Author Archives: Bret Rosenthal

About Bret Rosenthal

Interpreting the news that moves markets. Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds

Stock Market Strategy / Precious Metals Outlook: Reprint of RCM October Letter to Limited Partners

We disseminated the following letter in October. Due to the events of this week and subsequent market behavior I feel a reprint is in order.   The Gold price approaches $1,400/oz and the Silver price is poised to breach $27/oz. A paradigmatic shift is occuring in the precious metals arena. Understanding and awareness will be required for those wishing to enjoy the parabolic [...]

A Study of the Seasonality in Gold Prices

Precious Metals Outlook: A look at seasonality suggests the best of 2010 is in the offing… My last post, A Trifecta of PBOC Announcements Gives Owners of Gold a Winning Ticket, focused on the compelling fundamental developments emerging in the precious metals arena. We have witnessed a 3.5%+ increase in Gold prices since that post on August 4th.  Today, I’d like to add [...]

Precious Metals Outlook,Stock Market Strategy and Worldwide Liquidity Update

Precious Metals Outlook: Bloomberg TV Headline: Goodby Gold Bloomberg TV ran the above story yesterday morning, interviews were conducted and a consensus was formed. Based on this simple indicator I would say that Gold Prices bottomed yesterday at around $1159.  We will call this indicator the ‘Fin. TV’ indicator. You may recall how unbelievably accurate the Fin. TV indicator was in [...]

Liquidity Expands + Credit Markets Improve = Equity Market Rally

Stock Market Strategy: All signs point to a continuation of the current rally. We will continue to use the direction of liquidity and the behavior of the credit markets as our fundamental guides to equity investing. The primary news story making the rounds today involves the European bank stress test results. I have included the official results and accompanying statement [...]

Stock Market Strategy: The More Things Change the More They Stay the Same

I must begin today’s missive with an ebullient congratulations to my good friend Blaine Bell! The wedding in Napa Valley this past weekend was beautiful, the bride radiant and the party atmosphere prodigious. While my computer did make the trip to Napa, it was used for portfolio management only. Any free time this past week was spent in the lovely [...]

Precious Metals & Credit Report: A Refresher Course & An Update

Guest Post by Don Coxe (courtesy of Zero Hedge) Don Coxe Dissects Gold, As “The Oldest-Established Store Of Value Moves To Center Stage” …We think that future historians may well report that the moment when gold once again became a store of value was when the dollar began soaring in response to the stench of seared Greece—and gold climbed right [...]

Stock Market Strategy: A Follow Up – Transition From Short to Long

On Friday of last week I outlined a case for impending equity market strength. Please refer to this post titled, Stock Market Strategy: Reduce Shorts Expect Equity Market Rally , for complete details. Today, I would like to review recent news events and the market’s subsequent reaction to see if our bullish call has horns. To begin, I’m going to [...]

Stock Market Strategy: Reduce Shorts Expect Equity Market Rally

The Bear is Full Right Now & May Need Time to Digest The Grizzly we stalked in April and found in May has been devouring pathetic bulls for the last six weeks. The time may have arrived for this satiated animal to take a break. Please refer to the chart of the NYSE Composite below for a clear picture of [...]

Week in Review: NYSE Comp. in Defined Downtrend, Credit Market Troubles Continue as Europe Leads the Decline, NFP Data Disappoints

The news moving markets today centers around fears about renewed economic weakness and continued credit market deterioration. I have included a number of stories below offering a good cross-section of the situation. Meanwhile, traditional technical analysis helps tone down the noise and offers a pure indication of who is in control: the buyers or the sellers.  To that end, the [...]

Stalking the Bear Part 5: The Final Installment

No need to stalk anymore, the Grizzly is now in plain sight and gorging itself on hapless bulls.  I started the ‘Stalking’ series on March 30th with the intention of raising the awareness of readers to the dangers lurking in the financial forest. From the April highs to the recent May low, the S&P500 dropped 14.6%, NASD Comp. 15.6% and the [...]