a debt to GDP ratio exceeding 900%. However, Hennessee Group research now indicates that this risk has begun to subside as the majority of countries have experienced a decline in their overall external debt exposure in recent months after reaching all time highs in 2008. That said, the Hennessee Group now believes this development could come at the cost of economic growth as the majority of the decline in external debt has been due to a dramatic drop off in bank lending to foreign institutions.
Charles Gradante, Co-Founder of the Hennessee Group, noted “While the decline in external debt, particularly for countries like the U.K., is a positive development and is likely to reduce the risk of another Iceland, we fear the primary driver behind the external debt reduction, specifically the drop off in external bank lending, could ultimately slow the pace of the global economic recovery.” The Hennessee Group believes it is essential to global growth that banks resume prudent external lending to businesses and individuals to further alleviate the financial crisis and promote economic growth.
In its February 2009 research paper, the Hennessee Group highlighted numerous countries, particularly in the euro zone, that appeared to be building uncomfortably high external debt levels in recent years relative to their economic output. The bright spot, at that time, was the low level of U.S. external debt to GDP output (84%).
The Netherlands reached an external debt to GDP ratio of approximately 328%, while Ireland had a similar exposure ratio to that of Iceland, a staggering 900%. The UK’s debt to GDP ratio reached 456% while Switzerland’s rose to 433%.
Gradante stated, “We believe the build up in external debt was both alarming and unsustainable, particularly for many European countries, and that if the trend continued we could be at risk of a major systemic event.” Gradante continued, “Since our initial analysis, the majority of countries have started to reduce external lending.
The U.K. has decreased its external debt by nearly $3.5 trillion from its high of $12.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2008. While we believe this is a positive development from the perspective that it alleviates our initial concern regarding another Iceland; a closer look at the underlying numbers has revealed a new concern. The vast majority of the reduction is due to a decline in external bank lending, which we believe will present additional challenges going forward. Of the $3.5 trillion decline in the U.K. external debt, $2 trillion can be attributed to a drop off in external bank lending. This could present additional challenges to an economic recovery.”
The Hennessee Group believes this new trend is not just a problem isolated to the U.K. but rather a worldwide issue. In a recent press release by the Bank for International Settlements, they stated, “After a relatively small change in total outstanding stocks in the third quarter, banks’ external claims shrank by 5.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008 ($1.8 trillion at constant exchange rates), to $31 trillion.” They added, “This was the largest reduction ever recorded.” The global economy may very well struggle to recover if the banks remain unwilling to increase external debt lending and may result in a resurrection of protectionism.
Bloomberg – The U.K. Serious Fraud Office is investigating sales of structured-finance products such as credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations prior to the global financial crisis.
The SFO is looking into whether banks that sold the products knew that valuations were flawed, SFO spokesman Sam Jaffa said today. Jaffa said no specific companies have been targeted as part of the investigation.
“It’s one of those red flag areas that we’re looking at,” Jaffa said.
guardian.co.uk – A minister for Sweden, which took over the EU presidency on Wednesday, said hedge funds and private equity firms needed regulation but should not be viewed as a primary cause of the global financial crisis.
Speaking after a visit by the European Commission to Stockholm to mark the Nordic country’s start in the six-month presidency, Financial Markets Minister Mats Odell cautioned against "overzealous" regulation.
What was needed, he told Reuters, was well-considered, balanced regulation that helped avoid systemic risk.
"I believe there is an exaggerated view in some countries that private equity and hedge funds helped pull us into the crisis," Odell told Reuters.
guardian.co.uk – Investment companies and private equity firms suspect that they have been caught up in a directive whose real aim was hedge funds largely because it is so difficult to define hedge funds.
The Group of 20 leading world economies agreed in April that hedge funds above a certain size should be subject to authorisation and required to report data to supervisors as part of a broader extension of financial regulation in response to the global financial crisis.
But hedge fund managers believe the EU directive is so unclear and badly drafted that it would be dangerous to stick around to find out exactly what it means. The most worrying aspect of the directive is that it would allow regulators to limit the amount of leverage assumed by hedge funds.
Reuters Tokyo – Hedge funds are dipping their toes back into the dollar/yen options market after months of absence, betting that eventual interest rate tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve will help the greenback gain against the yen.
Dollar/yen’s implied volatility, a gauge of how much a currency pair is expected to move over a given period, has come down to levels not seen since before Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September, sending global markets into a tailspin.
The decline suggests market stress has eased substantially and investor confidence has risen after the battering dealt by the global financial crisis, but it also implies lessening demand for options to hedge against a further surge in the yen.
Opalesque – The Australian Fund Monitor (AFM) released last week its “March Absolute Return and Hedge Fund Review” report which showed that the strong rebound in equity markets both in Australia and overseas saw equity-based hedge funds managed in the region post not only their best returns this year, but for the past three years.
AFM took the results of all funds – including non-equity strategies such as Global Macro and Commodities, and including funds of funds, and found that all had posted the best result in March since the start of the Global Financial Crisis in 2007.
With the ASX posting an impressive rebound in March of over 7%, which continued in April, equity-based hedge funds (with 85% of funds results reported) returned 3.18%. Over the past 12 months, equity-based hedge funds returned a negative 13.20%, against the ASX 200 which lost 33.11% and the S&P500 which fell 39.68%.
The Australian – Australian managed equity-based hedge funds posted their strongest performance in March since the global financial crisis began in late 2007, but underperformed the market overall.
Data from Australian Fund Monitors showed that while the Australian equity market as a whole rebounded by 7 per cent during March, equity-based hedge funds returned 3.18 per cent over the month.
However, the funds have significantly outperformed the rest of the market over a 12-month period, declining by 13.20 per cent, compared to a 33.11 per cent negative return from the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index and a 39.68 per cent decline on the US-based S&P 500 Index.
Reuters – Three former executives at JPMorgan Asset Management plan to launch a Greater China hedge fund via a start-up in Hong Kong, tapping rising investor demand for Asian equities amid the global financial crisis.
"Greater China may be the first region to recover from the global economic crisis, and will certainly attract global fund flows," Lu Jun, one of the co-founders said in a telephone interview. "I think it’s good timing to launch the new fund."
Lu, previously a star fund manager at JPMorgan’s China fund venture, has teamed up with Man Wing Chung, former head of JPMorgan’s Greater China team, and Joseph Tang, who focused on Taiwan investment, to co-found JTM Capital Partners. The partners will start running a hedge fund in mid-June.
MLive.com – The Pentagon sponsored a first-of-its-kind war game last month focused not on bullets and bombs — but on how hostile nations might seek to cripple the U.S. economy, a scenario made all the more real by the global financial crisis. The two-day event near Ft. Meade, Maryland, had all the earmarks of a regular war game. Participants sat along a V-shaped set of desks beneath an enormous wall of video monitors displaying economic data, according to the accounts of three participants.
“It felt a little bit like Dr. Strangelove,” one person who was at the previously undisclosed exercise told POLITICO.
