Gary Dorsch, editor of Global Money Trends magazine, sums up the “important” jobs news released last Friday….

…And 14-months after losing 763,000-jobs in January 2009, US-payrolls, a key driver for the bond and stock markets, rose in March for only the third time since recession struck in late 2007 as the private sector stepped up hiring at the fastest pace in almost three years. Employers added 162,000 jobs last month, leaving the U-3 unemployment rate steady at 9.7% for the third straight month. About 48,000 temporary workers for the decennial census were hired last month, while private payrolls jumped 123,000, the highest since May 2007. Private payrolls rose 8,000 in February, the Labor apparatchiks reported.

Despite the sharp turnaround in employment last month, weaknesses still remain. A broader measure of unemployment, the U-6 jobless rate, that includes the number of workers marginally attached to the labor force and those working part time rather than full-time, edged up to 16.9% from 16.8% in February. What’s hidden from the masses however, is that the new jobs created pay about 25% less than those that were previously wiped-out, and in many cases, benefits have been dropped.

So, as usual, ‘all hail the headline number, ignore reality and push the equity markets higher’ is the chorus of today.  In the midst of all this job creating excitement should I even bother publishing stories that offer perspective?…

Commercial bankruptcies increase – WSJ WSJ reports the total number of companies filing for bankruptcy in the U.S. jumped by more than 20% in March over the previous month, as business failures in the first quarter outpaced last year’s total. The total number of commercial bankruptcy filings hit 8,208 in March, a sharp rise from February’s total of 6,655, according to new data from Automated Access to Court Electronic Records. March’s total brings the total number of commercial bankruptcies to 21,453 so far this year, almost 1,000 more than the total for the first quarter of 2009, a breakout year for business filings. Jack Williams, a bankruptcy law professor at Georgia State University, said he expects the rising trend to continue through the second quarter despite signs of an improving economy. “There’s no indication whatsoever that the trend is slowing,” Mr. Williams said. “The pace is picking up…and that was off of what was a major filing year in 2009.”

Office vacancy rate hits 16-year high – Reuters Reuters reports U.S. office vacancy rate in the first quarter reached its highest level in 16 years, but the decline in rents eased and crept closer to stabilization, according to a report by real estate research firm Reis Inc. The U.S. office vacancy rate rose to 17.2%, a level unseen since 1994, as the market lost about 11.6 mln net square feet of occupied space during the first quarter, according to the report released on Monday. The U.S. vacancy rate inched up 0.2% from a quarter earlier and was 2% higher than a year ago…The U.S. office vacancy rate hit a cyclical low of 12.5% in the third quarter 2007. Rental rates fell an average of 0.8% in the first quarter, a less steep decline that seen last year. Asking rent fell 4.2% from a year earlier. Factoring months of free rent and landlord contributions to space improvements for each tenant, effective rent was down 7.4% from a year earlier.

…Unfortunately, I find it impossible to create a disingenuous post. As the bandwagon rolls by the desire to jump aboard, at times, can be overwhelming.  However, I have dedicated my missives to “keeping it real” and I will continue to do so no matter how obstreperous the chorus.

Tags: commercial bankruptcies, commercial real estate, jobs, office vacancy, rent, unemloyment, US payrolls

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The equity markets dropped on average 1.5% Monday and this morning another 1.5% decline is underway.  I mentioned, in A Review of the RCM Investment Strategy, the defensive posture we at RCM have taken. I said, “We have deployed our assets in a manner we feel most appropriate for the environment we are experiencing.”

The following news items should help illustrate what was meant when I wrote, “…the environment we are experiencing.”….

Lending falls at epic pace – WSJ

WSJ reports U.S. banks posted last year their sharpest decline in lending since 1942, suggesting that the industry’s continued slide is making it harder for the economy to recover. While top-tier banks are recovering at a faster clip, the rest of the industry is still suffering, according to a quarterly report from the FDIC. Banks fighting for survival, especially those plagued by losses on commercial real estate, are less willing to extend loans, siphoning credit from businesses and consumers. Besides registering their biggest full-year decline in total loans outstanding in 67 years, U.S. banks set a number of grim milestones. According to the FDIC, the number of U.S. banks at risk of failing hit a 16-year high at 702. More than 5% of all loans were at least three months past due, the highest level recorded in the 26 years the data have been collected. And the problems are expected to last through 2010. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said banks are “bumping along the bottom of the credit cycle” and that the number of bank failures in 2010 will likely eclipse the 140 recorded last year.

If “Banks fighting for survival, especially those plagued by losses on commercial real estate, are less willing to extend loans” then what do you think will happen when the following development gains steam?….

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Just when they thought the worst of the mortgage crisis was behind them, billions of dollars in bad loans from the debacle may be rising from the dead and creeping back on the balance sheets of the largest U.S. banks.

Big lenders including Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo may be forced to repurchase troubled home loans from insurers and mortgage-finance giants like Freddie Mac that had agreed to take on risks associated with those assets during the real estate boom.

The banks are setting aside more reserves to cover the potential costs of such repurchases, cutting into earnings….

Read More…

Of course, we can spend all day debating the reasons for banks’ lack of desire to lend, but the real crux of the issue remains the employment picture. The American people, due in large part to the horrible jobs market, are reigning in spending hence needing less credit….

Mass Layoffs Surge In January, Highest Since July 2009

The BLS has reported Mass Layoff Statistics for January 2010 – the result is plain ugly, and kills any hope for sustained improvement in unemployment data. Not seasonally adjusted Mass Layoff Events (defined as at least 50 persons being laid off from a single employer) surged in January to 2,860, from 2,310 in January, from a 12 month low of 1,371 in September 2009. This is the biggest monthly surge since July when the Mass Layoff Events hit a 12 month high of 3,054. In terms of actual workers, January saw 278,679 initially laid off people. The deterioration was mirrored in the much less credible seasonally adjusted data. Obviously companies were waiting for the end of the year to dump as many people as they could.

ECONX Initial Claims Report Suggests a Much Weaker Labor Sector

The initial claims data weakened for the week ending Feb. 20 as the claims figure increased from 474,000 to 496,000. The consensus expected claims to decline to 460,000. Many analysts, including us, believed that inclement weather conditions across the U.S. would prevent many workers from filing new claims. If this scenario is true, then the actual initial claims figure would be much closer to 550,000… Continuing claims rose a modest 6,000 to 4.617 mln for the week ending Feb. 13. The figure for the week ending Feb. 6 was revised up from 4.570 mln, and the consensus expected claims to remain at that previous level… The job creation data looks to be minimal. The unadjusted claims data from Feb. 6 was down by 85,842 claims while the emergency benefits figure declined 317,933 claims. The decline in original claims is mostly due to workers running out of benefits and it seems the weather made it difficult to process extended benefit applications.

Meanwhile, the health of the credit markets remains the number one issue facing the equity markets today.  You may recall my Feb. 18th post ‘Credit Markets Warning Signal, Foreign Demand for US Treasury Falls ‘ in which I outlined the very real possibility that European credit constriction was migrating across the pond. Well, the following stories add credibility to that concern…

Greek Treasuries Pancake As Bond Vigilantes Chant Death Chorus

Ah, curve pancaking – better known in bond parlance as the death rattle. The Greek 4 Year GGB just traded wider of the 15 Year at a spread of -4bps (yup, negative). This, to continue the parlance lesson, means the bond vigilantes are now pretty sure how the Greek situation will play out. Oh, and Greece, all the best with that €5 billion10 year bond issuance. The 1 Year spot his exploded from just over 200 bps on January 1, to just under 5%, a rout for all short-term GGB holders. We are anxiously awaiting RBS’ rebuttal.

Read More…  

California postpones bond sale – WSJ

California One Step Closer To Insolvency After State Cancels $2 Billion General Obligation Bond Sale

Five days ago a great white hope appeared for the great bankrupt Golden State (Baa1/A-), in the form of $2 billion in GO bonds, which were supposed to be promptly syndicated via underwriters JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. This would have been the first bond sale for California since November: a critical milestone as the state creeps ever closer to a full-on default. Unfortunately, the creeping just turned into a casual jog after Jane Wells (@janewells) just tweeted that California has cancelled its bond sale “after legislature fails to approve cash management flexibility bill [the] Treasurer said he needed to attract investors.”And seriously, did California think it would succeed where so many other high yield issuers have recently failed?

Read More…

I will rest my case today with a request to review my post titled ‘Looming Defaults and the Effect on Currencies, US$ vs. Euro’.  In this post I describe the competitive devaluation process unfolding and the similarities between Greece and California.

Tags: bad loans, California, commercial real estate, credit markets, euro, FDIC, Greece, initial jobless claims, Treasury, unemployment, US Treasury, US$

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Three Tips to Help You Avoid Stepping Face First into Real Estate Risk 

Limiting risk in real-estate investments substantially increases your chances of earning high returns.  A solid risk assessment prevents you from getting burned, losing your initial investment or much worse. Investors pick real estate for three main reasons: Earn positive cash flow, take advantage of tax benefits or gain the satisfaction of impacting the lives of others. No matter which combination of these reasons attracted you to the idea of investing in real estate, the following three tips can help you reduce risk and maximize your benefits.

1. The first tip is simple, but often disregarded: Avoid speculation. In my book, “Standing in the Rain,” I describe speculation as “financial Russian roulette.” The odds can appear to be in your favor and the risk can often be downplayed in relation to the potential reward. Investors are seduced by speculation. They succumb to hearsay and promises of quick returns with little effort.  Speculation is a short-term investment ploy and it minimizes real estate’s incredible potential as a long-term investment.  Long-term investors look to retain their real-estate assets despite modest market fluctuations, short-term speculative investors become finicky when their asset does anything besides rise in value. Speculation is usually fueled by misinformation, greed or pseudo demand, and it does not have its place in the real-estate market. Forget about all things “get rich quick.” Wise real-estate investing requires thorough due diligence and I suggest you never let anyone convince you otherwise.
2. Do your best to ensure positive cash flow. Being ill-prepared for a property that swallows cash every month can quickly reduce the amount of capital you have to work. Remember, cash is king, queen, prince and duke of Real Estate City. When possible, consider the benefits of a substantial down payment.  It gives you instant equity, helps reduce your interest rate and lowers your monthly payments.  Predicting constant appreciation is never easy. But, with experience or the assistance of a seasoned professional, you can take the necessary steps in an educated attempt to ensure positive cash flow. Lack of due diligence places a painful strain on your cash flow and forces you to sell your investment property before the benefits are realized.
3. Narrow your focus. Which is the better choice for you, commercial or residential real estate?  Investing in real estate carries a great potential for creating substantial wealth. Such wealth rarely comes without making a number of difficult decisions. Before investing, consider your options. Ask yourself if you are qualified, or even willing, to handle evictions, time management, repairs, reinvesting money back into the property, documentation and necessary inspections. Real estate can be mostly “hands off.” You can hire professionals to handle every part of the process, but the appeal of real-estate investing is often its “hands-on” nature. Narrowing your focus and choosing which type of real estate you want to invest in requires your careful consideration.

In “Real Estate Risk and Retirement Planning Part One,” I have included a section that details different options you have when investing in real estate. Watch for “Real Estate Risk and Retirement Planning Part Two” it in the next few weeks.  I will discuss market trends and weeding through cumbersome rules and regulations. 

All My Best,

Thomas J. Powell

To read more, click here

Tags: capital, commercial real estate, documentation, due diligence, economics, ELP Capital, evictions, foreclosure, investment advice, ira, land lord, las vegas, long-term investments, markets, necessary inspection, Nevada real estate, options, property, Real estate, reinvesting money, reno, repairs, residential real estate, ria, speculation, strategy, thomas powell, time management, TIPS

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Residential Real Estate

 There are dozens of reasons why the residential real estate market bubbled and exploded, causing the ensuing credit crisis and economic strife. The popularity of loans requiring no documentation, the easy access to sub-prime loans and the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates low all intertwined to fuel the housing crisis. The housing bubble was also inflated by Wall Street’s ability to package and sell mortgages in large pools. Now, after struggling to repair the housing market for more than a year, we are seeing improvements that are unveiling extraordinary investment opportunities in residential real estate. 

It appears we have hit the bottom of the housing market trough. Housing prices found some stabilization; although the prices are still close to the lowest they have been all decade. But, the collapse took years to build and expecting a complete turnaround in 2009 is unrealistic. The real promise in housing is in the future. Getting your money into the market now is optimal because of low prices and reasonable mortgage rates. Plus, there will continue to be tax relief with the recent Obama-endorsed home-buyers’ tax credit extension—which is planned to be available for repeat buyers who have lived in their prior residence for at least five years. 

The United States should see a gradual increase in home sales throughout 2010, but the residential market will most likely not witness a return to “normalcy” until 2011. According to Steve Bergsman, author of “After the Fall, Opportunities and Strategies for Real Estate Investing in the Coming Decade,” “When a bubble market bursts, left behind is a lot of carnage and it takes about three years for the markets just to get a handle on the mess.”[1] 

The three-year anniversary of the housing collapse is fast approaching and a number of high-profile reports have been published this month that suggest the residential housing market is already improving. The Case-Shiller index, which tracks variations in the values of houses in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas, showed an increase of 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2009. In the first quarter it was down 7.9 percent. Two reports released by the Commerce Department last week suggest that while the overall economy continues on a wobbly path toward recovery, the housing industry is experiencing a number of positive signs. For example, “The supply of new homes was at 7.5 months in September, down from 9.5 months in May.”[2] 

While residential inventory appears to be slimming, foreclosure rates continue to mount in multiple areas across the country. With a significant number of Option ARMs set to reset over the next several months, many cities will continue to experience record-setting foreclosure levels.  However, foreclosures are increasing in different cities than those affected in the last quarters of 2008. Rates appear to be easing in the cities that were hit hardest by the housing collapse and rising in major metro areas in other states. This suggests that the cities previously overrun with foreclosures have found ways to combat the problem and are gradually making progress. 

A continuing stream of foreclosures may keep the residential inventory plump, and prices could remain stable over the next couple quarters. But, as inventory shrinks, so too will the abundance of quality investment opportunities. With the residential real estate market now hovering around the bottom, now is the right time to invest. 

Commercial Real Estate: No Reason to Panic

 While it appears that we have already witnessed the worst of the residential real-estate collapse, we are preparing for the brunt of the crash in commercial real estate. The commercial real-estate industry has taken the place of residential real estate as the breeding ground for widespread fear. Daily reports suggest the commercial real estate storm will be more severe than the one that struck residential housing. Instead of causing another shipwreck, our economy’s commercial woes may prove to be more of an anchor that puts an imposing drag on our recovery. 

The combination of job losses, store closings, rising vacancies and drastic cost-cutting measures puts commercial real estate in a serious bind. However, knowing their mortgages will soon come due or reset, owners and managers of office buildings, shopping centers, hotels and apartment complexes have had ample time to prepare for upcoming obstacles. 

Owners of commercial real estate are not backed into a corner. Banks prefer options that keep mortgage payments flowing. Therefore, banks are willing to work with borrowers to find solutions, even though bundled commercial mortgages will add to the difficulty of negotiations. Securing loan payments is not entirely the responsibility of banks or those who hold investments in pools of bundled loans. The owners of commercial buildings originally took on the responsibility and many of them are actively working to find solutions to keep their properties operating. Many property owners will continue to make their payments either because they have adapted their strategies to fit the difficult times, or because they have explored creative ways to bring in extra income. Of course, some number of defaults will be inevitable. Some of those property owners who are unable to acquire loan restructuring or extensions will view a loan default as their best option. 

As with the residential real estate debacle, the government is sure to intervene in an attempt to keep our economy from falling into another dark hole. For example, the already-in-place Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) supports the issuance of asset-backed securities in order to help small businesses meet their credit needs. The TALF is one of a handful of sluggish government efforts that was created to help provide a crutch for the commercial real-estate industry. 

Commercial real estate will continue to tug on recovery efforts, but it is not likely to cause the amount of damage we witnessed during the residential collapse. The time to invest is not when everyone shows interest in an asset. A staple to wise investing has always been buying low and selling high. The commercial real estate market has produced sound investments in the past and will once again flourish. Getting into the market in times of success is more costly, the opportunities are scarcer and the rewards are not as fruitful. The best time to invest is when the masses are fearful, and the masses are easily spooked by commercial real estate right now. 

The Benefits of Hiring Professionals

As is the case when taking on any money-making venture, the waters are difficult to navigate alone. We all want to make investments that are conducive to both our current financial situation and our future goals. Investing with a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) helps eliminate the series of headaches that come with making sound investment decisions.

Hiring a RIA has a number of benefits. For instance, a RIA can take on the following responsibilities:

• Provide objective investment and financial advice
• Set achievable financial and personal goals
• Take into account all of the factors that influence your current financial situation (your assets, liabilities, income, insurance, taxes, etc.) and provide a comprehensive analysis of where improvements can be made. Also, this helps to guide your investment plans and retirement goals
• Provide consistent investment consultation based on your fluctuating savings, investment selections and asset allocation

Before hiring a RIA, you should also be able to answer the following questions:

• What services do you need? Can your potential RIA deliver these services or are there any limitations on what they can deliver?
• What experience does the RIA have in dealing with investors in your situation?
• Has the RIA ever been disciplined by a government regulator for unethical behavior?
• What services are you paying for and how much do those services cost?
• How does the RIA plan on getting paid and are you comfortable with this payment method?
• RIAs are required to register with either the SEC or their state securities agency, depending on their size. It is imperative to ask for proof of their registration

There are a number of professionals who can provide guidance for your investment strategies. Hiring a RIA can help to take the frustration out of the investment process and help you avoid many of the common roadblocks. The true value of a RIA is their ability to thoroughly understand your overall financial goals and provide professional investment advice that is consistent with those goals.

All My Best,

Thomas J. Powell

[2] See http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125673286433612857.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_realestate

Tags: banks, Case-Schiller, commercial real estate, Credit, economics, economy, ELP Capital, Federal Reserve, Finance, financial, Financial Future, foreclosures, homebuyer tax credit, invest, loans, normalcy, obama, Real estate, real estate assets, registered investment advisor, residential real estate, Retirement, ria, Standing In The Rain, The Powell Perspective, Thomas J. Powell

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              As our economy slowly recovers, many investors are concerned with recouping the money they lost during the crisis. Pulling your funds out of investments all together will do nothing to bulk up your savings, while sinking your money into risky funds can do further damage. So, with black-and-white options not offering solutions, where can investors put their money to work?

Many investors are turning to investments that they feel are safe, such as bank CDs or money market mutual funds. The problem with these “safe havens” lies in the low returns. “The average money market fund yields .05 percent, or $5 on a $10,000 deposit.” With rates of return this low, these investments may not be able to keep up with inflation, let alone fill the gaps left by the losses experienced over the last 24 months.

Another option is to do nothing. Yvon Chouinard, founder of the Patagonia sports outlets, says, “There’s no difference between a pessimist who says, ‘Oh it’s hopeless, so don’t bother doing anything’ and an optimist who says, ‘Don’t bother doing anything, it’s going to turn out fine anyway.’ Either way, nothing happens.” The idea of holding on to your portfolio “as is” and wishing for the stocks you currently hold to rebound may work in some instances. But, if time turns out to be your enemy, your retirement years will be funded only by the amount you currently have, minus the effects of inflation.

As investors actively search for ways to re-energize their portfolios, many are returning to real estate. The real-estate market is hovering around the bottom, interest rates remain near record lows and a large inventory gives buyers an abundance of options. On the residential side, many foreclosures and bank-owned properties can now be purchased for a fraction of their value. The same opportunities are becoming available in commercial real estate as owners are unable to pay off or refinance their loans.

As I have mentioned before, real estate can help your portfolio win the battle over inflation. Real estate’s value will return over the next couple of years. When it does, those who invested now will not only recoup their losses, but they will also have the possibility of dramatically increasing their portfolio’s value.

Shaking Our Stone Age Tendencies

Letting our emotions dictate our investment decisions is a risky behavior. Out of instinct, we all get emotional when we earn or lose money. It is in our wiring to feel connected with the money we have accumulated. We tend to panic when our money is in jeopardy.

We make a connection between money and safety. Psychology suggests that we are programmed to protect our safety the same way our ancient ancestors were. Even though we encounter vastly different problems than our ancestors did, we still attempt to solve them in the same way. Moving with the herd used to be crucial to staying alive. Today however, moving with a herd of investors can weaken your portfolio. Pushing money into an investment simply because the majority of others are is usually the exact opposite of what you should be doing.

In the same vein as the herd behavior, is our tendency to make investment decisions based on past success. Just because a strategy worked in the past does not necessarily mean it will work in the present. Markets change dramatically from week to week. Strategies you used in the Dotcom boom of the late nineties may lead to an unpleasant outcome in today’s market. Sticking to market fundamentals is one thing, but taking on blind risk a second time because it worked out the first, is nothing more than a gamble. It is the same concept behind betting on red because the roulette ball fell in a red pocket the previous spin. No matter what your past performance, prudent due diligence is always necessary to gauge the current market trends, analyze risk and make sound investment decisions.

I have encountered a number of studies that suggest we remember the bitter feeling of losing money more acutely than the feelings we have when we earn the same amount in an investment. A few lousy investment decisions and an investor can be turned off indefinitely. It is important to learn from our mistakes and use the knowledge to our advantage. Our emotions can lead us to make decisions that, in hindsight, are horrible ideas. A bad decision is bad no matter what the outcome. Making money out of an emotional decision is lucky, but the decision itself was still the wrong one.

There is no way to completely escape our tendencies to invest based on emotion. But, by being aware of the negative impact our emotions have on our investment decisions, we can limit their influence. Wise approaches such as hiring investment professionals, practicing prudent due diligence and planning sound exit strategies can all help us become better investors.

Bank Closures v. the FDIC

Last week, federal regulators seized seven more banks- three in Florida and one each in Georgia, Minnesota, Illinois and Wisconsin. The bank failures brought the year’s total to 106, which is the most since the savings and loan debacle brought about 181 failures in 1992.  Plus, with 416 banks on the FDIC’s watch list, the number of bank failures is expected to rise before the end of the year. With bank closures quickly absorbing millions of dollars from the FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund, is it possible that our savings accounts are realistically still protected?

The FDIC operates like a basic insurance policy, except banks are the customers instead of individuals or groups of individuals. Banks pay insurance premiums to the FDIC in exchange for its commitment to protect their depositors’ money. In the late 1920s, when banks closed at an alarming rate, depositors had no protection from bank failures. Between 1929 and 1933, banks lost an estimated $1.3 billion of their customers’ money. Today, the FDIC protects several trillion dollars worth of deposits. But as of June, it only had $10.4 billion in its deposit insurance fund—down from about $45 billion earlier this year.

The FDIC’s reserves have quickly depleted as the cost of bank failures outpace the fees the corporation collects. Last month, as bank closures continued to mount, the FDIC’s board of directors considered four ways to bulk up the insurance fund. The options considered were: borrow from healthy banks, borrow from the treasury, levy a special fee on banks or collect regular premiums early.

Borrowing from healthy banks would reduce the amount of money available to the private sector. Borrowing from the Treasury could send the wrong message to the public and have adverse effects on the banking industry. Levying a special fee on banks could push those on the edge into failure. The last option, albeit not particularly attractive either, is to collect regular premiums early. Deciding to follow through with this option, the FDIC stated it “adopted a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that would require insured institutions to prepay their estimated quarterly risk-based assessments for the fourth quarter of 2009 and for all of 2010, 2011 and 2012.” The press release indicated that the FDIC estimates prepayments will total approximately $45 billion.

Once approved, the proposed prepayments could give banks a bill for three years of premiums by the end of this year. While the requirement would put banks in a tough situation, the FDIC does not seem to think banks will find it too cumbersome. The FDIC believes that “the banking industry has substantial liquidity to prepay assessments.” As stated in the press release, “As of June 30, FDIC-insured institutions held more than $1.3 trillion in liquid balances, or 22 percent more than they did a year ago.”

The FDIC does have the capability to protect our deposits. However, initiatives that charge banks three years’ worth of premiums at once could help the FDIC weather an onslaught of bank closures without requiring the government to print more money…I hope. 

All My Best,

Thomas J. Powell

Tags: asset management, Bank Failure, Billion, CD, commercial real estate, crisis, Dotcom boom, ELP Capital, FDIC, herd behavior, high return, Inflation, insurance, insured institution, invest based on emotion, low return, Patagonia, prepayments, Real estate, registered advisor, residential real estate, risky behavior, Thomas J. Powell, thomas powell, tom powell, Trillion, Yvon Chouinard

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More economic numbers out this morning that suggest a continuation of the status quo.

The Fed can point to the PPI numbers and pretend there is no inflation…

September Core PPI Y/Y +1.8% vs +2.0% consensus, prior +2.3%

September PPI Y/Y -4.8% vs -4.3% consensus

…So rates can remain low to help the listless housing market…

September Housing Starts 590K vs 610K consensus, prior revised to 587K from 598K

September Building Permits 573K vs 595K consensus, prior revised to 580K from 579K

Somehow, all this data results in a U.S.$ rally, T-bond advance (rate decline) and an equity market sell off. I would expect this counter trend move to be short lived. In fact, there have been some developments regarding the U.S.$ that should concern any U.S. $ optimist.

BEIJING, October 14 (RIA Novosti) – Russia is ready to consider using the Russian and Chinese national currencies instead of the dollar in bilateral oil and gas dealings, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.The premier, currently on a visit to Beijing, said a final decision on the issue can only be made after a thorough expert analysis.”Yesterday, energy companies, in particular Gazprom, raised the question of using the national currency. We are ready to examine the possibility of selling energy resources for rubles, but our Chinese partners need rubles for that. We are also ready to sell for yuans,” Putin said. MORE…

A possible accelerant about to be poured onto the pile of burning U.S.$s may have a UK label. The real estate market in the UK appears to be heating up. Prices for both residential and commercial properties in London are hitting records. If this recovery turns into a trend that moves across the channel to the rest of Western Europe then Ben and Pinocchio could have a real problem.

The U.S. $ carry trade will gain steam if a European economic recovery/inflation outpaces the U.S. and leads to rate increases much like in Austraila (see Oct. 7th post). A lagging real estate market here in the U.S. will make it difficult for Ben to raise rates. Meanwhile, Pinocchio (Geithner) will continue to express the desire for a strong $ as his nose grows…

London Agents ‘Sold Out’ as Home Asking Prices Jump to Record Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) — London home sellers raised asking prices to a record high this month and led gains across the U.K. as the shortage of properties for sale intensified, Rightmove Plc said. MORE…

UK property undergoes dramatic recovery - FT
FT reports the UK commercial property market delivered the highest monthly price growth for more than three years in September, capping a remarkable comeback for a sector that looked to have been wiped out only a matter of months ago. Investors are now chasing commercial property and some are complaining that the market has become too hot again. The switch in sentiment has been tangible as investors look to take advantage of a slump that wiped off about 45% from prices from the peak in 2007 by the beginning of the summer. The recovery has been building since, with IPD, the benchmark index, rising 1.1% for September, the highest since June 2006

Tags: China, commercial real estate, Geithner, Inflation, ppi, renewable energy, residential real estate, Russia, UK

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Tags: alcoa, australia's central bank, commercial real estate, Fed, Geithner, hyperinflation, Inflation, obama, stagflation, Stimulus, US$

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Welcome to Black Gold the HedgeCo blog site about Energy and investing operated by logi Energy.  logi Energy is an investment management team that invests in the oil and gas sector in equities, options, futures, as well as on and off shore oil and gas fields and wells.  In this premier post, I’d like to tell you who we are and what we believe.  In other posts, other team members from logi Energy will provide detail and clarity to my mere words.  The basis of our investment approach is that peak oil has occurred in the world.  The world will never produce as much oil as it did in 2008 – ever again -.  Exploration has been conducted for over 130 years and every jungle, every desert, every mountain range, every rolling plain and every ocean site with potential to produce has been reviewed to identify where oil is.  As we look back at what the world has found over the decades, we now know that we’ve never found as much oil as we did in the 1960s.  Every decade since, we have discovered less and less oil. We are on track this decade to discover approximately 20% of what was discovered in the 1960s.  Today we use technology so sophisticated, it takes a PhD to refine the mathematics of the software processing the imagery. Complex engineering and deep mathematics are a hallmark of the oil industry.  Long gone are the days when geologists would lick the rocks taken from wells to identify pay zones for oil and gas.  We have technologies for finding, drilling, producing and improving oil production that allow us to very quickly identify opportunities and exploit them at a rate faster than we’ve ever been able to do.  Field after field, major region after major region, we have been applying these technologies to stretch out production well beyond original predictions.  These days our predictions are getting better and we are finding that even with the best of technology and nearly unlimited funding, we can’t stop major regions from peaking.  The latest unconstrained use of technology and money was the North Sea.  With no limitations in drilling or technology, it peaked in 1999 and today produces 70% of what it produced just 10 years ago.  The world is using oil at prolific rates.  Today we use six times the oil we used in 1950.  It is the most magical fluid in the world. One gallon of gasoline has the energy content of a man week of hard labor. Don’t believe me?  Assuming you get 32 miles per gallon on the highway like I do, how long would it take you to push your car 32 miles? A week? Longer?  Even more difficult, where could you get a week of hard labor for $2.85?  You can’t get that anywhere in the world.  The Egyptians used slaves to build their pyramids; the modern world uses liquid hydrocarbons. Some of us use our oil in more efficient ways than others. For the last 5 years, the third world citizen driving their moped has been impervious to price changes that have caused the economies of the OECD to cave in.  The summer of 2008 was the first of many price oscillations we will experience in the post Peak Oil world.  Prices will ascend until people can no longer afford the commodity, the demand dries up and prices drop letting the market rush back to the lower prices.  If it behaves like most other limited commodities, we can expect these oscillations to continue until the world transitions to other forms of energy for transportation.  Now knowing why and when the oscillations occur is our full time effort.  Check out our website at www.logipeakoil.com or contact us for details on how we do this.

BLACK GOLD posting  future

Tags: Bernanke, BlackGold, commercial real estate, COMMODITY, ENERGY, GAS, gold, Harvard Real Estate, hedge fund, LOGI, obama, OIL, OIL PRICES, PEAK OIL, President Barack Obama, Putting Money to Work, Real estate, Thomas J. Powell

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The US Federal Reserve’s policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to a top member of the Communist hierarchy.

Cheng Siwei, former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and now head of China’s green energy drive, said Beijing was dismayed by the Fed’s recourse to “credit easing”. “We hope there will be a change in monetary policy as soon as they have positive growth again,” he said at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a policy gathering on Lake Como. “If they keep printing money to buy bonds it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard. Most of our foreign reserves are in US bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies,” he said.

China’s reserves are more than — $2 trillion, the world’s largest. “Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets,” he added. The comments suggest that China has become the driving force in the gold market and can be counted on to buy whenever there is a price dip, putting a floor under any correction.

I devoted Monday’s post to the rise of the inflation trade. Well, I thought I’d throw another log on the proverbial fire with the story below. The Chinese realize they are in possession of a bunch of rapidly depreciating paper and they are in the process of plowing said paper into any hard asset they can find. This process is, of course, the very definition of inflation.

CIC looks to pile cash into U.S. real estate - WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reports China’s $300 bln sovereign-wealth fund is eyeing big investments in distressed U.S. real estate, according to people familiar with the matter. To finance some of the deals, China may rely on the U.S. government.

In addition, CIC is weighing investing through one of the U.S. government’s bailout programs, the Treasury’s Public-Private Investment Program, known as PPIP. The program is designed to rid banks of toxic mortgage securities by enticing investors to buy these assets with financing from the U.S. government. Representatives for CIC, BlackRock, Invesco and Lone Star declined to comment.

Now concerns are mounting that the agency — and the U.S. taxpayer — may have to pay the price. The FHA insures loans secured with down payments as low as 3.5%. But values in many markets in which it has been increasing its activity have fallen far more than that in the past year. The result: A growing number of homeowners with FHA-backed loans owe more than their homes are worth and are more likely to default Officials worry that the resulting losses will help push the FHA’s reserves below the level required by Congress. The value of those reserves will be revealed in the agency’s annual review due Sept. 30. If they have fallen below the minimum, that could prompt a new round of questions about the role government should play in stabilizing the housing market.

David Stevens, the FHA’s new commissioner, said on Friday that the agency will continue to support the housing market and isn’t in danger of needing a taxpayer bailout. But some housing analysts warn that, if home prices decline much further, the agency would require taxpayer assistance for the first time in its 75-year history.

Tags: China, china investment corp., cic, commercial real estate, FHA, gold, taxpayer, us money printing

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Reasonable Regulation: That’s Allstate’s Stand

            Many companies involved in financial services cower when an official of any stature mentions the threat of national regulation, but Allstate has decided to embrace it. Since late April, Allstate has been pushing an advertising campaign that is rooted in support for creating a national regulation agency for all players in the financial industry, including insurance companies. Each ad in the four-part series, which runs in major magazines such as The Atlantic, touts the common theme of calling on “Congress to act boldly and quickly in drafting strong, comprehensive and clear federal regulation.”[1]

             Under the current system, insurance companies are regulated on a state-by-state basis, something that Allstate CEO Tom Wilson thinks needs be changed. In a national press release, Wilson argued:

 The American consumer is burdened with a patchwork of insurance regulatory systems that are cumbersome and ineffective in managing risks in an era of rapid change and innovation. American families need better protection from systemic risks and access to products and services that will help better manage their financial futures.[2]

            Allstate’s push for a national regulation system is bold. The campaign appears to be having an impact as the Obama administration has started tackling a number of vital decisions that could ultimately lead to national regulation for all financial services. President Obama himself may not have been directly affected by Allstate’s campaign, but according to PRnewswire.com at least one Congressperson has received more than $20,000 in campaign contributions from Allstate over the past four years. Clearly Allstate has identified the potential benefits that would come bundled with national regulation.

            One group that stands to be trapped and bound by the regulatory net of a national system is the stock brokers on Wall Street. The Obama administration has proposed a plan that would hold brokers to the stricter fiduciary standards of registered investment advisors. Under this plan, brokers would be required by law to act in their clients’ best interests, not their own. Also, with each piece of investment advice, brokers would be obligated to disclose what they stand to gain personally. A plan to implement a complete regulation overhaul is sure to be cumbersome and will take time to be implemented effectively. The Obama administration would be wise to have patience with this reform and comb through all of the complexities before attempting to have anything signed into law.

 At the end of the day, the federal regulatory overhaul will aim to force those in the financial system to be more transparent, something the Allstate campaign clearly addresses: “Only when there is transparency around valuing the risk in the financial system—including the role of insurance to help mitigate that risk—will we regain confidence in the economy.”[3]           

To view all of the Allstate advertisements in their entirety, visit allstate.com/fedreg.

Commercial Real Estate’s Role in the Next Bailout

            Banks have had little to celebrate over the past 20 plus months. Still dizzy from the debacle caused by residential real estate, banks nationwide fear the devastation that could soon be unleashed by the rising number of foreclosures in commercial real estate.

            The banks which provided the money to build endless numbers of commercial buildings originally did so because they, like so many others, believed occupancy and rent rates would always consistently rise. But, many owners of commercial buildings are now fueling another wave of foreclosures because they are not able to generate enough cash from tenants to cover their principal and interest payments. Because the loans have also been bundled and sold on Wall Street as commercial-backed mortgage securities (CMBS), the foreclosed buildings spark a ripple effect. Anticipating the severe consequences this could have on our economy, the Federal Reserve is struggling to contain the situation and prevent the need for a second wave of bank bailouts.

            According to Deutsche Bank, about $153 billion in loans that make up CMBS will come due by the end of 2012. The vast majority of these will not be eligible for refinancing through their lenders because the values of the properties have dropped so dramatically.[4] The losses will potentially cripple not only the owners of the commercial properties, but also anyone holding CMBS. Furthermore, because CMBS typically help drive pension and hedge funds, the pain will be widely spread.

            The only positive side of this mess will be the number of affordable investment opportunities for those looking to get into commercial real estate. Commercial real estate does perform in the long haul. But, because of the onslaught of new commercial buildings that sprouted in recent years, we are now experiencing an uncomfortable rebalancing of the industry. Loans that were made on loose credit and then bundled by Wall Street into dicey investment vehicles are all being exposed. However, the underlying properties are not rotten; they still make for sound investments.

            Like the residential market, the commercial real-estate industry was saturated with quick deals that turned sour because they were not thought through. Now, because the consequences stretched so far, the commercial real-estate industry has to be turned upside down and untangled. Although the untangling process will be turbulent, it will also be exposing an array of investment possibilities. Commercial real estate provides the venues for consumer spending. As the economy slowly recovers, so too will the demand for prime commercial real estate—something that will be readily available and reasonably priced in the immediate future.  

Keep Health Care in Our “Best Interest”

            I have been reluctant to bring the argument of national health-care reform to the Powell Perspective because it does not necessarily pertain to real estate, finance or investing. But, national health-care reform has the potential to have drastic impact on our economy, and for this reason I believe it deserves attention here.

            I have been convinced to raise this issue after overhearing a 20-something at the gas pump discuss the issue with someone of similar age. “Man, the whole thing is no big deal, I mean how often do we really go to the doctor anyway?” he said. As I drove off, I realized that the young man, healthy and probably feeling somewhat resilient, was simply not interested in the topic. He wanted to be able to disregard the topic so he could have more attention to focus on the issues that had a more immediate impact on him.

            This week will bring an important turn in the debate over national health-care reform. The Obama administration has committed itself to rethinking the plan before the President is scheduled to address Congress on September 9^th. President Obama is now going to be leading the arguments that he has been able to mostly sidestep thus far. What has me concerned is that the administration will recognize what I did while pumping my gas: The youth do not care. If the Obama administration addresses this and rebrands the issue to somehow get the youth behind it, then the approval rating for health-care reform could skyrocket. The same demographic that helped the President win the office, could now help direct a national issue that they may not be truly interested in for another 20 years. On the other hand, maybe it is time to address the demographic who will still be paying for this change long after we are gone. After all, the people that currently have a vested interest are at a standstill after becoming equally heated on both sides of the issue.

            Since its appearance in the Obama administration’s limelight, health-care reform has done nothing but become more complex. The plan is unclear. No one knows what it will look like, we only know what the media reports: We’re currently 37^th in the world in health-care quality. Death panels will dictate how long we live. The President will personally pull the plug on our grandma. If there are details to this administration’s plan, then they have all been shadowed by heated talk show hosts’ attempts to get the public screaming about something no one knows about.

            On September 9^th President Obama is going to be forced to add some structure to his administration’s plan. Thus far, no one has been able to dissect and discredit the plan because it has only taken shape through various town hall meetings and informal gatherings. In his first address to Congress since February, President Obama will be talking exclusively about health care. This national issue is going to take rigid leadership from the President. If he wants to make any progress he is going to have to involve the nation by getting the young to care and the old to stop shouting at one another and listen.

Tags: 60-40 split, advertising, advertising campaign, Allstate, alternative asset class, alternative investments, bailout, Bank, Basis Points, benefits, Bernanke, Billion, bold, business week, Cash For Clunkers Part One: Good For Business?, cmbs, commercial real estate, commerical backed mortgage securities, Compounding Interest, confidence, Congress, contrarian investing, Credit, deutche bank, due diligence, economics, economy, ELP Capital, fiduciary, Finance, financial, Financial Future, Financial services, forbes, Geithner, harvard business review, Harvard Real Estate, health care reform, health-care, Hedge against inflation, Inflation, Investing, investment advice, market fluctuation, Money, Money Market, national regulation, newsweek, obama administration, Paulson, Piggy Bank, President Barack Obama, principal and interest payments, private investing, Putting cash to work, Putting Money to Work, Real estate, real estate asset class, real estate assets, real estate trends, Resources, Retirement, risk analysis, Ronald Reagan, Rule of 72, scared, Short Sales, Smart Money, Standing In The Rain, stock and bond split, tangible assets, The Atlantic magazine, The Powell Perspective, Thomas J. Powell, thomas powell, tom powell, Tom Wilson, traditional investment, transparency, Trillion, Trust, Trust But Verify, volatility, Wall Street, Wall Street Journal

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