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Seeking Alpha – In 1997, some observers feared an impending global recession as a result of the headwinds stemming from the Asian financial crisis. However, within two years, those fears had dissipated and were replaced with new concerns of irrational exuberance.
In contrast, the U.S. economic downturn beginning in 2008 initially appeared to be relatively benign. Most observers believed that a moderation in U.S. economic growth was essential to prevent an over-heating of the global economy. It was further believed that the problems confronting the U.S. economy were of its own making and would have little effect on global economic growth.
To be sure, some economists did forecast a U.S. recession in 2008 as a result of mounting home foreclosures. Such forecasts were however widely dismissed as being unduly alarmist during the first quarter of 2008.
West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) - Morningstar presented their monthly analysis of hedge fund performance for November and asset flows through October.
"Hedge funds have a long path to recovery ahead of them," said Hedge Fund Analyst Nadia Papagiannis. "November was a better month than the last two, mostly because hedge funds hoarded cash, but they are still losing money on their investments and facing the ongoing challenge of funding investor redemptions."
Hedge funds slid again in November, as the Morningstar 1000 Hedge Fund Index lost 2.5% for the month and 23.7% year to date. Hedged against the appreciating U.S. dollar, the asset-weighted Morningstar Composite Hedge Fund with MSCI Index fared better dropping only 0.8%. Hedge funds charge performance fees on any new profits earned, but those have been scarce since November 2007.
Compounding the funds’ pain, investors have responded to the lackluster performance by pulling more than $20 billion in October, which accounts for the bulk of the $29 billion withdrawn over the last 12 months from hedge funds.
Hedge funds of funds performed better than multi-strategy hedge funds this month, as the Morningstar Hedge Fund of Funds and the Morningstar Multi-Strategy Hedge Fund Indexes dropped 2.3% and 3.0% respectively.
November returns and October asset flows for the Morningstar Hedge Fund Indexes are based on funds that reported as of Dec. 16, 2008. Returns for the Morningstar Hedge Fund Indexes with MSCI are based on funds that reported November performance as of Dec. 14, 2008.
As announced in September 2008, Morningstar is also now calculating hedge fund indexes by applying the MSCI Hedge Fund Index Methodology and Hedge Fund Classification Standard to Morningstar’s hedge fund database. These indexes demonstrate the performance of hedge funds to investors who have hedged their currency exposure back into U.S. dollars. The MSCI Hedge Fund Index Methodology classifies hedge funds by investment process, geography, and asset class.
But the news was not all doom and gloom. Once again, the Morningstar Global Trend and Global Non-trend Hedge Fund Indexes performed well, funds in these categories experienced outflows during October, global trend funds saw overall inflows of $9 billion for the first 10 months of the year, more than every other category. Emerging markets fared poorly, as dwindling demand for commodities depressed the equities in commodity-based economies. The Morningstar Emerging Markets Hedge Fund Index lost 5.1% in November.
The Morningstar Developed Asia Hedge Fund Index’s relatively small loss of 0.3% was bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s interest rate cut and stimulus package announcement. The Morningstar Japan with MSCI Hedge Fund Index gained 0.5%. U.S. equity hedge funds performed among the worst this month, small capitalization equities took a beating in November, but most hedge funds hedged, as the Morningstar US Small Cap Equity Hedge Fund Index ended down only 4.6%, as compared to the Russell 2000 Index’s almost 12% decline.
The Morningstar Security Selection with MSCI Hedge Fund Index, with component funds that also take directional bets on equities, lost 2.7%. For the year to date through October, directional Europe and U.S. equity funds experienced significantly more outflows than other categories. Funds that kept a lid on market exposure fared relatively well this month. U.S. Treasuries across the board showed the largest monthly gain in decades amid poor economic data, fears of deflation, and a government plan to buy U.S. mortgage-backed securities.
The Morningstar 1000 Hedge Fund Index, a global, broadly representative benchmark for hedge fund performance, has return history from January 2003.
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West Palm Beach (HedgeCo.net) - The Russian market continued to sell off in October as the global financial crisis continued to wreak havoc everywhere, according to the Pharos Russia Fund, October was the fifth consecutive month of losses for the RTS Index, and its 36% loss was the third worst month in the history of the Russian market after August 1998 (-56%) and May 1998 (-39%).
During the month of October, the Pharos Russia Fund was down 12.9%, the Pharos Gas Investment Fund was down 12.8% and the Pharos Small Cap Fund was down 27.4%. Meanwhile the MSCI Russia Index was down 35.3% over the same period. The Russian government has been extremely pro-active during the crisis with its financing and stimulus packages. Thus far, more than $200 billion has been made available to the banking sector.
The Ruble dropped against the dollar causing the sector to suffer as it was one of the most popular investment themes of the year, with both Long Only funds and Hedge Funds heavily invested into the sector. As Hedge Fund (Emerging Market, Commodities and Global Macro) deleveraging accelerated rapidly during the month, these stocks were aggressively liquidated, causing very sharp price falls.
The last week of October also saw aggressive action from many of the main government actors on the global stage – the US Fed, ECB, IMF, Central Bank of China, Central Bank of Japan and many others all took steps to inject liquidity into their respective financial systems.
In the face of all of this aggressive government action, economic statistics and corporate results continue to paint a very gloomy picture. Again, the bottom line is that while governments and central banks are stepping in with a huge amount of stimulus, the private sector is slowing rapidly and that slowdown may overrun the extensive government efforts to keep the world economy from contracting.
It will take some time before the outcome of this battle to forestall deflation is known, so the next months look certain to continue to be extremely volatile. During this time of heightened volatility, Pharos looks to a few leading indicators to inform their next moves. The oil market needs to stabilize in order to remove pressure on the ruble. Should the oil price remain around $50/barrel or below, then a 10-15% devaluation of the ruble would be useful for stabilizing the Russian economy and its markets. From these levels, both the ruble and equity markets have become extremely sensitive to the oil price.
"We are well aware that these outcomes will take time to resolve, and remain cautious as a result," Pharos says, "Our approach to risk management here is driven by the increase in realized volatility; we size our positions with an understanding that smaller capital usage generates similar market exposures to that seen prior to the crisis. Although today’s global economy is facing some enhanced probability of a calamity, the most likely outcome is that global demand ultimately is restored. Russia will be a major beneficiary of the world being saved."
Alex Akesson
Editor for HedgeCo.Net
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Washington Post – Central banks in the United States, Europe and Japan will consider taking foreign-denominated assets as collateral in an effort to provide liquidity for battered financial markets, the Nikkei newspaper said on Sunday.
Currently most central banks only accept assets denominated in their home currency as collateral, the paper said. If central banks were to accept assets denominated in other currencies, cash-strapped firms would be able to get funds easier, it said.
Six central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are discussing a potential rule change, the Nikkei said.
The paper did not quote any sources and no one was immediately available at the Bank of Japan for comment, however BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said earlier this week the move was under consideration.
