Tag Archives: Black Swan


DITMo: Red Heifer versus Black Swan

by Peter J. de Marigny Introducing “The Red Heifer” in Capital Markets A “Red Heifer” is a rare event condition, however, it is an event that differs from a “Black Swan” in that it is not a return observation within a sample of chained return measurements.  A “Red Heifer” event is one that creates its own discrete data series.  A […]

DITMo: Death of the Black Swan

by Peter J. de Marigny “I cannot get there from here, baby And I don’t care where I’m goin’ Change, Unchained… Nothing Stays the Same” Lyrics from the Van Halen song, Unchained, may be applied to investors’ skeptical view of how asset returns are “chained” together for attributions.  These “chained” returns are then used to create an attribution of returns […]

Hundredth Monkey Phenomenon: A Monkey or A Black Swan?

100th Monkey Phenomenon: A Monkey or a Black Swan? Pj de Marigny, DITMo Strategies Director, GARP, S. California Chapter 23Oct2008, Newport Beach, CA. In the Ken Keyes, Jr book “Hundredth Monkey” (http://www.amazon.com/Hundredth-Monkey-Ken-Keyes-Jr/dp/094202401X)there exists a theory that ‘thoughts, views, and concerns are transmitted mind to mind.’ This Hundredth Monkey phenomenon may be used to predict trends in consumer products and is […]

deMarigny: Taleb Almost Has Solution Right

In today’s article: “Taleb offers a universal solution to our ills” (Published July 14, 2009 at 10:46 AM “THE DEAL”) Prof. Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” a book about the likelihood of outlier events otherwise believed to be improbable, profers a solution to the current debt and liquidity malaise.  He says to make a mandatory conversion of all public […]