IDC & Gartner Confirm Business PC Upgrade Cycle Gains Momentum

Finally, some positive economic news worth highlighting. Below are two independent reports on the computer industry.  Q1, typically a slow period for the industry, has exhibited strong year-over-year growth. This alone would not be surprising as last year was a disaster so comparables were easy. However, Q1 growth added to a strong Q4 suggests a trend is building .

This is economic data we can sink our teeth into. The data was not created by government, hence not subject to revisions and easily manipulated models.  Apparently, a business PC upgrade cycle is underway, which would suggest investment opportunity beckons….

PC growth passes 24% – propelled by strong emerging market dynamics and improving business spending in q1 2010, according to IDC

The worldwide PC market grew 24.2% in the first quarter of 2010 compared to one year ago, when the market declined by almost 7% – the lowest growth since 2001. According to the IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, both Desktop and Portable PC shipments exceeded expectations, with solid growth rates driven by sustained consumer demand and renewed commercial buying. The year-over-year gain in Desktop PCs reverses a series of quarterly declines that began in 3Q08. IDC attributes the renewed growth to continued recovery in emerging markets, improved business sentiments, and growth of specialized designs like All-in-One PCs. “The strong first quarter builds on the fourth quarter rebound and shows rising confidence in the PC supply chain and commercial client base along with persistent demand from consumers,” said Loren Loverde, vice president, IDC Worldwide Trackers. “The commercial gains are a cornerstone of market rebound that we’ve been expecting and are now seeing in the data. Despite continued strengthening of commercial demand and solid consumer and emerging market results, year-on-year growth is likely to slow in coming quarters as year-ago comparisons get more difficult. This is part of an expected recovery trend that should include strong second quarter performance and lift growth for the year to 15% or higher.”

Worldwide PC shipments grew 27% in 1Q10, says Gartner – DigiTimes

DigiTimes reports worldwide PC shipments totaled 84.3 million units in the first quarter of 2010, a 27.4% increase from the first quarter of 2009, according to preliminary results by Gartner. The first quarter results exceeded Gartner’s earlier market outlook in which the firm had been expecting first quarter PC shipments to grow 22%. “The stronger-than-expected growth was led by a robust recovery in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) PC market, which grew 24.8% in the first quarter of 2010,” said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. “All other regions recorded double-digit growth rates, although the US and Latin America were slightly lower than what we had expected.” “These first-quarter results indicate that the professional PC market is gradually picking up, driven by PC replacements in mature markets,” Kitagawa said. “With a relatively positive macroeconomic outlook, business demand was more forthcoming. Major PC replacement demand driven by Windows 7 will become more apparent in the second half of 2010 and the beginning of 2011.”

About Bret Rosenthal

Interpreting the news that moves markets. Principal of RCM, LLC, and founding partner of the Fortune's Favor Family of Funds
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