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This is London – It also led many in the City to believe the Bank favours a weak currency, prompting a series of downbeat forecasts today. “I’m super bearish on the pound,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London-based head of foreign exchange at BNP Paribas.
“The Bank of England has made it clear it can’t afford a stronger currency.” He forecast the pound would fall to $1.50 in 12 months.
John Taylor, chief executive of New York hedge fund FX Concepts, said sterling will “get crushed” and sink as low as $1.45 in the coming months.
“The fundamentals in the UK are certainly not pretty,” he said. “It’s a race for the least ugly of the candidates, and I would argue that the US is going to be the least ugly for a while.” Others were more upbeat and said the measures taken by the Bank and the Government to ease the slowdown will boost sterling. HSBC predicted the pound would rise to $1.75 by the end of next year — midway between the high of $2.12 in November 2007 and the low of $1.38 in March this year.
Bloomberg – Most of the gains in Brazil’s currency and interest-rate futures markets this year are over, said Beny Parnes, chief strategist at BBM Gestao de Recursos Ltda., manager of Brazil’s top-performing hedge fund.
BBM pared back leveraged bets that yields on rate futures will fall and the real will strengthen after its Bahia 1 Fundo Investimento Multimercado jumped 86 percent this year, said Parnes. Bahia 1 has outperformed all 683 Brazilian hedge funds that manage more than 100 million reais ($53 million) as the central bank slashed the benchmark rate five times and the real surged 22 percent against the dollar.
Bloomberg – Stanley Ku, former head of Fortress Investment Group LLC’s Hong Kong office, plans to start an Asia- focused hedge fund to profit from macroeconomic developments, according to a marketing document given to potential investors.
Minerva Macro Fund, to be managed by Hong Kong-based Ku, will start investing in early August, two people with knowledge of the plan said. It seeks to generate annual returns of 12 percent to 22 percent trading stocks, interest rate, currency and commodity instruments in large and liquid markets, according to the document, obtained by Bloomberg.
guardian.co.uk – Sterling fell against the dollar to near a two-week low on Monday after a collapse of support for the UK’s ruling Labour Party in the European election raised the chances of further challenges to Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
Despite its losses against the dollar, the pound rose against the euro, as the single European currency came under broad selling pressure after Standard & Poor’s cut its sovereign rating on Ireland for the second time in three months.
Analysts said Labour’s drubbing in weekend European elections added to the uncertainty surrounding the political future of Britain’s embattled prime minister, who reshuffled his Cabinet on Friday after six of the party’s ministers quit.
Reuters Tokyo – Hedge funds are dipping their toes back into the dollar/yen options market after months of absence, betting that eventual interest rate tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve will help the greenback gain against the yen.
Dollar/yen’s implied volatility, a gauge of how much a currency pair is expected to move over a given period, has come down to levels not seen since before Lehman Brothers collapsed in mid-September, sending global markets into a tailspin.
The decline suggests market stress has eased substantially and investor confidence has risen after the battering dealt by the global financial crisis, but it also implies lessening demand for options to hedge against a further surge in the yen.
