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Time to check in with the Greek narrative. The hysteria has quieted down as new backroom deals to avert a meltdown are reported with some regularity.  However, the attempts to sweep Greece’s problems under the proverbial rug are occasionally sidetracked by a pack of rioters, or as is the case below, by the bond vigilantes. If rates continue to creep higher for Greece no amount of posturing will suffice to avert this funding crisis…

Greek borrowing costs imperil budget plans – WSJ

WSJ reports the high interest rates Greece must pay to borrow money are threatening the county’s ambitions to cut its deficit, raising again the specter it may need external aid. Many in Europe breathed a sigh of relief last week when Greece successfully sold €5 billion ($6.85 billion) in government bonds in an auction that saw investors clamoring for the debt. The sale was seen as a key test: The country needs to borrow about €54 billion this year. But debt buyers are demanding higher premiums than officials in Athens anticipated when they planned the 2010 budget, and when they proposed to European Union authorities in January a plan to trim last year’s €30 billion budget gap by €9 billion this year. Indeed, Greece’s filings with the EU rest on assumptions implying that this year and next the country will pay an average interest rate of about 4.7% on its new debt. That figure is consistent with the rates paid on existing Greek bonds, mostly issued in better times. But in last week’s auction, Greece had to pay 6.25% for a 10-year loan—about three percentage points above what Germany pays for similar debt. 

…While the bond vigilantes are alive and well in Greece they are apparently asleep everywhere else.  As the story below describes, credit liquidity has rebounded significantly from the veritable seize up in January and February, which in turn has facilitated an equity market recovery….

Credit market springs to life – WSJ

WSJ reports companies are aggressively borrowing in the debt markets once again—a sign of renewed confidence in the world economy following recent fears that struggling European countries could have difficulty financing their budget deficits. In the U.S., bond sales by companies such as Bank of America Corp. and GMAC Financial Services are on pace to conclude their busiest week since the beginning of the year. In Europe, borrowing by companies so far in March is already more than 60% of February’s totals. “It tells us that financial liquidity is very much on the rise,” said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Investors Service. “No longer do corporations suffer from a dearth of liquidity. This puts them in a better position to take advantage of opportunities that arise.” So far in 2010, U.S. corporations have issued $195.2 billion of debt, excluding government-guaranteed bonds, according to data provider Dealogic, up from $166.8 billion during the same period in 2009.

…In fact, credit investors are so desperate for product it seems anything with a yield will do, as evidenced by the story below….

Buyers scramble for California bonds – LA Times

LA Times reports robust investor demand allowed California on Thursday to increase the size of a bond offering to $2.5 billion from $2 billion. The tax-free general-obligation bonds, which will fund voter-approved infrastructure projects, attracted orders totaling $1.38 billion from individual investors Tuesday and Wednesday. With just $620 million of the original $2-billion deal left, the state took in $3.3 billion in orders from institutional investors Thursday. To fill more of those orders, Treasurer Bill Lockyer raised the deal to $2.5 billion.

Tags: bond vigilantes, California, credit markets, EU, Greece, greek

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March 10th, 2010

Tags: budget deficit, DXY, investment strategy, OIL, rosenberg, Treasury, vix, Zero Hedge

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Jim Rogers, the perennial purveyor of logic and reason, weighs in on Greece, the Euro and governements’ shameful attack on the “speculator”

BE ADVISED: The video you are about the witness may cause temporary confusion mixed with bewilderment.  It may sound like Jim is speaking a language you cannot identify; rest assured the language is English.  However, he is using an archaic form of the language not usually seen on traditional financial news networks. The linguistic root he utilizes centers around truth and clarity. The side effects are similar to those associated with the inhalation of  air infused with increased oxygen. Your vision will become acute and your understanding of the world around you more coherent, which will of course cause some dizziness. After viewing, the operation of heavy machinery is not recommended.

 To view this video, please click here.

Tags: euro, Greece, jim rogers

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Greek funding update: Deal complete, interest acceptable, funding crisis averted for now….

New Greek €5 Billion 10 Year Bond Prices At 300 Over Midswaps, 326 bps Over 2020 Bund, Comes With 6.25% Coupon 

        Greek debt chief says bids for 10-year bond at EUR14 bln – DJ

DJ reports the Greek government’s offering of 10-year bonds has attracted EUR14 billion in bids, and will close soon, the head of the country’s debt management agency said. In the wake of a new package of austerity measures announced Wednesday, the government earlier launched an offering of 10-year bonds through a group of lead managers that comprises Barclays Capital, HSBC Holdings, National Bank of Greece, Nomura and Piraeus Bank. “The bond offering is going very well, beyond expectations,” said Petros Christodoulou. The government aims to raise EUR5 billion through the offering, but it appears to be heavily oversubscribed. After launch, Greece cut price guidance on the EUR5 billion, 300 basis points over mid-swaps from 310 basis points… “The bidding so far shows that confidence has returned to the Greek bond market,” a senior government official said. “It is a very good development. Everyone is breathing easier now.”

Guest post from Bill H.. His take on the CDS market is dead on and thought provoking, enjoy…

Credit default swap lunacy!

Dubai, Greece and the rest of the PIIGS, now Britain and next the U.S.. Speculators are pushing currencies and sovereign bonds and yields higher and lower almost at will using the CDS (credit default swaps) market. These rocket scientists hedge and or speculate (even attack) currencies with these CDS products and go to sleep at night with a clear conscience. They sleep tight each night not caring what destruction they have caused real people and the real economy and take mistaken solace that if say Greece were to fail “they are hedged”.

I am going to tell you that NO ONE with any CDS product is hedged against anything! First you must understand that if sovereigns begin to default, there will be no end until the last, biggest and most egregious financial entity falls (the U.S. Treasury). These CDS products look good on the books but who can afford to lose and make the winners whole? What currency do you get paid in if you win? My point here is the “counter party risk”. The only way a CDS product could be secure and iron clad is if it were written by a Gold depository and payable in Gold which has been authenticated, assayed and audited as to purity and it actually being there for payment.

We hear that CDS spreads widen for this country or that one. We have even heard this about the U.S. from time to time. But think about how stupid it would be to “insure” against a U.S. default with ANY paper product issued by ANY issuer. When the U.S. finally goes whether it be through default or hyperinflation, the Dollar will ultimately “go away”. So what if you were right? Are you getting paid in Dollars that became worthless? Isn’t this what you were insuring against in the first place? So you win but you receive bazillions of pieces of the very same paper you were insuring against and thus YOU LOSE?

Oh I see…you insured against a U.S. default and will get paid in Euros. This makes all kinds of sense since a U.S. default certainly won’t submarine Europe. This logic works forwards, backwards or in either direction! What I am saying here is that once ANY sovereign default occurs, IT”S OVER! EVERYTHING paper goes boom and in a puff of smoke so does ALL the “supposed” value. EVERYTHING paper blows away and ONLY assets that you can touch, feel and actually USE (manufacturing, farmland, mining) will have or retain value!

THE only true hedge against ANY sovereign default is either Gold or Silver, period. Gold and Silver are real money and will accrue ALL of the “printed” monies’ value over the years. This is a difficult concept to understand but all the fiats that have ever been printed in the past and present really had no value other than “confidence” value. Each Dollar, Pound, Yen, Euro etc. that has come into existence will “spill” its value into the metals upon its demise. I can’t believe that no one has yet (other than Jim Sinclair) publicly explained the stupidity employed in the “CDS protection” scheme.

Credit default swaps are not protection, they are nuclear land mines scattered across the land that will go off in succession after the first one is tripped. OR as Mr. Sinclair says, they will print to oblivion and wipe out all paper values through hyperinflation. Either way if you have wealth tied up in metal or mining shares, you will win in the end. Have you ever wondered why there is no such animal as a credit default swap on physical Gold? Could this be because Gold cannot default? Taking a leap forward, when everything else is defaulting (including and especially CDS products), doesn’t it make sense that fear capital will seek that that cannot default? Now that’s simple logic! Regards, Bill H.

Tags: CDS, credit default swap, eur, gold, Greece, greek, PIIGS, sovereign debt, US Treasury

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My Feb. 25th remarks  stressed the need for a solid defense based on the current market environment. Today, let’s have some fun and talk offense.

We at RCM have carried the precious metals torch for quite some time. We have explained on countless occasions via this blog, via radio interviews and through one on one conversations, that prodigious fiat currency creation around the world will lead to one unassailably predictable outcome: Higher Gold and Silver prices.   

We have not wavered from our stance despite, at times, an overwhelming din that spews forth from the chorus of naysayers and neophytes. However, we are not so arrogant as to avoid the necessary and important process of challenging our own beliefs. We continue to question our own conviction by analyzing the behavior of Gold and Silver vs. the US$, Euro, GBP and other currencies.

The results of this analysis from the past two weeks are in and the prognosis remains bullish with an increased likelihood of  ’wildly’. We have often stated that the true inflection point for Gold will come when it rises in price vs. all currencies at the same time. Well, in true Shakespearean fashion,  I say to the Caesars of today, beware the Ides of March….

Gold Surges With DXY Positive For The Day

No, you are not reading that chart wrong. Gold just surged to near two month highs, hitting $1130/oz, or $12 higher, even as the dollar is green for the day. The fiat currency inferno is picking up, as traders refuse to keep their money in anything but gold or dollars – proof of tungsten gold counterfeiting is not helping the gold shorts. From the 2010 lows, the currency devaluation “safety trade” has been Gold and the USD, in a ratio of 5-1!

Read More…

Meet The New Regime: Gold And Dollar Coincident  

For all those who expect to see a strong dollar result in lower gold prices: our condolences. Gold is now as much a flight-to-safety target, as the the ra(p/b)idly devaluable dollar (and all other fiat currencies), as has been repeatedly observed on Zero Hedge. The chart below demonstrates that over the past three weeks, not only has dollar strength resulted in gold strength, it has resulted in gold strength at a 6X multiple.

Read More…

Another Record For Euro-Denominated Gold  

As the euro is plunging (and dollar by implication surging) with gold yet again flat and looking like it may turn positive for the day, gold denominated in euros just hit another all time record of €827.

Read More…

In ancient Rome the government clipped coins to devalue the currency.  Nero, in 64 CE, was the first to come up with the idea to actually debase coins by reducing their content. Today, currency debasement has become an art form as evidenced by the story below. For our society, will the outcome of such debasement mirror that of Rome?….

US Dollar Money Supply Is Underreported

March 1, 2010 – As the financial crisis has unfolded over the last two years, the Federal Reserve has been responding in a variety of unprecedented ways.  Therefore, it is logical to assume that these never-before-used actions have altered long-established ways of viewing things.  One area that has been impacted is the US dollar money supply.

The quantity of dollars in circulation is being underreported by relying upon the traditional and now outdated definitions used to calculate M1 and M2.  These ‘Ms’ are calculated and reported by the Federal Reserve based on the following guidelines that identify the several different forms of dollar currency used in commerce:

Read More…

Tags: currencies, DXY, euro, Federal Reserve, GBP, gold, precious metals, silver, US$

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The equity markets dropped on average 1.5% Monday and this morning another 1.5% decline is underway.  I mentioned, in A Review of the RCM Investment Strategy, the defensive posture we at RCM have taken. I said, “We have deployed our assets in a manner we feel most appropriate for the environment we are experiencing.”

The following news items should help illustrate what was meant when I wrote, “…the environment we are experiencing.”….

Lending falls at epic pace – WSJ

WSJ reports U.S. banks posted last year their sharpest decline in lending since 1942, suggesting that the industry’s continued slide is making it harder for the economy to recover. While top-tier banks are recovering at a faster clip, the rest of the industry is still suffering, according to a quarterly report from the FDIC. Banks fighting for survival, especially those plagued by losses on commercial real estate, are less willing to extend loans, siphoning credit from businesses and consumers. Besides registering their biggest full-year decline in total loans outstanding in 67 years, U.S. banks set a number of grim milestones. According to the FDIC, the number of U.S. banks at risk of failing hit a 16-year high at 702. More than 5% of all loans were at least three months past due, the highest level recorded in the 26 years the data have been collected. And the problems are expected to last through 2010. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said banks are “bumping along the bottom of the credit cycle” and that the number of bank failures in 2010 will likely eclipse the 140 recorded last year.

If “Banks fighting for survival, especially those plagued by losses on commercial real estate, are less willing to extend loans” then what do you think will happen when the following development gains steam?….

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Just when they thought the worst of the mortgage crisis was behind them, billions of dollars in bad loans from the debacle may be rising from the dead and creeping back on the balance sheets of the largest U.S. banks.

Big lenders including Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo may be forced to repurchase troubled home loans from insurers and mortgage-finance giants like Freddie Mac that had agreed to take on risks associated with those assets during the real estate boom.

The banks are setting aside more reserves to cover the potential costs of such repurchases, cutting into earnings….

Read More…

Of course, we can spend all day debating the reasons for banks’ lack of desire to lend, but the real crux of the issue remains the employment picture. The American people, due in large part to the horrible jobs market, are reigning in spending hence needing less credit….

Mass Layoffs Surge In January, Highest Since July 2009

The BLS has reported Mass Layoff Statistics for January 2010 – the result is plain ugly, and kills any hope for sustained improvement in unemployment data. Not seasonally adjusted Mass Layoff Events (defined as at least 50 persons being laid off from a single employer) surged in January to 2,860, from 2,310 in January, from a 12 month low of 1,371 in September 2009. This is the biggest monthly surge since July when the Mass Layoff Events hit a 12 month high of 3,054. In terms of actual workers, January saw 278,679 initially laid off people. The deterioration was mirrored in the much less credible seasonally adjusted data. Obviously companies were waiting for the end of the year to dump as many people as they could.

ECONX Initial Claims Report Suggests a Much Weaker Labor Sector

The initial claims data weakened for the week ending Feb. 20 as the claims figure increased from 474,000 to 496,000. The consensus expected claims to decline to 460,000. Many analysts, including us, believed that inclement weather conditions across the U.S. would prevent many workers from filing new claims. If this scenario is true, then the actual initial claims figure would be much closer to 550,000… Continuing claims rose a modest 6,000 to 4.617 mln for the week ending Feb. 13. The figure for the week ending Feb. 6 was revised up from 4.570 mln, and the consensus expected claims to remain at that previous level… The job creation data looks to be minimal. The unadjusted claims data from Feb. 6 was down by 85,842 claims while the emergency benefits figure declined 317,933 claims. The decline in original claims is mostly due to workers running out of benefits and it seems the weather made it difficult to process extended benefit applications.

Meanwhile, the health of the credit markets remains the number one issue facing the equity markets today.  You may recall my Feb. 18th post ‘Credit Markets Warning Signal, Foreign Demand for US Treasury Falls ‘ in which I outlined the very real possibility that European credit constriction was migrating across the pond. Well, the following stories add credibility to that concern…

Greek Treasuries Pancake As Bond Vigilantes Chant Death Chorus

Ah, curve pancaking – better known in bond parlance as the death rattle. The Greek 4 Year GGB just traded wider of the 15 Year at a spread of -4bps (yup, negative). This, to continue the parlance lesson, means the bond vigilantes are now pretty sure how the Greek situation will play out. Oh, and Greece, all the best with that €5 billion10 year bond issuance. The 1 Year spot his exploded from just over 200 bps on January 1, to just under 5%, a rout for all short-term GGB holders. We are anxiously awaiting RBS’ rebuttal.

Read More…  

California postpones bond sale – WSJ

California One Step Closer To Insolvency After State Cancels $2 Billion General Obligation Bond Sale

Five days ago a great white hope appeared for the great bankrupt Golden State (Baa1/A-), in the form of $2 billion in GO bonds, which were supposed to be promptly syndicated via underwriters JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. This would have been the first bond sale for California since November: a critical milestone as the state creeps ever closer to a full-on default. Unfortunately, the creeping just turned into a casual jog after Jane Wells (@janewells) just tweeted that California has cancelled its bond sale “after legislature fails to approve cash management flexibility bill [the] Treasurer said he needed to attract investors.”And seriously, did California think it would succeed where so many other high yield issuers have recently failed?

Read More…

I will rest my case today with a request to review my post titled ‘Looming Defaults and the Effect on Currencies, US$ vs. Euro’.  In this post I describe the competitive devaluation process unfolding and the similarities between Greece and California.

Tags: bad loans, California, commercial real estate, credit markets, euro, FDIC, Greece, initial jobless claims, Treasury, unemployment, US Treasury, US$

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I have just now ended a conversation with a long-time client and Limited Partner (LP) of our Fortune’s Favor I, LP, (FFI) fund. As I hang up the phone I begin to write. Our healthy dialogue crystallized some thoughts that demand sharing.

To begin, a review of the investment strategy that guides FFI may be in order. You may witness our approach in its entirety @ http://www.rosenthalcapital.com/. However, for a quick overview allow me to illustrate: We believe precious metals offer the best opportunity for return of capital as well as return on capital.  The rest of our portfolio is currently deployed in a defensive manner and can be viewed under the ‘Letters& Articles’  page on our website.

LP asks: Why are you not buying ATT (T) shares at a 6.75% yield?

We answer: ATT’s profit margins are down 20% in the last 12 months along with revenue and EPS declines. Meanwhile, debt has ballooned 50% over the last 2 years with debt to equity standing at about 63%. As always, there is a reason the dividend yield looks enticing, one must get paid to take on the increased risk of a dividend cut. However, these issues are just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. 2010 has ushered in a new round of credit constriction (Please see the Feb. 18th post for more detail). $7.3 billion of corporate debt issuance was pulled from the European market in the last 30 days.  $2 billion have poured out of high yield bond funds in the U.S. over the last 2 weeks. These are clear early warning signs that a credit crisis is building again; that is not an environment conducive to investments like ATT.

LP asks: Your penchant to preserve capital held you back last year.  Why not be more upbeat and aggressive this year? Isn’t it time to be less “hunkered down”?

We answer: True, our priority (as outlined by our investment philosophy) is to preserve capital.  We are somewhat surprised we must defend that obvious and essential creed.  As of Dec. 31st, 2009 the value of  FFI was higher than it was at the start of 2008.  Moreover, while the S&P 500 suffered dramatic volatility over the last 2 years, dropping 53% at one point, our fund avoided gut-wrenching swings, never experiencing a single month of double digit losses.

We would love to be more upbeat and aggressive, but the investment environment simply does not lend itself to such a stance.  We can’t determine our investment philosophy simply by wishing on a star.  Last year the equity markets were supported by overwhelming government intervention. As that support begins to wane reality will return with a vengeance.  January’s 5% decline in the S&P 500 is a testament to that theory as are the following two stories:

Consumer Confidence Plunges From 56.5 To 46.0, Consensus At 55.0, Present Situation Index Lowest Since February 1983

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell drastically to 46.0 in February from a revised figure of 56.5 (previously 55.9).
The reported consumer confidence index for February was much lower than our forecast for a reading of 54.0.
The Bloomberg market consensus estimate was 55.0 with individual estimates in a range from 50.9 to 59.0.
In February, the two main components of the consumer confidence index were as follows:
February Present Situation: 19.4 versus 25.2 in January (prev. 25.0)
February Expectations: 63.8 versus 77.39 in January (prev. 76.5)

Home Prices Double Dip Validated As Unadjusted Case-Shiller Numbers Indicate Third Sequential MoM Decline- Zero Hedge

After a third sequential decline in unadjusted Case-Shiller housing prices, is it ok to come out of a contrarian shell and proclaim the government-subsidized home price appreciation rally dead? Afdter the unadjusted Composite-20 reading peaked at 146.7 in September, the index has slowly declined for 3 months in a row and is now at 145.9. The only good thing one can say is that the rate of decline has not accelerated. However, with just over a month left on MBS QE, we are not very hopeful for a second V-recovery to appear in home prices any time soon.

So, in conclusion, we are not “hunkered down”.  We have deployed our assets in a manner we feel most appropriate for the environment we are experiencing.  Meanwhile, we continue to conduct research and build a stable of quality high-growth investments ready to be saddled at the first opportunity. 

Never forget, over 30% of  FFI assets are Rosenthal family funds.  You can rest assured we will treat the management of the fund with the greatest of care.

Tags: case-shiller, consumer confidence, FFI, Fortune's Favor, home prices, investment strategy

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A maelstrom of misinterpretation dominates the financial media outlets today in regards to last night’s Fed action.

Click here for my audio post on the recent decision by the Fed to increase the discount rate.

After listening to the above post, Gary Rosenthal had the following comments on the Fed move:

1) Federal Reserve banks currently have a record high of $1.14 Trillion of excess reserves on deposit with the Fed. Thus, an increase in the discount rate is meaningless because the banks have no need to borrow and will not be borrowing for a very long time.

2) Therefore, we believe raising the discount rate at this point was merely a ploy to strengthen the US$ in advance of a major Treasury auction next week.

3) Note the anomalous strong behavior of Gold during the last 72hrs in the face of overwhelmingly “bearish” news: IMF announces further Gold sales, Fed increases discount rate and Gold Feb. futures/option expiration next week.

Tags: Fed, gold, IMF, Treasury, US$

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The following story represents perhaps the largest obstacle facing equity market integrity today.  The previous statement is not hyperbole. The collapse of equity prices in 2008 was presaged by a python-like constriction of credit. If the private sector cannot access credit then business grinds to a halt and as we saw in 2008 economic cataclysm ensues… 

Credit markets flash hottest warning signal since crisis

European credit markets are flashing the most serious warnings signs in a year as the yields on risker bonds rise sharply and a string of companies cancel share flotations, raising fears that the recovery may falter in coming months.

The Markit iTraxx Crossover index measuring yields on lower-grade debt has jumped by almost 130 basis points since mid-January to 514, while the main index of investment grade bonds has jumped by a third to 93. “This is the biggest move since the financial crisis in early 2009, said Gavan Nolan, Markit’s credit analyst.

The rating agency Moody’s said market ructions have led to a “material” rise in borrowing costs over the last month, prompting the cancellation of debt issues by the Dutch energy group New World Resources, Italy’s Snai betting group, and the UK’s Travelport. Sixteen companies wordwide have pulled debt issues worth a $7.3bn (£4.66bn) since mid-January, including Canada’s Bombardier.

Read More…

…Will the Sovereign debt issues of Europe migrate across the pond?  The following story suggests the answer may be yes. The lack of foreign demand for US debt will have the effect of increasing rates. However, since an increase in rates would be the death knell of our supposed economic recovery we would expect the Fed to attempt to fill any gap foreigners create. These actions would be, of course, US$ bearish. So while the talk of an end to Q.E. intensifies reality of the situation suggests otherwise….  

Foreign demand falls for Treasuries – Financial Times 

Financial Times reports foreign demand for US Treasury securities fell by a record amount in December as China purged some of its holdings of government debt, the US Treasury department said on Tuesday. China sold $34.2 bln in US Treasury securities during the month, the US Treasury said on Tuesday, leaving Japan as the biggest holder of US government debt with $768.8 bln. China overtook Japan as the largest holder in September 2008. The shift in demand comes as countries retreat from the “flight to safety” strategy they embarked on upon during the worst of the global economic crisis and could mean the US will have to pay more to service its debt interest. For China, the shedding of US debt marks a reversal that it signalled last year when it said it would begin to reduce some of its holdings.

“Credit is a system whereby a person
who cannot pay gets another person
who cannot pay to guarantee that he can pay …”
Charles Dickens (1812-1870)

Tags: China, Credit, credit markets, equity markets, Q.E., sovereign debt, US Treasury, US$

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Euro zone gives Greece 30 days to show good on deficit – Reuters

The tsunami of Greek fear begins to ebb and like proverbial clockwork the US$ drops almost 1%, the equity markets rally over 1% and Gold runs back above the $1100 level up over 1.5%.

By now, as readers of this blog, the financial market behavior described above should come as no surprise.  I exposed the market’s playbook on Feb. 9th and directly addressed the perennial gold bears by saying, “They have not owned Gold during its nearly 300% increase over the last 10 years, but somehow, through a haze of delusional arrogance, they are sure prices have peaked.”

In the five days since that comment Gold has rallied 5%.  Coincidence? Maybe. I’ll concede, sometimes we’re simply lucky, but when understanding is acute luck becomes more pervasive and that, my friends, is called success.

For the last few months, the fear of  reduced stimulus and quantitative easing has gripped the markets. In an apparent effort to support the US$, government officials and Fed members have raised the expectations of economic growth and reduced expectations of Q.E.. I have, time and again, called this type of  jawboning nothing more than propaganda. I explained as much in my Jan. 20th post and highlighted the “need for a new round of stimulus” demand from the conference of mayors on Jan. 22nd as the beginning of a shift in the wind.

Well, today, I would like to say, the wind is a steady 10-15kts in the direction of stimulus and looks to be increasing over the coming weeks.  Evidence for this forecast below…

IMF tells bankers to rethink inflation – WSJ

WSJ reports the IMF’s top economist, Olivier Blanchard, says central bankers should consider aiming for a higher inflation rate than they do currently to lessen the chances of repeating the recent severe recession. Mr. Blanchard said the global economic downturn revealed flaws in macroeconomic policy, especially the reliance primarily on interest rates to manage economies. Although Japan had fallen into a decade-long funk despite low inflation and low interest rates, “most people convinced themselves that the Japanese didn’t know what they were doing,” Mr. Blanchard said in an interview. In a new paper with two other IMF economists, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia and Paolo Mauro, Mr. Blanchard says policy makers need to consider radically different approaches to deal with major banking crises, pandemics or terrorist attacks. In particular, the IMF paper suggests shooting for a higher-level inflation in “normal time in order to increase the room for monetary policy to react to such shocks.” Central banks may want to target 4% inflation, rather than the 2% target that most central banks now try to achieve, the IMF paper says.

Australian Finance Minister Says More Stimulus Needed

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Australian Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner said the nation’s economy remains fragile and that it will require more stimulus this year.

Australia’s long-term debt, accumulated through the global financial crisis, is also a serious matter, Tanner said on Network Ten’s “Meet the Press” program.

Read More…

G-7 Vows to Keep Economic Stimulus Even as Budget Deficits Grow

Feb. 7 (Bloomberg) — Group of Seven finance ministers pledged to press ahead with economic stimulus measures even as investors intensify their focus on mounting budget deficits.

Read More…

In conclusion, I’d like to accentuate the following analysis of the Japanese experience with private sector de-leveraging. I feel these issues are at the very center of the problems facing our markets…

Richard Koo’s book about the lessons from Japan’s balance sheet recession: The crux of his analysis is that governments have no option but to stimulate aggressively all the while the private sector is de-leveraging. ANY attempt at fiscal cuts simply results in renewed recession and a further loss of confidence, thus making it even harder and more costly to sustain any subsequent recovery and hence the budget deficit ends up bigger than before.

Tags: equity markets, euro, gold, Greece, IMF, Inflation, QE, Quantitative Easing, Stimulus, US$

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