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Arlington Heights Daily Herald – In a typical recession, stocks start recovering about six months before the economy does. The crisis the United States is in right now, however, is anything but typical: Lending is frozen, hedge-fund selling is happening on a massive scale, and economic troubles have spread all over the globe.
As a result, it’s possible the U.S. economy will need to show signs of strength before the stock market stabilizes and regains steam. So with readings getting darker by the day, expect more of the same this week: extreme volatility.
"Volatility’s here, and it’s here to stay," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research. Last Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average finished down 312 points, "and it seemed like a victory."
Bloomberg – U.S. regulators are investigating whether investors manipulated end-of-day stock prices to avoid being forced by their brokers to sell holdings.
These gaps, which caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to swing as much as 104 points this month in the final minute of trading, suggest investment firms faced with client redemptions and plunging markets may be gaming the closing-auction system. The discrepancies spurred the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, which oversees 5,000 brokerages, to look for evidence that investors are improperly swaying prices.
General Electric Co., McDonald’s Corp. and the 28 other Dow companies swung 0.6 percent on average at the close the last two weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s almost eight times greater than the average three months ago. Because of the swings, the New York Stock Exchange plans to distribute information on the closing auction more often to help mitigate volatility.
USA Today – Given the stock market’s wretched performance this year, your current retirement plan may involve a modest part-time job, such as woodworking or forgery.
Before you take up a life of crime, however, remember that really rotten markets sometimes uncover opportunities. In fact, the worse the market, the more bargains you can find. And right now, you can buy stocks and bonds of the nation’s best-run and most profitable businesses at astoundingly low prices. What’s more, you can collect dividends and interest while you wait for the economy to recover and for other investors to regain their senses.
First, and let’s not whitewash things here, the current market has all the appeal of a weekend in the local viper pit. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 679 points on Thursday alone; it has shed 5,585 points, or 39%, in the past 12 months.
BusinessWeek – What did investors do when the Dow Jones industrial average plunged 777.68 points, or 7%, on Sept. 29, to 10,365.45? Head for the nearest bar for a double? Or rush to double up, or down, on their stocks?
Either way, the Dow’s sharp response to the unexpected rejection by the House of Representatives of the Treasury’s buyout plan reminded investors yet again of how unpredictable and volatile the market can be.
"You’ve got to have a steel stomach to confront these types of markets—to survive or win," says William Harnisch, president of hedge fund Peconic Partners, which manages some $1.5 billion in assets. And a winner he’s been at a time when most other hedge funds are struggling to avoid sinking. In 2007, Peconic posted a 64% gain, and this year is up 8% though Sept. 29, vs. a decline of more than 20% for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. So Harnisch wasn’t one of those who scurried to the nearest tavern: He dared to buy stocks as the market plummeted.
New York (HedgeCo.Net) – Senate leaders will vote today on the $700 billion bailout package, after some key changes were implemented including tax breaks and higher limits for insured bank deposits.
The new limit proposals are something that both candidates and President Bush agree upon, leading some to believe that the bailout package, in its current incarnation, will finally be passed through Congress.
Though the details of the plan are not readily available, lawmakers are hoping that the changes will appeal to those republicans who were knocked the first proposal, while keeping the democrats who are otherwise against generous tax incentives for businesses.
“It has been determined, in our judgment, this is the best thing to move forward,” said Democratic Senator Harry Reid of Nevada.
While the bill has certain new elements to it, including extensions of unemployment along with tax credits for low income home-owners, the basic principle of the government purchasing $700 billion worth of bad debt and eventually re-selling them remains the same. The bill also has some room for new additions, though Christopher Dodd, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee warns, “Opening this up all over again to other things may doom it.”
Markets tanked following the rejection of the initial proposal on Monday, with the Dow Jones industrial average plummeting 778 points. Though the markets regained some vigor on Tuesday, many lawmakers felt a strong urgency to get a plan passed.
The FDIC currently insures up to $100,000 per account. The new proposal might see an increase in that amount to $250,000.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is confident about the new plan, telling President Bush that “Working together, we are confident we will pass a responsible bill in the very near future.”
Julie Scuderi Senior Editor for HedgeCo.Net Email: julie@hedgeco.net
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Washington Post – That is the technical economic term that best sums up a day in which the House of Representatives refuses to pass a $700 billion rescue plan pushed by the White House and congressional leaders from both parties, Wachovia is taken over in a deal that will have the government potentially owning 10 percent of Citigroup, a few European banks fail, the Federal Reserve and other central banks are forced to inject an additional $300 billion into the global banking system, the Dow Jones industrial average plunges 778 points, and investors everywhere rush to the safety of gold and short-term Treasury bills.
The basic problem here is that too many people don’t understand the seriousness of the situation.
Americans fail to understand that they are facing the real prospect of a decade of little or no economic growth because of the bursting of a credit bubble that they helped create and that now threatens to bring down the global financial system.
