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Aaron Wormus is the managing director of HedgeCo Networks, and part-time financial and technology blogger for Wormus.com.
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Alex Akesson is the author of Hedgefunds-Weblog.com, providing breaking news and interviews for the hedge fund industry.
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Peter J. de Marigny is Portfolio Manager of DITMo® Strategies, an Equity Hedge, Aggressive-Income Objective, Buy/Write Portfolio for an Aggressive-Income Objective used as an Enhanced Cash investment vehicle. Pj is also Head of Risk Alternative Strategies for Newport Beach, CA advisor Renovatio Asset Management. » View Peter J. de Marigny
Jesse Marrus Jesse Marrus is the Founder and CEO of StreetID, a financial career matchmaking, news and networking site.  He has unique insight into the financial services job industry including career advice, employment trends, fund formations, layoffs and hiring developments.  » View Jesse Marrus
Rashida Fleet is involved with consulting and working with managers during the fund launch phase. Her work includes; interviewing managers, collecting information for the HedgeCo database and contributing to the HedgeCo News feed.
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Tim Seymour is co-founder and managing partner of Red Star Asset Management, as well as Chief Operating Officer of the $116 million Red Star Double Alpha Fund.
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Richard Heller Richard Heller is a partner at the New York City law firm of Thompson Hine LLP. His experience is in the formation of private offerings for hedge funds as well as the formation of registered broker-dealers and RIAs.
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Bret Rosenthal Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds.
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Cameron Hight, CFA, is an investment industry veteran with experience from both buy and sell-side firms, including CIBC, DLJ, Lehman Brothers and Afton Capital. He is currently the Founder and President of Alpha Theory™, a Portfolio Management Platform designed to give fundamental money managers the ability to create their own repeatable discipline to organize the complex process of portfolio management.
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Yesterday, the equity markets sold off over 2% while the US$ and GOLD moved sharply higher. That’s right, you read correctly, Gold and the US$ moved up together. This action comes as no surprise to the partners of RCM. Over the last year or so, I have explained to anyone willing to listen that the real move higher in Gold prices will occur in spite of or along with an initial move higher in the US$.

One reason the US$ initially moves higher with Gold can be accredited to the carry trade unwind which artificially drives funds back into US$ investments. As an example simply look at the strength of US Treasuries yesterday. As risk is unwound money moves into the relative safely of US Treasuries. I write ‘relative safety’ because as currencies around the world continue to devalue owning US Treasuries will not protect buying power. The only true safe haven in a world intent on currency debasement will be the precious metal Gold and Silver.

I will allow Briefing.com to supply the summary of yesterday’s trading. As you will see they have done an exemplary job…

WRAPX End of Day Summary: Stocks Drop Sharply in High Volume Trade

A high-volume selling effort in response to downgrades on the sovereign debt of Greece and Portugal sent stocks to their worst percentage loss in more than two months, but drove the dollar to its best gain in four months… Early trade was rather lackluster as widespread weakness among overseas markets weighed on mood of morning participants… Data didn’t do anything to improve the mood either. The S&P/CaseShiller 20-City Composite made its first increase since 2006 with a 0.6% year-over-year increase, but that was still weaker than the 1.3% annual increase that had been expected… Consumer confidence climbed in April as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index came in at 57.9, which was not only higher than the 53.5 that had been expected, but was the best reading since August 2008…

Weakness quickly worsened when it was learned that credit analysts at Standard & Poor’s downgraded Greece’s debt to junk and cut Portugal’s debt two notches to A-. Subsequent selling pressure sent the Dow down roughly 150 points in just 30 minutes. It even pushed through its 20-day moving average for the first time since February. It was never able to recover and, as a result, finished near its session low…

The wave of selling sent volatility sharply higher. In fact, the Volatility Index made its way up more than 30% to its highest level since February…

Many market participants fled to the dollar for safety. That gave the greenback a 1.3% gain against a basket of foreign currencies. The euro was especially weak as it fell to 1.3179 against the buck. That puts it on par with its one-year low against the dollar…

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Is it a bear or a windmill we’re stalking?

You may find yourself asking that question as the equity markets drift higher seemingly oblivious to a myriad of negative news.  Classic commentary such as “the market climbs a wall of worry” or “the trend is your friend” are being bandied about with increased regularity.  Of course, these sayings are useless when the bottom falls out of the market but for now they appear reassuring as they add to the overwhelming feeling of complacency pervading the equity markets.

In the interest of  remaining open-minded and having a strong desire to avoid Don Quixote’s fate, I will offer the following analysis that could buttress a case for continued equity price support. 

Instead of relying on hackneyed phases and static commentary let’s focus on the building strength of the inflation trade.  Yesterday, the FOMC minutes were released with the following headlines… 

FOMC Minutes Released: Fed says economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in early 2010, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time

Fed Minutes say if economic outlook worsened or trend inflation declined further, “extended period” of low rates could last “quite some time” – Reuters

Read complete FOMC Minutes  

 The Fed clearly feels inflation is of no concern. Apparently, all FOMC members with the exception of Hoenig are unwilling or unable to read commodity price charts.  Several key raw materials are experiencing impressive price appreciation as seen in the following charts…

Copper:

copper

Crude Oil:

crude 

Platinum:

platinum 

Palladium:

palladium

If this commodity price surge continues then conceivably equity prices could continue to grind higher as often happens at the beginning of an inflationary period.  You may notice, I did not include a Gold or Silver price chart in the above group.  As you will see below, Gold and Silver prices have yet to hit a new high and will need to do so for the inflation trade theory to be legitimate.  

Gold:

gold

Silver:

 

silver

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Greek funding update: Deal complete, interest acceptable, funding crisis averted for now….

New Greek €5 Billion 10 Year Bond Prices At 300 Over Midswaps, 326 bps Over 2020 Bund, Comes With 6.25% Coupon 

        Greek debt chief says bids for 10-year bond at EUR14 bln – DJ

DJ reports the Greek government’s offering of 10-year bonds has attracted EUR14 billion in bids, and will close soon, the head of the country’s debt management agency said. In the wake of a new package of austerity measures announced Wednesday, the government earlier launched an offering of 10-year bonds through a group of lead managers that comprises Barclays Capital, HSBC Holdings, National Bank of Greece, Nomura and Piraeus Bank. “The bond offering is going very well, beyond expectations,” said Petros Christodoulou. The government aims to raise EUR5 billion through the offering, but it appears to be heavily oversubscribed. After launch, Greece cut price guidance on the EUR5 billion, 300 basis points over mid-swaps from 310 basis points… “The bidding so far shows that confidence has returned to the Greek bond market,” a senior government official said. “It is a very good development. Everyone is breathing easier now.”

Guest post from Bill H.. His take on the CDS market is dead on and thought provoking, enjoy…

Credit default swap lunacy!

Dubai, Greece and the rest of the PIIGS, now Britain and next the U.S.. Speculators are pushing currencies and sovereign bonds and yields higher and lower almost at will using the CDS (credit default swaps) market. These rocket scientists hedge and or speculate (even attack) currencies with these CDS products and go to sleep at night with a clear conscience. They sleep tight each night not caring what destruction they have caused real people and the real economy and take mistaken solace that if say Greece were to fail “they are hedged”.

I am going to tell you that NO ONE with any CDS product is hedged against anything! First you must understand that if sovereigns begin to default, there will be no end until the last, biggest and most egregious financial entity falls (the U.S. Treasury). These CDS products look good on the books but who can afford to lose and make the winners whole? What currency do you get paid in if you win? My point here is the “counter party risk”. The only way a CDS product could be secure and iron clad is if it were written by a Gold depository and payable in Gold which has been authenticated, assayed and audited as to purity and it actually being there for payment.

We hear that CDS spreads widen for this country or that one. We have even heard this about the U.S. from time to time. But think about how stupid it would be to “insure” against a U.S. default with ANY paper product issued by ANY issuer. When the U.S. finally goes whether it be through default or hyperinflation, the Dollar will ultimately “go away”. So what if you were right? Are you getting paid in Dollars that became worthless? Isn’t this what you were insuring against in the first place? So you win but you receive bazillions of pieces of the very same paper you were insuring against and thus YOU LOSE?

Oh I see…you insured against a U.S. default and will get paid in Euros. This makes all kinds of sense since a U.S. default certainly won’t submarine Europe. This logic works forwards, backwards or in either direction! What I am saying here is that once ANY sovereign default occurs, IT”S OVER! EVERYTHING paper goes boom and in a puff of smoke so does ALL the “supposed” value. EVERYTHING paper blows away and ONLY assets that you can touch, feel and actually USE (manufacturing, farmland, mining) will have or retain value!

THE only true hedge against ANY sovereign default is either Gold or Silver, period. Gold and Silver are real money and will accrue ALL of the “printed” monies’ value over the years. This is a difficult concept to understand but all the fiats that have ever been printed in the past and present really had no value other than “confidence” value. Each Dollar, Pound, Yen, Euro etc. that has come into existence will “spill” its value into the metals upon its demise. I can’t believe that no one has yet (other than Jim Sinclair) publicly explained the stupidity employed in the “CDS protection” scheme.

Credit default swaps are not protection, they are nuclear land mines scattered across the land that will go off in succession after the first one is tripped. OR as Mr. Sinclair says, they will print to oblivion and wipe out all paper values through hyperinflation. Either way if you have wealth tied up in metal or mining shares, you will win in the end. Have you ever wondered why there is no such animal as a credit default swap on physical Gold? Could this be because Gold cannot default? Taking a leap forward, when everything else is defaulting (including and especially CDS products), doesn’t it make sense that fear capital will seek that that cannot default? Now that’s simple logic! Regards, Bill H.

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Inflection Point For Gold?

Posted By Bret Rosenthal, March 3rd, 2010 : Permalink

My Feb. 25th remarks  stressed the need for a solid defense based on the current market environment. Today, let’s have some fun and talk offense.

We at RCM have carried the precious metals torch for quite some time. We have explained on countless occasions via this blog, via radio interviews and through one on one conversations, that prodigious fiat currency creation around the world will lead to one unassailably predictable outcome: Higher Gold and Silver prices.   

We have not wavered from our stance despite, at times, an overwhelming din that spews forth from the chorus of naysayers and neophytes. However, we are not so arrogant as to avoid the necessary and important process of challenging our own beliefs. We continue to question our own conviction by analyzing the behavior of Gold and Silver vs. the US$, Euro, GBP and other currencies.

The results of this analysis from the past two weeks are in and the prognosis remains bullish with an increased likelihood of  ’wildly’. We have often stated that the true inflection point for Gold will come when it rises in price vs. all currencies at the same time. Well, in true Shakespearean fashion,  I say to the Caesars of today, beware the Ides of March….

Gold Surges With DXY Positive For The Day

No, you are not reading that chart wrong. Gold just surged to near two month highs, hitting $1130/oz, or $12 higher, even as the dollar is green for the day. The fiat currency inferno is picking up, as traders refuse to keep their money in anything but gold or dollars – proof of tungsten gold counterfeiting is not helping the gold shorts. From the 2010 lows, the currency devaluation “safety trade” has been Gold and the USD, in a ratio of 5-1!

Read More…

Meet The New Regime: Gold And Dollar Coincident  

For all those who expect to see a strong dollar result in lower gold prices: our condolences. Gold is now as much a flight-to-safety target, as the the ra(p/b)idly devaluable dollar (and all other fiat currencies), as has been repeatedly observed on Zero Hedge. The chart below demonstrates that over the past three weeks, not only has dollar strength resulted in gold strength, it has resulted in gold strength at a 6X multiple.

Read More…

Another Record For Euro-Denominated Gold  

As the euro is plunging (and dollar by implication surging) with gold yet again flat and looking like it may turn positive for the day, gold denominated in euros just hit another all time record of €827.

Read More…

In ancient Rome the government clipped coins to devalue the currency.  Nero, in 64 CE, was the first to come up with the idea to actually debase coins by reducing their content. Today, currency debasement has become an art form as evidenced by the story below. For our society, will the outcome of such debasement mirror that of Rome?….

US Dollar Money Supply Is Underreported

March 1, 2010 – As the financial crisis has unfolded over the last two years, the Federal Reserve has been responding in a variety of unprecedented ways.  Therefore, it is logical to assume that these never-before-used actions have altered long-established ways of viewing things.  One area that has been impacted is the US dollar money supply.

The quantity of dollars in circulation is being underreported by relying upon the traditional and now outdated definitions used to calculate M1 and M2.  These ‘Ms’ are calculated and reported by the Federal Reserve based on the following guidelines that identify the several different forms of dollar currency used in commerce:

Read More…

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A maelstrom of misinterpretation dominates the financial media outlets today in regards to last night’s Fed action.

Click here for my audio post on the recent decision by the Fed to increase the discount rate.

After listening to the above post, Gary Rosenthal had the following comments on the Fed move:

1) Federal Reserve banks currently have a record high of $1.14 Trillion of excess reserves on deposit with the Fed. Thus, an increase in the discount rate is meaningless because the banks have no need to borrow and will not be borrowing for a very long time.

2) Therefore, we believe raising the discount rate at this point was merely a ploy to strengthen the US$ in advance of a major Treasury auction next week.

3) Note the anomalous strong behavior of Gold during the last 72hrs in the face of overwhelmingly “bearish” news: IMF announces further Gold sales, Fed increases discount rate and Gold Feb. futures/option expiration next week.

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Euro zone gives Greece 30 days to show good on deficit – Reuters

The tsunami of Greek fear begins to ebb and like proverbial clockwork the US$ drops almost 1%, the equity markets rally over 1% and Gold runs back above the $1100 level up over 1.5%.

By now, as readers of this blog, the financial market behavior described above should come as no surprise.  I exposed the market’s playbook on Feb. 9th and directly addressed the perennial gold bears by saying, “They have not owned Gold during its nearly 300% increase over the last 10 years, but somehow, through a haze of delusional arrogance, they are sure prices have peaked.”

In the five days since that comment Gold has rallied 5%.  Coincidence? Maybe. I’ll concede, sometimes we’re simply lucky, but when understanding is acute luck becomes more pervasive and that, my friends, is called success.

For the last few months, the fear of  reduced stimulus and quantitative easing has gripped the markets. In an apparent effort to support the US$, government officials and Fed members have raised the expectations of economic growth and reduced expectations of Q.E.. I have, time and again, called this type of  jawboning nothing more than propaganda. I explained as much in my Jan. 20th post and highlighted the “need for a new round of stimulus” demand from the conference of mayors on Jan. 22nd as the beginning of a shift in the wind.

Well, today, I would like to say, the wind is a steady 10-15kts in the direction of stimulus and looks to be increasing over the coming weeks.  Evidence for this forecast below…

IMF tells bankers to rethink inflation – WSJ

WSJ reports the IMF’s top economist, Olivier Blanchard, says central bankers should consider aiming for a higher inflation rate than they do currently to lessen the chances of repeating the recent severe recession. Mr. Blanchard said the global economic downturn revealed flaws in macroeconomic policy, especially the reliance primarily on interest rates to manage economies. Although Japan had fallen into a decade-long funk despite low inflation and low interest rates, “most people convinced themselves that the Japanese didn’t know what they were doing,” Mr. Blanchard said in an interview. In a new paper with two other IMF economists, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia and Paolo Mauro, Mr. Blanchard says policy makers need to consider radically different approaches to deal with major banking crises, pandemics or terrorist attacks. In particular, the IMF paper suggests shooting for a higher-level inflation in “normal time in order to increase the room for monetary policy to react to such shocks.” Central banks may want to target 4% inflation, rather than the 2% target that most central banks now try to achieve, the IMF paper says.

Australian Finance Minister Says More Stimulus Needed

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Australian Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner said the nation’s economy remains fragile and that it will require more stimulus this year.

Australia’s long-term debt, accumulated through the global financial crisis, is also a serious matter, Tanner said on Network Ten’s “Meet the Press” program.

Read More…

G-7 Vows to Keep Economic Stimulus Even as Budget Deficits Grow

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Group of Seven finance ministers pledged to press ahead with economic stimulus measures even as investors intensify their focus on mounting budget deficits.

Read More…

In conclusion, I’d like to accentuate the following analysis of the Japanese experience with private sector de-leveraging. I feel these issues are at the very center of the problems facing our markets…

Richard Koo’s book about the lessons from Japan’s balance sheet recession: The crux of his analysis is that governments have no option but to stimulate aggressively all the while the private sector is de-leveraging. ANY attempt at fiscal cuts simply results in renewed recession and a further loss of confidence, thus making it even harder and more costly to sustain any subsequent recovery and hence the budget deficit ends up bigger than before.

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Turn off the TV and forget about the newspaper. If you want to understand the equity market gyrations of the last couple of weeks simply log on to an internet service like Briefing.com and watch for updates to the sovereign debt crisis.   Today’s trading is a perfect example of this new paradigm.  The Greek tragedy has turned into a farce as constant rumors have succeeded in whipping the markets into a frenzy.

Markets opened today’s trading on a firmer note because…

Greek bailout speculation lifts euro – Reuters

Reuters reports euro rose on Tuesday on speculation that European Union nations could bail out errant member Greece, while global stocks were flat and emerging market shares climbed. Expectations about a rescue for Greece followed news that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was leaving a meeting of central bankers in Sydney early to attend a European Union leaders’ summit. EU leaders will hold a special summit on the economy on Thursday in Brussels amid increasing worries that Greece and other so-called peripheral euro zone economies cannot handle their debts and deficits. Spreads between German 10-year bonds and Portuguese and Spanish equivalents tightened. The spread with Greek debt was steady, but wide at 365 basis points.

…Then things went into high gear when this story hit the wire:

Germany Preparing Aid Package To Greece, FTD Says — Bloomberg

…The above news hit at 11:48, but wait, at 12:41 the following news splashed the wire and markets swooned:

German govt spokesman says reports about decision on aid for Greece are “unfounded” – Reuters

…But cooler heads prevailed and by 2:43 the market regained its footing as…

Germany considering loan guarantees for Greece, other troubled Euro partners, source says – WSJ

My purpose for the play by play of today’s equity action is to illustrate the lunacy of attempting to build an investment strategy based on short-term market swings.

After a couple of weeks of a strong US$ brought on by the Greek situation, I am inundated with comments from would-be experts that the rally in Gold is over.  These same experts, who are convinced they can spot the top in Gold prices, have been unable to spot the best bull market of the last decade. They have not owned Gold during its nearly 300% increase over the last 10 years, but somehow, through a haze of delusional arrogance, they are sure prices have peaked.  

When will Gold prices peak? Don’t know for sure. Trying to pick a price is a fool’s errand.  But I will tell you this: When Gold is, say, $3000/oz and I’m inundated with comments that prices are headed for $6000/oz I’ll be selling.

The following comments exemplify the actual long term trends we believe require scrutiny during the building of an investment strategy.  Yes, sovereign debt woes are a problem, but so are the debt woes of US states.  Running from the Euro into the US$ appears short-sighted and, to us, resembles the hapless effort of running from the deck into the galley of the Titanic. The only real safety (in a world where governments are playing the dangerous game of competitive devaluation and stimulus leapfrog) is the safety of Gold. Please hold onto the bar….    

In a nutshell, toxic assets have basically been swept under the rug in the hopes that we will outgrow the problem. Leverage ratios across every level of society are still reaching unprecedented levels as the public sector sacrifices the sanctity of its balance sheet in its quest to stabilize the dubious financial position of the household and banking sectors in many parts of the world.

Whatever bad assets have been resolved have almost entirely been placed on the books of governments and central banks, which now have their own particular set of risks, as we have witnessed very recently in places like Dubai, Mexico, and Greece, not to mention at the state and local government level in the United States. We simply have not seen a reduction in the percentage of properties with mortgages that are “under water”, hence the FDIC has identified 7% of banking sector assets ($850 billion) that are in “trouble”, so how can it possibly be that the financial system is anywhere close to some stable equilibrium? – David Rosenberg

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Perspective: US$ vs. Gold

-US$ tops out on March 2nd, 2009 and declines by 18% at the low on December 1st.

-During the same time period (March 4th – Dec. 3rd) Gold prices rise 34.8%

-From Dec. 1st to Jan. 29th the US$ rallies 6.5% while Gold prices fall 12.28%

-The US$ rally has failed to break above the 200-day moving average and remains in a long-term downtrend.

-The Gold price advanced 30% from Sept. thru Dec. to reach a high of $1,225, has since retraced 50% of that move and has settled around $1,100. This is normal action in the context of an overall uptrend and it is action that would be considered healthy.

Question: What is the fundamental basis for a US$ rally or decline?

Answer: The continuation or cessation of Quantitative Easing/easy credit in all forms.

This is a simple answer to a complex question, you say? Respectfully, I say, “Wrong, the question is not complex.” Traditional financial news outlets would like you to believe the question is complex so you continue to waste time and money in your effort to understand.

For two months the US$ has rallied, not because the economy is recovering or company earnings are improving, but because the possibility of continued Q.E. was in question.  All of the participants involved  in the events I list below benefited from a stronger US$ and created all sorts of sound bytes during the last two months to champion their cause. The biggest beneficiary of this jawboning — and perhaps most important — was, of course, Ben Bernanke. The US$ had declined 18% and word began to spread that Ben may not be reappointed. So Ben and his cohorts began to talk about tightening policy in all of its forms. I stress the word, talk, as no actions have been taken to reduce liquidity.

List of the events:

The State of the Union address

Ben Bernanke’s Reappointment

The FOMC meeting (for months now the US$ has rallied in front of FOMC events)

The Geithner grilling on Capitol Hill

All of the above happened in the same week, the last in Jan., and one can argue all participants appreciated the US$ appreciation. Coincidence? We think not.

That was then, this is now…

Bearish US$ developments as of Feb. 1:

-2010 Budget released: After parsing the numbers the increase in spending looks real, the “savings” as usual appear dubious. Evidence the insanity below:

The Wall Street Journal reports President Obama will propose on Monday a $3.8 trln budget for fiscal 2011 that projects the deficit will shoot up to a record $1.6 trln this year, but would push the red ink down to about $700 bln, or 4% of the gross domestic product, by 2013, according to congressional aides. The deficit for the current fiscal year, which ends on Sept. 30, would eclipse last year’s $1.4 trln deficit, in part due to new spending on a proposed jobs package. The president also wants $25 bln for cash-strapped state governments, mainly to offset their funding of the Medicaid health program for the poor. To get the deficit down by the middle of the decade, Mr. Obama will be relying on some cuts that have previously been proposed without success, on cooperation from a wary Congress and on a yet-to-be set up debt commission to suggest politically difficult choices.

Reuters.com reports the White House budget proposal released on Monday assumes the U.S. economy is heading for a six-year run of above-average economic growth with no sign of a worrisome spike in inflation or interest rates. The forecasts underlying President Barack Obama’s budget plan show real gross domestic product rising 2.7 percent this year, which is largely in line with private forecasts. Beginning in 2011, the White House’s projections diverge. It expects six consecutive years of strong growth ranging from 3.2 percent to 4.3 percent — well above what most economists consider the longer-term trend of around 2.6 percent. The last time the economy saw a similar streak of strong growth was in the late 1990s, during the dot-com boom. Obama has said both that expansion and the housing-powered growth in the mid-2000s were bubble-driven, and he wants the next expansion phase to rest on sturdier pillars. If the White House is assuming stronger economic growth, that implies bigger tax revenues and a smaller budget gap. The proposal shows the deficit shrinking to just under 4 percent of GDP by 2014, from an estimated 10.6 percent this year.

-Senate votes 60-39 to increase US debt ceiling by $1.9 trillion – DJ (This vote was delayed in Dec. adding to the US$ rally at that time)

-Personal Consumption and Income Weaken

-Construction Spending Dips in December

I will leave you with the following quote from White House Economic Advisor Romer, “ …strong GDP forecasts included in the budget are based on a history of growth after recessions.”

To recap, the “strong” GDP numbers carried in the budget are the primary source of deficit reduction going forward.  Does anyone else see the Lewis Carroll nature of  the 2010 budget, or am I just a madhatter? Romer says, “history of growth after recessions.” This assumption would imply we have just experienced a normal recession but we all know that to be untrue. We can all agree a credit crisis of epic proportions led to a real estate collapse that has defied all expectation. These events were not normal or historic, hence the growth of GDP going forward should not be normal either.  Previous “normal” recessions were preceded by sharply rising interest rates. “Normal” recoveries were preceded by sharply declining interest rates.  According to Romer’s logic the Fed will need to take interest rates substantially below zero to foster a “normal” recovery. Pay close attention to the appearance of President Obama during his next speech and see if he looks like a Cheshire Cat.

Is it any wonder the price of Gold jumped 4.2% in the two days following the budget release?

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The following is from www.zerohedge.com.  This piece is so profound that a reprint is required:

The SEC passes regulation that only STRENGTHENS the case to own Gold

Suspending Money Market Redemptions Is Now Legal; SEC Approves New Money Market Regulation In 4-1 Vote…

…Well, in a nearly unanimous vote, Money Market Funds now have the ability to suspend redemptions, courtesy of the SEC’s just passed 4-1 vote. This explains the negative rate on bills: at this point, should there be another meltdown, money market investors will not, repeat not, be able to withdraw their money purely on the whim of Mary Schapiro. As the SEC noted: “We understand that suspending redemptions may impose hardships on investors who rely on their ability to redeem shares.” Too bad investors’ hardships considerations ended up being completely irrelevant.

Anyone who sees this regulation and feels safe leaving their money in money market funds needs to have their head examined. The “intent” is to prevent a “run” on money market funds when the next crisis hits. Essentially the passage of that regulation signals the high probability of such a crisis happening.

As alluded to in the post, the rate on 1-month T-bills has gone negative today. Think about what this means. When a big investor is willing to invest short term money and have returned less money than was invested just 30 days ago, it tells us that the investor is more concerned about getting his money back than he is about making money on his money. The investor is essentially paying a small fee to insure that his cash is returned with little loss (30-day T-bills would be considered riskless since the Gov’t can print money to honor the claim). Think about the signal from big investors that is being given here about the perception of systemic risk and the probability of systemic failure. The rate on 30-day bills went negative for quite some time before the collapse of Lehman and AIG.

This phenomenon only strengthens the case that investors should be putting as much as they can into gold and silver as vehicles for protecting and preserving wealth. When you own gold, you are not subjected to, and victimized by, the bad decisions and moral hazards being implemented by our policymakers, many of whom are puppets for the big banks who fund their positions of leadership (see today’s Congressional inquisition of Geithner and Paulson). When you own physical gold in your own possession (or a trusted custodian), your investment does not have any risk of counterparty claim AND you have no Government/SEC restrictions placed on your investment, like the SEC regulation just passed.

I will end with a quote from none other than the king of fiat money, Alan Greenspan, who said on September 9th, 2009: “gold still holds reign over the financial system as the ultimate source of payment.” Keep this in mind when you get your next investment statement from your broker or advisor.

As Gary and I discuss this issue another thought occurs that bares scrutiny.  All are aware of the massive debt load this country sags under.  The Fed has made it clear rates will remain low for an extended period.  However, other methods are required to support the Treasury bond market and effectively keep rates from rising when worldwide ability to support said debt becomes increasingly dubious.  We pose the question:  Are the rule changes on the $3+trillion money market business designed to force conservative money directly into treasuries? Will we see in details of future treasury auctions an increase in the amount purchased by “households” ?

The answers to these questions are unpleasant to ponder and only time will reveal the secrets.  While your mind churns, read the next story and see how it fits into the puzzle.

SEC says more changes for money-market funds – WSJ

WSJ reports money-market funds could be forced to pay out less interest under new federal rules designed to make them sturdier. With memories still raw from the 2008 meltdown of Reserve Primary Fund, the SEC released rules on Wednesday that require funds to hold more liquid and higher-quality assets and disclose the value of their assets per share more frequently. The trade-off: These safeguards also will put pressure on yields that are already near zero. The changes likely will reduce yields by about 0.10 percentage point, said Pete Crane, president of Crane Data. This isn’t good news for money-fund sponsors already suffering from redemptions because of their low rates. Investors pulled about $540 billion out of money-market mutual funds last year, bringing assets to $3.3 trillion, according to Crane.

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The volatility of precious metals prices will continue to astound. For those requiring a courage boost, I offer the following information as succor…

The Precious Metals market is minuscule - Matterhorn Asset Management
The graph below shows how small the gold and silver industries and markets are in relation to major US corporations and to total world financial assets. The market capitalisation of the silver industry is only $ 9 billion and of the gold industry $ 200 B whilst Microsoft is valued at $250 B and Exxon 350 B.

Both the silver and gold industries as well as the physical markets are so small that any increase in demand is likely to drive prices very substantially higher.

Zerohedge further exposes the BLS Friday jobs report as a worthless…

Even as the BLS and the administration are trying to cover up the real state of unemployment affairs using assorted semantic gimmicks of just what it means to be unemployed, and as companies provide adjusted EPS numbers, while actual earnings continue to collapse, the true barometer of spending, provided by the Financial Management Service, tax withholdings (net of refunds), continues to paint the truest picture of just what is really happening with both America’s consumer and the corporate world….

…On a rolling 12 month basis, individual tax withheld has dropped by nearly 8% YoY, from $1.42 trillion to $1.31 trillion, while company witholdings are down a whalloping 64%, from $274 billion to just under $100 billion! Read More…

Of course, the Obama administration is aware of the true nature of the unemployment problem…

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama called for a major new burst of federal spending Tuesday, perhaps $150 billion or more, aiming to jolt the wobbly economy into a stronger recovery and reduce painfully persistent double-digit unemployment. Read More…

Geithner said to be seeking TARP extension until next October -

Bloomberg.com reports Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner plans to tell Congress that the Obama administration will extend the $700 billion financial-rescue program until next October, according to people familiar with the matter. While the Troubled Asset Relief Program expires on Dec. 31, Geithner can extend it by notifying Congress. A letter notifying Congress of the extension could come as soon as today, said the people, who declined to be identified. Andrew Williams, a Treasury Department spokesman, declined to comment. The TARP, passed in October 2008 to prevent a collapse of the financial system, has drawn criticism from Congressional opponents of taxpayer-funded bailouts of banks including Citigroup Inc. The Obama administration, preparing the ground for an extension, has emphasized that the program may also be used to aid homeowners and small companies.

Both actions above are US$ bearish, precious metals bullish. Add to the mix the recent zero-rate U.S. Treasury auction and you can see why our Gold and Silver investment thesis remains intact…

U.S. Treasury zero-rate auction matches record low
WASHINGTON, Dec 8 (Reuters) – The 0.000 percent high yield on the U.S. Treasury’s four-week bill auction on Tuesday matches the lowest on record for the security, the Treasury’s Bureau of the Public Debt said.

The Treasury’s auction of $29 billion in four-week bills at a strong 5.33 bid-to-cover ratio marks only the fourth time that the security was sold at a zero rate. The other three zero-rate auctions occurred in December 2008, near the height of the financial crisis.

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